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Jerome Powell stepped down as Fed chair following the April meeting. The first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh concludes today. The Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh’s press conference half an hour later.Data from the CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks market expectations, shows a 99.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged. No surprise is expected. The main issue is not the rate decision itself: the tightening cycle is officially over, the easing cycle has yet to begin, and uncertainty remains over where the Fed will head during this in-between period under Warsh.US inflation is at its highest level in three years. It also remains unclear when the economic effects of the tensions with Iran will fade. For this reason, attention is focused less on the interest rate decision and more on what Warsh will say during the press conference.Warsh is no stranger to the Fed. He was appointed by George W. Bush in 2006, becoming the youngest Fed governor at the time at just 35 years old. He remained in the role until 2011, serving through the height of the 2008 global financial crisis.During the crisis, Warsh acted as the Fed’s liaison with Wall Street and played a role in the negotiations that helped Morgan Stanley survive. He left the Fed in 2011 after criticizing its balance sheet expansion policies. In the years that followed, he became one of the central bank’s most outspoken external critics at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.His appointment, made by the Trump administration, was confirmed by the Senate in an unusually partisan 54-45 vote and became official in May.The question now is whether Warsh will adopt a dovish tone and lay the groundwork for rate cuts by highlighting falling oil prices and AI-driven disinflation, or stick to the scenario already priced in by markets. He has previously criticized the Fed for “communicating too much” with markets, and he is also likely to face questions on that issue during the press conference.The dot plot will be the main area to watch. In the most recent projections released in March, seven officials expected no rate cuts in 2026. Among the others, seven projected a 25-basis-point cut, two expected 50 basis points, two forecast 75 basis points, and one anticipated 100 basis points of easing.Interest rate futures are currently pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by December. A decline in this projection in the updated dot plot would be considered positive for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.What Is the Latest Situation in Crypto Markets?For now, there is little sign of nervousness in the market. Volatility linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum has completely reversed its early-month increase and fallen to its lowest level in two weeks. The US 10-year Treasury yield has also eased to 4.43% after climbing above 4.55% following the outbreak of the war in late February. This yield is widely regarded as a key benchmark for overall borrowing costs across the economy. When it declines, financial conditions ease and risk assets gain some breathing room.
US Senate and House leaders have reached an agreement to advance a sweeping housing bill that includes a ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Housing reform, which has remained before Congress for years, has now entered its final stage with a provision that directly concerns the cryptocurrency industry.Senator Tim Scott, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Representative French Hill and Representative Maxine Waters released an updated version of the “21st Century ROAD to Housing Act” on Tuesday. The text, jointly endorsed by all four lawmakers, indicates that an agreement has been reached across both chambers and between Republicans and Democrats. Such a four-way compromise is rare, particularly in a politically sensitive area such as housing policy.The legislative package aims to increase housing supply in the US and prevent institutional landlords from dominating the market. In recent years, large investment funds and corporate buyers have been accused of purchasing single-family homes in bulk and converting them into rental properties, contributing to rapidly rising home prices and rents. The bill seeks to curb this trend and make it easier to introduce measures that expand housing supply.To address objections in the House, lawmakers added a three-year sunset provision to a disaster relief program. This was one of the concessions that emerged during the final stages of negotiations. Reaching this point was far from easy, as reconciling a broad housing policy package between the two chambers typically requires months of negotiations and mutual concessions.Scott said the legislation was the result of years of work to lower costs, expand housing supply, reduce bureaucracy, protect taxpayers and help more Americans become homeowners. He stressed that it was now time to finalize the bill and deliver meaningful relief to the American public. Warren, Hill and Waters similarly highlighted the bipartisan nature of the legislation and its practical benefits for Americans.How Did the CBDC Ban Enter the Bill?The bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC, or any digital asset “substantially similar” to one, until the end of 2030. Although the provision may initially appear unrelated to housing policy, it reflects a familiar tactic in Washington: attaching unrelated policies to must-pass legislation that is considered highly likely to become law.According to earlier reporting by journalist Eleanor Terrett, pressure to add the provision came from House Republicans. Opposition to CBDCs has gained increasing support within the Republican Party in recent years. The movement is largely driven by concerns that a central bank-issued digital currency could threaten individual privacy and give the government excessive control over financial transactions.The Trump administration’s opposition to CBDCs is also well established. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated last month that CBDCs were “not on the table,” adding that the administration’s main focus was finalizing the digital asset-focused Clarity Act. His comments align with the administration’s broader crypto policy: opposition to CBDCs alongside greater openness toward privately issued digital assets and stablecoin regulation.Next StepsAccording to Politico, citing Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the updated bill will now proceed to an initial procedural vote in the Senate. The outcome will provide an important indication of how quickly the rest of the legislative process could move.If the bill passes the Senate, it will then move to the House. A vote is expected shortly after lawmakers return from recess around June 23. If the process is completed, the legislation will be sent to the president’s desk.Once signed into law, the bill would establish a multi-year framework covering both US housing policy and the country’s official position on central bank digital currencies.
Crypto investors usually watch Fed meetings closely. This week, however, the key decision may come from Tokyo.The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1% at its meeting on Tuesday. If it happens, this would mark Japan’s highest interest rate level since 1995. From a distance, it may look like an ordinary central bank decision; for markets, the picture is far more complicated.Yen shorts at record levelsAccording to CFTC data, leveraged funds’ speculative short positions on the yen climbed above 115,000 contracts in the week of June 9. This is the highest level seen since November 2017. These positions are essentially large-scale bets that the yen will continue to weaken.If the BOJ raises rates as expected and then signals a shift toward tighter monetary policy, the rapid closing of these short positions could quickly move to the top of the market agenda. Closing yen short positions would push the yen higher; that would directly threaten yen-funded carry trade positions.The logic of the carry trade is simple: investors borrow in low-yielding yen and invest in higher-yielding risk assets. For years, this strategy has been one of the mechanisms supporting the bull run in Wall Street and developed market bond markets.Is the July 2024 scenario back on the table?The current setup bears a striking resemblance to what happened last year. When the BOJ raised rates in July 2024, yen shorts were also at record levels. Those who remember what followed know the sequence well: the rapid closing of short positions triggered a sharp rally in the yen, Japan’s Nikkei index came under pressure, Wall Street turned volatile, and Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to $50,000 in just one week.On the surface, this week’s setup looks similar. Of course, no cycle is an exact copy of another; but the positioning structure alone gives risk managers enough reason to watch closely.BOJ Governor Ueda’s tone will be decisiveIf the rate hike comes in line with expectations and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda uses cautious language, markets will likely remain calm. The real breaking point could come if Ueda signals that rates may rise faster, or points clearly toward levels above 1%. In such a scenario, the yen could strengthen sharply; that would weigh on global risk appetite.Crypto has historically been one of the asset classes most sensitive to sudden liquidity tightening. In scenarios like this, it is usually among the first markets to feel the impact.Other key developments this weekWhile the Bank of Japan decision stands out as the most critical event of the week, the broader calendar also looks busy.On Monday, South Korean financial giant Hanwha Investment & Securities invested $400 million in Dunamu, the operator of the country’s largest crypto exchange, Upbit. The deal gives Hanwha a 10% stake in Dunamu. Around $4.5 million worth of STRK token unlocks are also expected.On Tuesday, alongside the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, approximately $8 million worth of ARB token unlocks are scheduled.On Wednesday, the Eurozone’s annual inflation data, CPI, will be released. Both the forecast and the previous reading stand at 3.2%. At 21:00, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, with markets expecting no change from the current 3.75% level. The FOMC press conference will follow at 21:30.On Thursday, U.S. weekly jobless claims will be released at 15:30. The market forecast is 225,000, while the previous reading stood at 229,000.On Friday, U.S. stock markets will be closed for Independence Day. Binance will also delist COS, D, HIGH and MBOX on the same day.
Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 late Sunday. As the geopolitical risk premium that markets had been pricing in for months suddenly unwound, a broad wave of buying also spread across crypto assets.At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $65,605, up 1.90% over the past 24 hours. Its intraday low was $63,663, while its high stood at $65,935. Ethereum rose 2.8% to $1,720, XRP gained 3.5% to $1.19, and Solana advanced 4.2% to $71.11. The surprise performer of the day was Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, which climbed 7.5% to around $65. Peace deal and the Strait of HormuzCNN reported Sunday that the United States and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement set to take effect on Friday. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would lift its naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as the agreement was signed. The first announcement came from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Trump and Iranian state media confirmed it shortly afterward.The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes. The possibility of its closure had been one of the main factors keeping oil prices elevated in recent months. As that risk faded, crude oil prices saw one of their sharpest daily declines in three months. WTI futures fell 4.84% to $80.77 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 4.33% to trade at $83.53.Analysts: Crypto move was macro-drivenZeus Research analyst Dominick John said markets were repricing risk after the U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a broad risk appetite move. John described the rally as a positioning and risk rotation move rather than a change in underlying fundamentals.Min Jung of Presto Research painted a similar picture. She said Bitcoin and Ether benefited from improving risk appetite as the peace deal reduced concerns over further geopolitical escalation.Rick Maeda, markets director at crypto derivatives analytics platform Laevitas, described the move as “not a crypto-specific story, but macro relief beta amplified by thin weekend liquidity.” According to Maeda, the selling pressure began to ease after Trump’s remarks on the U.S.-Iran framework, which removed the risk premium from crude oil and lifted pressure from crypto.CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko offered the same framework: “The recovery in crypto was largely driven by a compression in the macro risk premium triggered by Trump’s latest signal that a deal was close. It pulled oil lower while lifting Asian markets at the same time.”Asian markets turned greenWith geopolitical risk receding, equities also started the day on strong footing. The Nikkei 225 was up about 4.89% around midday, nearing a record close. The Kospi jumped 5.63%. The Hang Seng rose 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index was up 2.53%. S&P 500 futures gained 1.2%, while the dollar weakened against major currencies.Fed week and institutional flowsAnother source of uncertainty is on the agenda this week: the Federal Reserve will hold its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. BTSE COO Jeff Mei said Warsh’s remarks would offer “the first clues about how interest rate policy will take shape for the rest of the year.” Maeda listed the key factors to watch as confirmation of the deal and the terms around Hormuz, the risk of renewed escalation, and the direction of oil prices. He added that all of this coincides with a busy central bank week.The peace deal removed an important source of pressure, but it did not answer every question. Strategy’s disclosure earlier this month that it sold 32 Bitcoin to make a preferred stock dividend payment exposed the presence of demand built around the assumption that Saylor would never sell. ETF outflows are also keeping pressure on the market; neither the Strategy issue nor the institutional demand dynamic is the kind of problem that can be solved by a peace agreement. Whether institutional flows return alongside this wave of risk appetite will become clearer in the coming days.
Producer price inflation in the United States rose more than expected in May, reaching its highest level since November 2022. While the increase in energy prices triggered by the Iran war deepened inflationary pressures, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy continues to keep markets cautious. Crypto markets, meanwhile, are moving sideways without establishing a clear direction.PPI Data Came in Above ExpectationsAccording to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 11, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% on a monthly basis in May. Market expectations were for a 0.7% increase, while the previous month’s figure had been recorded at 1.4%. On an annual basis, PPI reached 6.5%, exceeding forecasts of 6.4% and surpassing April’s 6.0% reading.Core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, painted a more moderate picture. The core index rose 0.4% month-on-month, below expectations of 0.5%, while the annual reading came in at 4.9%, significantly missing the 5.4% forecast. According to data cited by The Kobeissi Letter, headline PPI has returned to levels last seen during the period when pandemic-era stimulus packages were being injected into markets.Consumer price inflation, released a day earlier, had also recorded its fastest increase in three years, although core CPI had come in below expectations. The PPI figures largely confirm that picture: overall price pressures remain strong, while non-energy components are relatively more controlled.The Iran War Is at the Center of the EquationThe key variable markets are now focused on is the impact of the U.S.-Iran military tensions on oil prices. As the conflict environment continues, crude oil prices are being pushed higher, feeding energy-driven inflation and pushing back expectations for the Fed’s rate-cut timeline. Since PPI is one of the indicators the central bank closely monitors when making interest rate decisions, the stronger-than-expected reading reinforced the market view that the Fed may keep policy tight for longer.Expectations for a Fed rate cut this year had already weakened considerably; with the latest data, those expectations declined further. Futures pricing shows that most investors do not expect any rate cut before the September meeting at the earliest.Bitcoin Holds Near $62,000 as Markets Move SidewaysIn this environment of deepening macro uncertainty, crypto markets are also struggling to find a clear direction. Bitcoin has been stuck in the $61,000 to $63,000 range after weeks of sharp declines. Around the time the data was released, BTC was trading at $62,719, up 1.77% over the past 24 hours. Its 24-hour trading range stood between $61,101 and $63,139, while its market capitalization was around $1.25 trillion. Major altcoins showed a similarly cautious performance. Ethereum remained almost flat at $1,643 after rising 0.17% over the past day, while BNB gained 1.75% to trade near $597. XRP, Solana and Dogecoin have yet to recover their weekly losses in the 5% to 7% range. Hyperliquid (HYPE) stood out among the weaker performers, falling 17.57% over the past seven days.All Eyes on the June Fed MeetingAnalysts are now focused on the Fed’s June meeting. The fact that both CPI and PPI surprised markets in the same week strengthens the central bank’s case for maintaining a tight monetary policy stance. This picture is likely to extend pressure on risk assets, and crypto markets are not immune to that process.
Consumer prices in the United States rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, marking the highest inflation rate recorded since 2023. The data arrived at an already complicated moment for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and further strengthened expectations that at least one rate hike could come before the end of the year. Crypto markets responded cautiously to the figures.Inflation matched expectations, but the picture is not comfortingAccording to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.2% in May compared with the same period last year. The result was in line with economists’ expectations and confirmed a third consecutive month of accelerating inflation. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5%, with energy costs serving as the main driver of the increase.Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, came in at 2.9% annually, also matching expectations. Monthly core inflation stood at 0.2%, slightly below the market forecast of 0.3%. Investors interpreted this limited easing as a small positive signal, though it did not change the broader picture.Behind the increase is the renewed escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The conflict has tightened global oil supply, increased pressure on energy prices and effectively disrupted the Fed’s years-long effort to bring inflation back down to 2%.The Fed’s path has narrowed furtherThe reading is the first major inflation data released under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, had resisted repeated pressure from the Trump administration to cut interest rates. The central bank kept its policy rate steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range throughout 2026. Signals under Warsh, however, point in a different direction. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are now pricing in at least one rate hike by year-end. At the start of the year, the dominant scenario was based on three rate cuts.Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theya, summarized the situation as follows: “For Bitcoin, an inflation print that matches expectations is not a clean catalyst. It keeps liquidity expectations under pressure and means risk assets will continue trading around positioning, rather than a fresh dovish impulse.”The impact of interest rate pressure on crypto is direct. As rates rise, cash and U.S. Treasuries become more attractive due to their yields. Non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold, meanwhile, lose some of their appeal.Bitcoin attempts to recoverAt the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $61,295, as shown on the chart, down 2.19% over the past 24 hours. After the inflation data was released, the price climbed from $61,000 to around $61,750, then held near the $62,000 range. The recovery is part of a broader rebound that has continued since last Friday’s selloff, which was triggered by strong employment data. The weekly picture remains more severe. BTC has fallen 8.67% over the past seven days. Its 30-day loss has reached 24.35%, leaving the market divided over whether the current rebound is a real breakout or only temporary relief.Ethereum rose to $1,650, XRP to $1.12 and Solana to $65. XRP remained down 1.6% on a 24-hour basis, while Ethereum and Solana turned positive.
The European Commission has announced its 21st sanctions package against Russia. Under the package, a full-scale ban option is also being considered for countries hosting crypto platforms that help Russia evade sanctions.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the 21st sanctions package targeting Russia on Tuesday. The package includes new measures in several critical areas, including the financial sector and crypto restrictions.According to the statement, the Commission plans to expand transaction bans on 20 non-EU entities found to have provided services to sanctioned Russian institutions and individuals. The list includes banks, crypto platforms and oil traders.The most notable element of the package is the country-based ban option. Von der Leyen said the Commission could impose a full-scale ban on crypto services provided from countries outside the EU. This measure would also apply to countries hosting platforms that allow Russia to bypass sanctions. “This will have a strong deterrent effect on countries hosting these platforms,” von der Leyen said. Earlier this year, media reports had indicated that the EU was considering a broader ban on crypto transactions with Russia.The numbers reveal the scale of the issueThe new sanctions package was not prepared without reason. Looking at the background of the package, the figures clearly show the scale of the problem. According to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, total transaction volume received by illicit crypto addresses reached $154 billion in 2025. Russia-linked transactions also account for a significant share of state-backed crypto activity. The ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5, with $93.3 billion in transaction volume, further illustrates this picture.In February, blockchain research firm Elliptic publicly identified five crypto exchanges that it said helped Russia bypass sanctions through financial channels outside traditional banking oversight. These exchanges appear to be filling the gap left by the shut down of Garantex.Last month, the UK Financial Conduct Authority added HTX, formerly known as Huobi Global, to its sanctions list on the grounds that it provided support to the Russian government.Meanwhile, Russia has announced that it is preparing a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework expected to take effect in July 2025. The framework envisions the creation of licensed domestic trading platforms.Energy and trade restrictions are also deepeningThe scope of the package is not limited to the crypto sector. The measures also target Russia’s energy and foreign trade revenues by adding oil tankers and Russian fishing companies to the blacklist for the first time. In her statement, von der Leyen said, “Our sanctions continue to bite and cut deep. We are weakening the foundations of Russia’s war economy.”
Bitcoin and major altcoins traded under broad selling pressure on Wednesday. BTC was down 2.75% on the day at $66,809, while Ethereum fell 5.49%. Solana dropped 5.31% and BNB lost 6.11%, making them some of the notable decliners during the mid-session. The U.S. macro data released during the day did not directly create this picture; markets were already under pressure. However, the figures also failed to strengthen the case for a recovery. According to ADP’s May private-sector employment report released on Wednesday, the U.S. economy added 122,000 new jobs last month. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 117,000, while April’s figure was revised down from 109,000 to 105,000. The number came in above expectations, but analysts avoided reading it as a sign of a strengthening labor market.The sectoral breakdown offers a clearer picture of the increase. Education and health services accounted for nearly half of the growth alone, adding 57,000 new positions. Trade, transportation and utilities recorded an increase of 36,000. Meanwhile, the information technology sector and natural resources and mining saw net job losses.Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the current picture does not provide convincing evidence that the labor market is regaining momentum. Hiring intention indexes from NFIB and regional Fed surveys, along with the Conference Board’s job availability index, have weakened noticeably in recent months. The ADP report has historically been weak at predicting Friday’s BLS data, which limits its guiding impact on markets.Indeed, the main focus is now on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payroll growth to slow to 85,000 in May after April’s 115,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.Behind this picture is a labor market that was shaken last year by tariff-related uncertainty, a process that has largely been absorbed. However, the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran is pushing commodity prices higher, while inflation pressure continues. In April, inflation recorded its fastest increase in three years. Against this backdrop, the market broadly expects the Fed to keep interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range and continue monitoring developments.The JOLTS report released on Tuesday showed an increase in job openings in April, but that increase was concentrated in a single sector. Hiring declined, while layoffs also fell. This suggests that April’s relatively strong employment gain was driven not by new hiring, but by a low layoff rate.PMI Data Also ReleasedThe picture on the PMI side was even more mixed. According to S&P Global’s May data, the U.S. Composite PMI came in at 51.5, below the expected 51.7. The Services PMI fell to 50.7, while the previous reading and market expectation stood at 50.9. Both indexes remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, meaning growth technically continued. However, momentum kept weakening.For crypto markets, this macro picture did not act as a direct trigger. Bitcoin was already trading 2.75% lower when the data arrived. Solana’s 10.38% weekly gain and Hyperliquid’s 19.76% weekly rise also show how mixed the broader picture remains. Weaker PMI data and a below-forecast services reading do not support risk appetite, while expectations that the Fed will not rush into rate cuts this year continue to act as a background factor behind ongoing fund outflows from crypto.
U.S. President Donald Trump openly defended the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) authority over prediction markets. In a post on Truth Social, Trump backed his appointed CFTC Chairman Michael Selig while once again making his stance on the crypto sector clear.“Critically important”Trump’s post on Tuesday was brief but direct: “It is critically important to preserve the CFTC’s exclusive authority over prediction markets and allow these markets to grow.”The president also highlighted the country’s position in the crypto space. “Other countries are chasing these new financial markets. We want to maintain our place at the top. Right now, we are the crypto capital of the world; others are trying to knock us off that position, but we will not allow it,” he said.Selig has long argued that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. In this context, he has sued five states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut and New York. These states argue that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi violate local gambling regulations, while Selig insists that the agency’s authority should be interpreted broadly.Prediction markets have grown rapidly in the U.S., especially after the 2024 presidential election cycle. Initially seen as a niche area of interest, these platforms now generate tens of millions of dollars in trading volume.NYT investigation casts a shadowTrump’s statement came shortly after a broad investigation published over the weekend by The New York Times. According to the NYT, senior CFTC employees who raised concerns about Polymarket, Crypto.com and other firms with business ties to the Trump family were pushed out of the agency. The investigation raised serious questions about the agency’s internal operations.Reactions came quickly. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal sharply criticized the CFTC in a post on X. “The CFTC has become a captive of prediction markets and shady crypto firms; it is ignoring national security risks while pressuring state regulators and punishing its own staff for trying to enforce the law,” he said.Crypto testTrump’s recent stance reinforces his promises to support the crypto sector. The president describes the industry as “a big industry” and emphasizes that the U.S. needs to get ahead in global competition. However, the debates inside the CFTC and the NYT investigation have pushed questions about what is happening behind this support higher on the agenda.The tension between states and the federal regulator over prediction markets remains unresolved. With Trump directly stepping in, this tension has now moved beyond a purely legal dispute and turned into a political issue. How the CFTC uses this authority in the coming period will be decisive for both the prediction markets sector and the broader crypto ecosystem.
For crypto markets, this week will be shaped less by internal industry developments and more by economic data coming out of the United States. Inflation, unemployment, housing and growth figures will be released before markets open. All of them point to the same question: Can the Fed cut interest rates?For now, there is no cut on the table. The CME FedWatch tool and prediction markets agree that rates will likely remain unchanged at the June meeting. That view does not seem likely to shift unless an unexpected data print arrives.The most critical release of the week comes on Wednesday. The PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, has a direct impact on markets. The previous reading stood at 3.5%. Core PCE will also be released on the same day. Where these two figures land could have a serious short-term impact on risk appetite. But this week’s macro calendar is not limited to PCE. Five major data releases are coming back to back.On Monday, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index will be released with a May forecast of 92, compared with 92.8 in the previous month. A slight decline could signal weaker consumer spending appetite.Wednesday brings the most important part of the calendar. The PCE Price Index and Core PCE will be released; weekly jobless claims will also arrive on the same day. The jobless claims figure, expected at 212,000, directly affects how the Fed assesses the employment side of the economy. April New Home Sales will also be published on Wednesday, with expectations at 670,000. As a highly rate-sensitive sector, the housing market both reacts to Fed decisions and offers guidance for future policy.The week will close on Friday with the Chicago PMI. The May figure is expected at 49.5 and will measure manufacturing activity. If it stays below 50, the signal of economic slowdown will become stronger.The most interesting development for crypto, however, is not a monetary policy move, but a change of name. Kevin Warsh officially begins his term as Fed Chair this Monday. It remains unclear how Warsh will steer interest rate policy; any early signals he gives this week will be closely watched.What is happening on the crypto side?In terms of token unlocks, the week is especially concentrated around May 26. Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock around 20% of its circulating supply that day, worth $11.76 million. Plasma (XPL) will also add a $7.39 million unlock on the same day. Grass (GRASS) will go through a similar process on May 29, followed by EigenCloud (EIGEN) on June 1. These unlocks can create short-term selling pressure, although market reactions do not always match expectations.The DAO side is also busy this week. Uniswap is voting on expanding its protocol fee infrastructure to BNB Chain, Polygon and Celo. At the same time, a proposal to withdraw 12.5 million UNI delegated to the Franchiser system back into the governance treasury is also up for a vote. On Arbitrum, the transfer of 30,765 ETH frozen in connection with the rsETH incident to a wallet controlled by Aave LLC is on the agenda. Compound and Aave are also voting on supply limits and operational multisig structures.The conference calendar is packed as well. The Nordic Blockchain Conference in Stockholm, Unchained Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, and the Crypto Valley Conference in Switzerland are all taking place this week.
The Bank of England (BoE) has unveiled a comprehensive strategy centered on tokenization to transform the country's financial infrastructure. Speaking at the City Week 2026 conference in London, the Bank's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Sarah Breeden, said the retail payment system would be reshaped and incorporate multiple forms of currency. According to Breeden, the goal is to establish a multi-layered payment environment consisting of tokenized deposits, regulated stablecoins, and a potential retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). "People should be able to pay with tokenized bank deposits, regulated stablecoins, and potentially a retail CBDC," said Breeden.Stablecoin regulations to be finalized this yearThe central bank plans to release draft regulations for systemic stablecoins next month; final rules are expected to be ready by the end of the year. Since rapid stablecoin adoption could bring risks, temporary caps on the amount of stablecoins in circulation may also be considered in the early stages. Breeden emphasized that shared ledger technology has the potential to make payments both cheaper and faster, adding that smart contracts will make payment processes more efficient through automation.Banks will be directed towards tokenized depositsThe BoE also wants to include banks in this transformation. Breeden explicitly stated that banks need to innovate in tokenized deposits and that they are working on a next-generation retail infrastructure that will enable interbank payments. Currently, such payments can mostly only occur between customers of the same bank.On May 18, the central bank and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) launched a consultation process for a joint tokenization program based on the Bank-FCA Digital Securities Sandbox. Launched in 2024 and running until January 2029, the sandbox allows firms to establish real trading platforms and clearing systems for tokenized securities. Euroclear, HSBC, and the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), along with 16 other firms, are expected to transition to the platform by the end of 2026.Digital Pound and CBDC studies continueThe Central Bank will also continue to support the UK government's Digital Gilt initiative, a pilot for tokenized government bonds. The results of the BoE's CBDC design phase will be shared with the public this year.In his speech, Breeden also touched upon the impact of artificial intelligence on the financial system, saying that the bank has taken serious steps to support the responsible adoption of AI, including in agency payments and commerce.These steps by the UK are not an isolated initiative. On the same day, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially adopted a strategy to build the country's future financial system on artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies; tokenization, stablecoins, and agency commerce are among the three key components of this strategy. In the UK, Breeden emphasized the need for joint action between the industry and the government, concluding his speech by saying, "We need to show that we are deepening the tokenized finance ecosystem and that it is yielding tangible results."
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that could pave the way for crypto and fintech firms to have direct access to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) payment infrastructure. The order directs the Fed to review its current regulatory framework and consider new access options for non-bank entities.120-Day Deadline for the FedUS President Donald Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the Federal Reserve to conduct a comprehensive review of access to payment infrastructure for fintech and crypto companies.The order, titled "Integration of Financial Technology Innovation into Regulatory Frameworks," requests that the federal government remove regulations deemed to be "overburdening" fintech innovation. Companies operating digital assets and blockchain-based services are also included in this assessment. The Fed's current regulatory framework grants reserve banks the authority to approve or reject payment system access applications. Under the Federal Reserve Act, this access is generally limited to licensed depositories; therefore, some crypto firms have had to apply for a federal charter license.Trump's executive order asks the Fed to take two concrete steps: to review the current framework regulating access to reserve bank payment accounts and services, and to evaluate options for expanding this access to fintech and crypto firms. The order also demands that the 12 Federal Reserve banks clarify, from a legal standpoint, whether they can independently grant access to payment accounts. The Fed is expected to submit a report on this within 120 days. These accounts are known as "master accounts." If crypto firms are granted this access, companies will be able to connect directly to the core US payment infrastructure without needing intermediary banks.The Kraken SparkThe issue has been the subject of intense debate since March, when the Kansas City Fed opened a "limited purpose account" for Payward, the parent company of the crypto exchange Kraken. The account provides access to high-value dollar swaps for institutional clients; however, it includes restrictions such as the non-accrual of interest on reserves. Kraken Co-CEO Arjun Sethi described the decision as "the meeting of crypto infrastructure and sovereign financial rails." The approval drew strong criticism from the Bank Policy Institute, which acts on behalf of major banks. The institute criticized the Fed for announcing the decision before finalizing its policy framework for "narrow" master accounts, which the Fed publicly released in December. Narrow master accounts are defined as central bank accounts that lack standard features such as earning interest on reserves or borrowing from the discount window, and provide limited access to payment systems. A parallel movement is underway in Congress. Last month, Democrat Sam Liccardo and Republican Young Kim jointly introduced the Payments Access and Consumer Efficiency Act (PACE), which would allow non-bank entities access to Fed payment services under certain conditions. While still in its initial stages, the bill has already garnered support from the cryptocurrency sector.
Iran may be working on a remarkable model for the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical transit points for global energy trade. According to Fars News, a state-affiliated news outlet, the Iranian Ministry of Economy plans to manage ships passing through the strait not through direct transit fees, but through marine insurance and financial liability certificates. The use of Bitcoin in payments for this model has led the cryptocurrency market to closely monitor the issue.Bitcoin could be at the center of the insurance model in the Strait of HormuzAccording to the news, the platform called "Hormuz Safe" aims to offer insurance services for maritime cargo passing through the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and surrounding waterways. The system allows cargo owners to purchase digitally verifiable policies, which become active after payment is confirmed. The plan also includes providing the cargo owner with a signed digital receipt. However, it is not yet clear how far the project has progressed. The website mentioned in the report only shows a landing page, and basic details such as policy terms, insurer information, deductibles, and claims processes are not clearly shared. Therefore, it has not been possible to confirm whether Hormuz Safe is actually operational or whether any cargo owner is using the platform. According to Fars News, this model could generate over $10 billion in revenue for Iran. However, it has not been explained on what basis this estimate is derived. Nevertheless, the logic of the proposal seems quite clear. Iran may be trying to monetize its strategic position on the Strait of Hormuz not directly through "transit fees," but through an insurance and certificate structure.The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most sensitive energy corridors, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil trade passes. Therefore, any new payment or certificate system that could be implemented in the region concerns not only maritime transport companies but also energy markets, insurers, and international trade networks.The Bitcoin option, however, constitutes the most controversial part of the plan. Iran has long been trying to reduce its dependence on dollar-based financial systems due to sanctions. A marine insurance platform that accepts Bitcoin payments seems, in this respect, consistent with Iran's broader strategy to overcome the pressure of sanctions. However, such a system carries serious compatibility risks. Payments to Iranian-linked state institutions or entities close to the state do not eliminate the risk of sanctions, even if they don't pass through the banking system. Whether the payment is made in Bitcoin, stablecoins, or other digital assets, it creates an area requiring legal scrutiny for shipowners, trading companies, and insurance organizations. Some news reports have suggested that Iran may previously demand Bitcoin payment per barrel of oil from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, it is known that some shipping companies operating in the region in the past have been targeted by scammers demanding cryptocurrency under the guise of secure passage. Therefore, the possibility that the site circulating under the name Hormuz Safe is fake cannot be entirely ruled out. Iran's shift towards Bitcoin instead of centralized stablecoins like USDT is also noteworthy. This is because stablecoin issuers can freeze wallets associated with sanctions. Bitcoin, however, does not have a central issuer that can freeze funds. This feature makes Bitcoin a more convenient payment method for countries under sanctions.
The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the head of the Federal Reserve with a vote of 54 to 45. This officially marks the beginning of a new era at the Fed after Jerome Powell, but the narrow margin of the vote demonstrates that political divisions in Washington extend to the central bank. According to official Senate records, 54 senators voted "yes" and 45 voted "no" for Warsh's four-year term as Fed chairman; one senator abstained. Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman was the only Democrat to support Warsh. This shows that the new Fed chairman will begin his term amid intense political pressure and market expectations. According to Reuters, Warsh takes over the central bank at a time when President Donald Trump continues to openly pressure for interest rate cuts. Warsh previously served on the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. Now he has been confirmed for both his 14-year term as a Fed governor and his simultaneous four-year term as chairman. Powell is expected to remain on the Fed board as his term as chairman comes to an end.Inflationary pressure will be the first testWarsh's first major test will be interest rate policy. Consumer inflation in the US rose to 3.8 percent year-on-year in April. This rate remained above the 3.3 percent level in March and moved significantly away from the Fed's 2 percent target. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, core inflation also rose to 2.8 percent year-on-year.The picture is not so easy on the producer price side either. In April, the final demand producer price index rose 1.4 percent month-on-month, while the year-on-year increase reached 6 percent. Reuters reported that this level is the strongest year-on-year increase seen since December 2022.These data make Trump's long-standing desire for interest rate cuts more complicated for Warsh. The new chairman will face pressure from the White House to ease rates on the one hand, and on the other hand, he will have to prevent high inflation from becoming permanent again. The first FOMC meeting in June will therefore be a critical signal for the markets.Why is the crypto market focused on Warsh?Warsh's appointment is noteworthy not only for traditional markets but also for the crypto sector. His financial disclosures show that Warsh has invested in many technology and digital asset-related companies. Reuters wrote that Warsh's portfolio includes various ventures extending into artificial intelligence, fintech, and crypto spaces.According to CoinDesk, Warsh's disclosed assets include connections to companies focused on Bitcoin payment infrastructure, such as Flashnet, and venture investments touching the crypto sector. Warsh is expected to divest from a large portion of assets that could create conflicts of interest before taking office.The crypto market's main expectation, however, is less about Warsh's personal investment history and more about the tone the Fed will set in its approach to digital assets. Stablecoin regulations, banks' crypto custody services, the use of blockchain in payment infrastructures, and a possible central bank digital currency debate will be among the topics of the new era. Warsh's past statements indicate that he views Bitcoin as a kind of market signal against monetary policy. Industry sources also report that Warsh is more favorably disposed towards privately issued stablecoins and distanced himself from the idea of a central bank cryptocurrency.However, the outlook for the market is not entirely reassuring. If inflation data remains strong, it may become difficult for the Fed to quickly begin interest rate cuts. This could put pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins. Therefore, the Warsh era presents a two-sided story for the crypto market. The possibility of a more open Fed stance on regulation and digital payment infrastructure is seen as positive for the sector. However, maintaining a tight monetary policy stance could limit liquidity expectations. The June meeting will be the first important threshold to show which priority the new Fed chairman will give more weight to.
April inflation data in the United States renewed caution across global markets. According to the Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual inflation rose to 3.8% in April. This marked the highest level in three years. Annual inflation had stood at 3.3% in March and 2.4% in February.Markets had expected inflation to rise to 3.7%. However, the reported figure came slightly above expectations. The main driver behind the increase was the sharp rise in energy prices. The conflict in the Middle East has started to weigh on the U.S. economy, especially through higher fuel prices.According to the data, gasoline prices rose 28.4% year over year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased from 2.6% in March to 2.8%. This raised concerns that price pressures may not remain limited to energy.Oil Prices Put Pressure on MarketsEnergy prices stood out as one of the most important parts of the report. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a sharp increase in global crude oil prices. This development directly affected pump prices in the United States. According to AAA data, gasoline prices reached $4.50 per gallon on Tuesday. Diesel prices also climbed to $5.64, approaching an all-time high.In recent days, optimism over a possible ceasefire deal had helped limit energy prices to some extent. However, that optimism weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to the latest proposal as “unacceptable.” Trump also said the possibility of a month-long ceasefire was under serious pressure.Higher fuel prices are creating a new source of pressure for household budgets and business costs in the United States. For this reason, some lawmakers proposed suspending federal fuel taxes to provide temporary relief for drivers. Still, such a move may have only a limited effect on inflation. The main source of the price increase appears to be the tightening in global energy supply rather than domestic tax rules.Bitcoin Tries to Stay Above $80,000Following the inflation data, the crypto market also showed a cautious outlook. According to market data, Bitcoin was trading around $80,803 at the time of writing. The leading cryptocurrency was down 0.37% over the past 24 hours, while its daily trading range stood between $80,487 and $82,041. The short-term chart shows that Bitcoin moved in a volatile range during the day. The price traded near $81,800 in the early hours before facing downward pressure and falling toward the $80,500 area. It later saw a limited recovery and moved back above $80,800. This move shows that investors are closely watching inflation data and energy-driven macro risks.Bitcoin’s gain of more than 13% over the past 30 days suggests that the broader trend has not fully weakened. However, the 24-hour decline and limited weekly loss show that the market has become more sensitive to new data. In particular, the renewed acceleration in U.S. inflation may strengthen expectations that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to rate cuts.For the crypto market, this picture can be read in two ways. On one hand, high inflation may support Bitcoin’s long-term “store of value” narrative. On the other hand, expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer could pressure risk assets. For this reason, Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above $80,000 will remain important for short-term market sentiment.Markets are now watching both energy prices and signals from the Fed. If inflation remains persistently above 3%, volatility may increase across a wide range of risk assets, from stocks to cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, the $80,000 level stands out as short-term support, while the $82,000 area appears to be the first resistance zone.
