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Inflation data from the US, closely followed by global markets, triggered activity in the cryptocurrency market. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, one of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) most important inflation indicators, came in below expectations, helping Bitcoin regain upward momentum. Following the release of the data, the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), quickly approached the $73,000 level, attracting attention.According to data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), PCE inflation in February was 2.8% year-on-year. Market expectations were at 2.9%. Thus, the inflation data came in slightly below expectations. On a monthly basis, the PCE index increased by 0.3%, presenting a picture in line with expectations.On the other hand, core PCE data, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, was announced at 3.1% year-on-year. This data aligned with market expectations and remained close to its highest levels in the last two years. Core PCE's monthly increase was also in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. The data shows that headline inflation has decreased somewhat, but core inflationary pressure remains strong.The decrease in headline PCE from 2.9 percent in January to 2.8 percent in February is considered a positive development, albeit limited, for the Fed's fight against inflation. However, the fact that core PCE continues to remain above 3 percent reveals that the Fed is still quite far from its 2 percent inflation target.These data are an important signal for the markets before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. Analysts believe that it is highly likely that the Fed will keep the policy interest rate unchanged in light of the current data. US President Donald Trump's calls for an urgent interest rate cut are not seen as a decisive factor in the central bank's policies at this stage.Bitcoin experienced a riseFollowing the release of the inflation data, there was a rapid price movement in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin accelerated its rise following the data release, climbing to the $73,000 level. Having surpassed $72,000 during the day, BTC saw an increase of approximately 3% following the announcement. Analysts note that this rise in Bitcoin was not limited to the inflation data alone, but was also supported by strong buying in derivative markets. In particular, increased positions in futures markets are said to have strengthened BTC's upward movement. In addition, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are among the factors increasing optimism in the market. According to the latest data, approximately $54 million in new investments were made into Bitcoin ETFs in just one day. The continued interest of institutional investors plays a significant role in supporting the Bitcoin price. However, geopolitical risks on the cryptocurrency market have not completely disappeared. The ongoing tension and possibility of war between the US and Iran continue to create uncertainty in global markets. According to analysts, the tension between the two countries is pushing oil prices higher, and this could create new pressure on inflation through energy costs. The possibility that rising oil prices could fuel inflation again may lead the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period. This is considered one of the factors that could create temporary pressure on cryptocurrencies, which are seen as risky assets.
The crypto market is in a cautious waiting period ahead of today's large options expiration and critical inflation data from the US. Approximately $2.2-2.3 billion worth of options contracts linked to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP expire today, while investors are also closely watching the direction the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data will give to the market.Options Market: Large Amounts of Bitcoin and ETH ExpirationSuch large-scale expirations in the options market can usually lead to increased volatility in the short term. However, analysts note that this week's expiration is relatively smaller compared to previous periods and may not have a dramatic impact on spot markets.According to Deribit data, approximately 27,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire today. The total nominal value of these contracts is approximately $1.9 billion. The put/call ratio of 0.97 in Bitcoin options indicates that expectations for both bullish and bearish movements in the market are quite balanced.On the Bitcoin side, the "max pain" level, where options would cause the most losses for investors, is estimated at approximately $69,000. This level is slightly below Bitcoin's current price. The majority of open options positions are concentrated in put contracts between $55,000 and $60,000, while call contracts are concentrated in the $75,000-$80,000 range. However, options data indicates that there is approximately an 86% chance that Bitcoin will close above $71,000. On the Ethereum side, approximately 185,000 to 186,000 option contracts will expire today. The total value of these contracts is over $380 million. The put/call ratio in Ethereum options is around 1.2, indicating that bearish positions are somewhat more prevalent. The calculated max pain level for ETH is around $2,000. Despite this, options data reveals that there is over a 70% chance that the price will close above $2,100. On the XRP side, the total value of expiring options is estimated at approximately $8.8 million. The put/call ratio is at a very low level of 0.13, indicating that investors are predominantly taking long positions. The maximum pain level for XRP is around $1.40. The fact that the current price is slightly above this level suggests that investors expect a move towards the $1.50 level in the short term.US Inflation Data in the SpotlightAnother development closely followed in the crypto market, as much as option expiry, is the PCE inflation data to be released in the US. This data will be released at 15:30 Turkish time. The data, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, is considered an important indicator, especially for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.According to economists' expectations, core PCE inflation is expected to come in at 0.4 percent on a monthly basis and 3.1 percent on an annual basis. Headline PCE is expected to increase by 0.3 percent monthly and remain around 2.9 percent on an annual basis. These data may indicate that inflation remains relatively stable despite rising energy prices. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump has called on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Trump argued that an urgent rate cut is necessary, citing increased inflation risks, particularly due to rising oil prices. However, CME FedWatch data shows that a large portion of the market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. The tool prices the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 99%. Goldman Sachs also updated its forecasts, suggesting the first rate cut could come in September, followed by a second in December. In addition to macroeconomic developments, geopolitical factors continue to impact the crypto market. The US granting a 30-day sanctions exemption to some countries to purchase Russian oil created a sense of relief in global energy markets. Following this development, Bitcoin briefly reacted upwards, approaching the $72,000 level.
February inflation data released in the US did not create a major surprise in the markets, as both headline and core indicators perfectly matched economists' expectations. The data, which came in line with expectations, presented a relatively calm picture for financial markets, which have been moving in the shadow of increasing geopolitical tensions in recent weeks.According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.4 percent year-on-year in February. This rate was completely in line with economists' estimates of 2.4 percent. Similarly, monthly inflation increased by 0.3 percent, in line with expectations.The picture did not change in core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as energy and food. Core CPI recorded a 2.5 percent increase year-on-year, again at the same level as market expectations. Monthly core inflation increased by 0.2 percent, confirming economists' predictions.Geopolitical tensions reignite inflation debatesDespite the data matching expectations, uncertainty in global markets has not completely disappeared. The escalating military tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have caused significant volatility in energy markets. Rising oil prices have raised concerns that this could put renewed upward pressure on inflation.Analysts say that the increase in energy prices could challenge the Federal Reserve's (Fed) long-standing 2% inflation target. Therefore, it is being discussed that the Fed may act more cautiously in its monetary policy decisions in the coming period.According to some market commentators, if a sustained rise in oil prices is seen, the Fed may even pause interest rate cuts or adopt a tighter policy against inflation risk. This situation has the potential to increase volatility, especially in risky asset classes.Bitcoin struggles around $70,000The cryptocurrency market is also exhibiting a cautious outlook in the shadow of macroeconomic developments and geopolitical risks. The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has been fluctuating around the $70,000 level in recent days. According to market data, while Bitcoin's price has experienced sharp fluctuations throughout the day, it generally continues to trade in the $69,000-$70,000 range. Looking at intraday price movements, BTC approached the $70,000 level in the morning before experiencing a gradual pullback. The most striking point in the chart is the sudden selling pressure experienced in the middle of the day. Although Bitcoin briefly dropped below the $69,000 level, it quickly recovered above $69,000 with subsequent buying activity. At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading around $69,200. Macroeconomic data continues to be decisive for the crypto marketIn recent years, the cryptocurrency market has increasingly moved in line with macroeconomic developments. In particular, US inflation data, the Fed's interest rate policy, and geopolitical risks play a significant role in the pricing of digital assets, especially Bitcoin.While the February inflation data coming in line with expectations may not create a major shock in the markets in the short term, rising energy prices and global geopolitical developments indicate that volatility may remain high in the coming period. Therefore, investors are expected to continue closely monitoring both the Fed's messages and global developments in the coming weeks. Bitcoin's struggle around $70,000 continues to unfold against the backdrop of this macroeconomic agenda.
Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has once again come under legal scrutiny in the US. The US Department of Justice (DOJ) is reportedly investigating whether certain transactions linked to Iran violated American sanctions. According to the Wall Street Journal, the investigation focuses on high-volume transfers made through Binance by individuals and entities linked to Iran.Allegations of transfers exceeding $1 billion trigger a new investigation in WashingtonThe investigation is based on internal company documents indicating that between March 2024 and August 2025, over $1 billion in cryptocurrency was transferred through the Binance platform to Iranian-linked networks. These transactions are alleged to be connected to networks that could contribute to the financing of certain organizations supported by Iran. US authorities are conducting a comprehensive investigation to determine whether these transfers constitute a violation of sanctions.According to the report, US investigators have contacted and requested interviews with individuals believed to have knowledge of the Iranian-linked transactions. Authorities are reportedly trying to understand how these transfers occurred and Binance's role in the process. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that it is not yet clear whether the Justice Department is directly targeting Binance or only its customers who use the platform.The investigation may also be linked to the termination of an internal review previously initiated by Binance. This internal review allegedly covered data on Iran-related transactions and analyzed transfer flows totaling over $1 billion. However, it is claimed that this investigation was halted in its later stages.The issue has also been raised in US political circles. Eleven Democratic senators sent a letter to US Attorney General Pam Bondi and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent requesting a comprehensive review of Binance's sanctions compliance. In the letter, the senators specifically requested a swift and detailed assessment of Iran-related transactions. The officials were given until March 13 to respond.On the other hand, Binance strongly denied the allegations. The company argued that the reports published by the Wall Street Journal and Fortune were "false and defamatory." Binance officials stated that the platform's compliance and oversight mechanisms are among the most advanced in the industry. For the crypto exchange, this investigation represents renewed pressure following major legal processes in recent years. In 2023, Binance pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering (AML) and sanctions violations in the US and agreed to pay approximately $4.3 billion in fines. The company also agreed to operate under the supervision of US authorities. During this process, Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao also pleaded guilty in a related case and received a four-month prison sentence. It is reported that Zhao was later pardoned by US President Donald Trump in October. Another key aspect of the investigation is the compliance auditor appointed by the US Treasury Department. This independent observer, who oversees Binance's compliance program, has sent requests for additional information to the company regarding transfers linked to Iran. These requests reportedly include details about a business partner who allegedly facilitated large-scale fund transfers. From a cryptocurrency perspective, the possibility of a new investigation into Binance shows that the sector continues to face regulatory pressure. In recent years, US regulators have been scrutinizing the enforcement, anti-money laundering, and financial crime policies of major crypto platforms in particular.
The latest employment data from the US has presented a striking picture for global markets. The data released for February deviated significantly from economists' expectations, indicating an unexpected weakening in the US labor market. While an increase in non-farm payrolls was expected, the negative data came as a surprise to the markets.According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm employment decreased by 92,000 people in February. Market expectations were for an increase of approximately 55,000 people. The previous month's data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs. Thus, the strong performance seen in the US labor market in recent months has given way to a weaker picture than expected.The unemployment rate also rose above expectations. From 4.3% in January, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in February. Economists had expected unemployment to remain at the same level. This increase is interpreted as a signal that a gradual cooling has begun in the labor market. However, the upward trend in wages continues. Average annual earnings rose to 3.8%, slightly exceeding expectations. Market expectations were at 3.7%. The fact that wage increases continue to exceed inflation indicates that the US economy is still resilient in some areas.Surprise drop in employment surprised marketsThe US labor market had performed stronger than expected in recent months. The 130,000 increase in employment announced in January had temporarily pushed expectations of an economic slowdown into the background. This data led to interpretations that the US Federal Reserve might be more cautious about cutting interest rates. However, the February data could change this picture. The negative non-farm payrolls figure brought the possibility of a slowdown in economic activity back to the forefront. Analysts note that the strong data, especially at the beginning of the year, may have been due to seasonal factors.It was thought that temporary factors such as the holiday season and warmer weather increasing construction activity played a role in the stronger-than-expected employment increase in January. With these effects disappearing in February, a more realistic picture of the labor market may have emerged.Short-term fluctuations were observed in the cryptocurrency market following the weak employment data from the US. Minutes before the data release, the Bitcoin price fell from around $70,600 to the $69,800 range. Although a limited recovery was seen afterwards, a cautious outlook prevailed in the market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $70,593, showing a loss of approximately 2.79% in the last 24 hours. On the intraday chart, it is noteworthy that selling pressure increased after the data, and a rapid drop below the psychological level of $70,000 was observed. Critical Signals for Fed PolicyThis weakening in the US labor market may also affect investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Slower employment growth can be interpreted as the Fed being closer to interest rate cuts.Fed officials have long emphasized that a strong labor market keeps inflationary pressures alive. Therefore, a significant cooling in the employment market is considered an important development that could increase the likelihood of monetary policy easing.However, wage increases exceeding expectations presents a complex picture for the Fed. The continued rapid rise in wages has not completely eliminated concerns that inflation may be persistent.Crypto markets were cautious before the data release.The US employment data is considered an important indicator not only for traditional financial markets but also for cryptocurrency markets. This is because the Fed's interest rate policy can directly affect the price movements of crypto assets.Before the data was released, a cautious outlook prevailed in the crypto market. Bitcoin was trading around $70,900, having lost more than 1% in the last 24 hours. Similarly, limited pullbacks were seen in major altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.Analysts believe that weaker-than-expected employment data could create a positive catalyst for crypto markets in the medium term. A weaker labor market could increase the likelihood of the Fed moving towards interest rate cuts, which could be supportive for risky assets. However, the initial market reaction is expected to be quite volatile. Data that deviates from expectations can often lead to sharp short-term price movements in both traditional markets and crypto assets.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which dominated global markets, was released, and the figures significantly exceeded market expectations. This indicator, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve (FED) in its fight against inflation, also resonated in the cryptocurrency markets; the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, faced very slight selling pressure after the data release. What do the PPI data say?The PPI report released by the US Bureau of Statistics (BLS) on Friday revealed that producer inflation was stronger than expected. The data released are as follows:Producer Price Index (Monthly): Announced 0.5% – Expectation 0.3% – Previous 0.4%Producer Price Index (Annual): Announced 2.9% – Expectation 2.6% – Previous 3.0%Core PPI (Monthly): Announced 0.8% – Expectation 0.3% – Previous 0.7%Core PPI (Annual): Announced 3.6% – Expectation 3.0% – Previous 3.3%The 0.5% monthly increase in PPI was almost double the 0.3% figure predicted by analysts. On an annual basis, although inflation decreased from 3.0% to 2.9% compared to the previous month, it remained significantly above the market expectation of 2.6%. In particular, the core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, exceeding expectations by 3.6% annually, reignited inflation concerns. A picture that makes things difficult for the FedThese data came in an environment where investors expect two interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. However, producer inflation, which is higher than expected, strengthens the possibility that the central bank may postpone interest rate cuts or proceed with a more cautious approach. As is known, the increase in producer prices can eventually be reflected in consumer prices, creating upward pressure on the CPI; this could pave the way for the Fed to continue its monetary tightening policy for a longer period.Indeed, after the data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) started the day with a flat trend, but continued to hold in the slightly positive region at the 97.82 level.What is the situation with the Bitcoin price?The picture reflected in the market data was clearly felt in the Bitcoin camp as well. When the visual is examined, it is noteworthy that the BTC/USDT pair tried to hold around $68,500 in the first hours of the day, but later experienced a sharp downward movement to the $65,500-$65,750 range. As of 16:50 Turkish time, Bitcoin is trading at $66,198.28, with a 24-hour change of -1.92%. The daily trading range is between $66,642 and $68,617, and the fact that the price is currently close to the lower end of this range indicates that selling pressure, albeit slight, remains. The limited 1-hour change of -0.01% suggests that a strong recovery signal has not yet been generated in the short term. In other words, the higher-than-expected PPI data has pushed expectations of a Fed interest rate cut into the background, weakening risk appetite. Bitcoin's sharp loss once again highlights investors' tendency to avoid risky assets in this environment. Markets will continue to closely monitor statements from Fed officials and upcoming inflation data.
In the US, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which is critical for the Fed's monetary policy, came in above expectations. The significant slowdown in growth during the same period triggered a complex pricing process in the markets. According to the December data, core PCE inflation increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Market expectations were at 0.3%. The previous month's monthly increase was recorded at 0.2%. Annual core PCE rose to 3.0%, compared to an expected 2.9%. The previous data was 2.8%. A similar picture emerged in headline PCE. Annual PCE came in slightly above expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly increase was 0.4%. Thus, the gradual slowdown trend observed in recent months was interrupted. The continued price pressure, especially in services, indicates that inflation has not yet settled on a path consistent with the Fed's 2% target. According to the Kobeissi Letter, core PCE inflation has reached its highest level since November 2023. This development reveals that the disinflation process is not linear and that price pressures can occasionally regain strength.The growth data released on the same day as the upward surprise in inflation indicated a loss of momentum in the economy. The US economy grew by only 1.4% in the fourth quarter, compared to an expected growth of 2.8%. This sharp slowdown, following the strong 4.4% performance recorded in the previous quarter, reflects the impact of weakening domestic demand and government spending.While the resulting picture does not present a classic stagflation scenario, it points to a difficult balance for policymakers. Growth is slowing, but inflation is accelerating again. This situation represents a combination that could weaken the Fed's hand regarding interest rate cuts.The market has recently been pricing in expectations of two interest rate cuts within 2026. The expectation of a June easing was particularly prominent. However, the monthly PCE increase of 0.4% and the annual level of 3.0% indicate that the "wait-and-see" period may be extended. An early interest rate cut may become more difficult without a sustained and strong decline in inflation.Geopolitical risks are also affecting pricing in global markets. The escalation of tensions between the US and Iran is suppressing risk appetite, while US President Donald Trump stated that the process could be clarified within 10 days. These statements have made the already fragile market psychology even more sensitive.How was the Bitcoin price affected?The cryptocurrency market is also exhibiting a volatile appearance due to the influence of both macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments. Following the release of the PCE data, Bitcoin saw sharp movements and a search for direction.In the initial price movements after the data, Bitcoin retreated from above the $68,000 level. As of the time of the news, the BTC price is trading at $66,554. During the day, the lowest level tested was $65,734 and the highest was $68,226. There has been a decline of approximately 0.67% in value over the last 24 hours. The higher-than-expected inflation data paved the way for a short-term strengthening of the dollar while putting pressure on risky assets. The pullback in Bitcoin reflected this macroeconomic pressure. On the other hand, the sharp slowdown in growth has not completely eliminated the pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy in the medium term.
While global markets continue to search for direction, macroeconomic data is further complicating the process. The latest inflation data released in the US added to this uncertain picture, reshaping pricing across a wide range of markets, from stocks and bonds to commodities and cryptocurrencies.US Inflation Data ReleasedUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January came in slightly below expectations. Annual CPI was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%, while the monthly increase was 0.2%. On the core CPI side, the annual rate came in at 2.5%, in line with expectations, while the monthly increase was 0.3%. In particular, the fact that core inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2021 brought the possibility of interest rate cuts back to the forefront in the markets.On the other hand, the previously released non-farm payroll data in the US came in above expectations, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The concentration of job growth primarily in the healthcare sector and the limited recovery in manufacturing have not completely eliminated questions about the quality of economic growth. This situation has led to a cautious stance regarding expectations for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path.Looking at pricing in money markets, the expectation that the Fed will keep its policy rate unchanged in March remains strong. The probability of a possible rate cut in June has decreased somewhat compared to previous weeks. Analysts state that despite the slowdown in inflation data, the Fed may not act hastily, and that developments in the labor market will be closely monitored.As a result of these developments, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.09%, testing its lowest level in recent weeks. The dollar index remained relatively stable around 96.9. Driven by safe-haven demand, the price of gold recovered from the previous day's sharp drop to $4,965 per ounce, while silver also recouped some of its losses. On the technology stock side, fragility was noticeable. The reported delay in Apple's Siri update and accounting allegations concerning Meta increased selling pressure in the technology sector, already overshadowed by "high valuation" discussions. Apple shares closed the day down nearly 5%, while leading companies such as Meta, Nvidia, and Palantir also saw losses. These developments led to significant declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.How did the cryptocurrency markets react?The cryptocurrency market also felt the effects of this global volatility. Bitcoin (BTC), which had stabilized around $67,000, rose to $67,700 shortly before the data release. Immediately after the data was released, it fell back to $66,000. While the lower-than-expected inflation data supported risk appetite in the short term, investors' cautious stance caused volatility to continue.
The first non-farm payrolls data for 2026 in the US exceeded expectations, refocusing global market attention on the macroeconomic outlook. According to the report released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 130,000 new jobs were added to the economy in January. Market expectations were only around 70,000. This strong data, following a 48,000 increase in December, indicates a significant acceleration in employment.The unemployment rate also came in below expectations. In January, unemployment fell to 4.3%, while market forecasts predicted it would remain stable at 4.4%. The unemployment rate was also 4.4% in December. Both the higher-than-expected increase in employment and the decrease in unemployment demonstrate the resilience of the US economy at the beginning of the year. Following the release of the data, the initial market reaction was shaped by expectations regarding interest rates. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), which implemented multiple interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025, kept its policy rate unchanged at its January meeting and signaled that it was not keen on another cut in March. Prior to the employment data, the probability of a March rate cut was priced at 21% in interest rate markets. According to CME FedWatch data, this probability dropped to 19% after the strong employment figures. Markets have now pushed back the previously expected rate cut, which was initially projected for as early as June, to July.There was also movement in the bond and dollar markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose five basis points to 4.20%. The dollar index, which had been weak during the day, recovered after the data. Moderate increases were observed in US stock futures indices. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.55%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.5%.How was the crypto market affected?The cryptocurrency market also reacted quickly to the macroeconomic data. Bitcoin, which traded in a narrow range near the $69,000 level throughout the week, retreated to around $67,000 before the data release. Immediately following the announcement of strong employment figures, the price recovered towards the $67,500 level. Despite this, Bitcoin's performance over the last 24 hours remains approximately 2% lower. Looking at the chart, it's clear that downward pressure was evident before the data release, with sales accelerating, especially in the morning hours. However, it's noteworthy that the price reacted from the $67,000 region after the employment figures, making an upward move. This movement shows that investors initially interpreted the data as a signal of "economic strength." On the other hand, the possibility that strong employment could delay Fed interest rate cuts stands out as a factor that could put pressure on risky assets in the medium term. Looking at the overall picture, the US economy performed stronger than expected in the first month of the year. This creates room for the Fed to maintain its cautious stance, while also indicating that volatility may continue in both the stock and crypto markets. Markets will now focus on inflation data and new guidance from Fed members.
A senior Democrat in the US Congress has launched a notable investigation into World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a cryptocurrency project linked to Donald Trump. Representative Ro Khanna has requested comprehensive information and documents from the project, arguing that a $500 million investment, allegedly from an entity linked to the UAE royal family, poses serious risks to both national security and the constitution.WLFI is under investigationKhanna serves as a senior member of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition and the Chinese Communist Party. In a formal letter sent on Wednesday, he posed numerous questions to Zach Witkoff, a co-founder of World Liberty Financial. The letter also cited a previous Wall Street Journal report alleging that a 49% stake in WLFI was acquired by an entity called Aryam Investment 1. This investment is said to be controlled by an entity linked to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE's National Security Advisor and brother of the country's leader. According to the report, the agreement was signed just four days before Trump took office and involved a $250 million upfront payment. It is alleged that $187 million of this amount went to companies linked to the Trump family, and at least $31 million to entities associated with Steve Witkoff.Khanna's letter specifically highlights the Chinese connections. It notes that companies like G42 and MGX, under Tahnoon's control, have had past dealings with Chinese firms, and that following this investment, the US approved export licenses to the UAE for advanced AI chips. These chips have long been under strict control to prevent technology leakage to China.The letter also scrutinizes MGX's $2 billion investment in Binance in March 2025. It states that this transaction was carried out using WLFI's USD1 stablecoin, and that Tahnoon was in contact with Trump in Washington during the same period. The fact that Binance founder Changpeng Zhao is expected to receive a presidential pardon in October 2025, shortly before the chip export approvals, is among the factors raising questions. Khanna argues that when all these developments are considered together, it could constitute not only an ethical scandal but also a violation of the "emoluments clause" of the US Constitution, which prohibits obtaining benefits from foreign governments. In this context, the WLFI is asked to respond to 16 separate questions by March 1, 2026, including ownership structure, investment agreements, due diligence studies with UAE-linked institutions, China-sourced revenues, and potential impacts on policy processes. The requested documents include contracts with Aryam Investment 1, correspondence regarding the Binance deal, and conflict of interest policies. The letter states, "These transactions and investments not only appear improper; they also raise suspicions of illegality. At a time when strategic competition with China is so critical, the American people deserve full transparency." World Liberty Financial has not yet issued any official statement to the public.
US President Donald Trump officially announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Trump shared the name of the successor to current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, with the public on Friday. The nomination confirms market expectations that have been gaining momentum in recent days and is being closely followed in the financial and cryptocurrency markets.Trump made a statement on the matterIn a post on Truth Social, Trump reminded that Warsh previously served on the Fed Board of Governors, worked as a researcher at the Hoover Institution, and taught at Stanford University's Business School. He also emphasized that Warsh served as a partner in the Duquesne Family Office with renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller. Trump stated, "I have known him for a long time, and I have no doubt that we will remember him as one of the best chairmen of the Fed." Warsh, 55, served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006–2011 under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Previously a banker at Morgan Stanley, Warsh is a well-known figure in Washington's economic policy circles. While Trump's official nomination has ended weeks of uncertainty, Warsh still needs to pass the Senate confirmation process to take office. Following confirmation, Warsh could replace Powell for a four-year term. Prior to the nomination announcement, there was significant activity in the prediction markets. On Thursday night, the probability of Warsh becoming Fed chairman rose to 95% on Polymarket, with similar rates seen on Kalshi. This sharp rise occurred as signals strengthened that Trump would announce his nomination. What is Warsh's stance in the crypto space?Warsh's background is also noteworthy from the perspective of the crypto markets. Warsh previously invested in Basis, an algorithmic stablecoin project, and advised Electric Capital, a venture capital firm focused on crypto and blockchain. He is also associated with Bitwise, a crypto index manager, as an investor and advisor. However, Warsh maintains a cautious approach to digital assets. In a speech last year, he stated that he does not see Bitcoin as an alternative to the dollar, but that it could be an important signaling tool for policymakers. On the monetary policy side, Warsh is generally considered a "hawk." During his previous tenure at the Fed, he frequently emphasized inflation risks and was critical of quantitative easing policies and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. More recently, he has argued that AI-driven productivity increases could alleviate inflationary pressures, suggesting that interest rate cuts could be considered under certain conditions. Trump's shortlist previously included names like Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder. However, the clear shift in favor of Warsh in the final hours has formalized his nomination. Now all eyes are on the Senate confirmation process and how Warsh will steer the Fed's monetary policy in balancing inflation, growth, and financial innovation.
US President Donald Trump is preparing to announce the new head of the Federal Reserve (Fed) today. According to sources close to the White House, Trump's preference is largely clear, and markets expect Kevin Warsh to replace current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. While the official announcement is expected later today, the strong predictions favoring Warsh are noteworthy. In a brief statement following his meeting with Kevin Warsh on Thursday, Trump described his chosen candidate for the Fed chairmanship as someone who "would surprise no one." The President concluded his statement by saying, "Someone who could have held this position a few years ago." These words pointed to Warsh, whose name has been circulating in the corridors of power for some time. Indeed, Bloomberg reported that the White House is preparing Warsh for the Fed chairmanship, but the final decision will not be considered final until the official announcement. Reuters also wrote that Trump's meeting with Warsh was quite positive.The new Fed era is being priced into the marketsThe shift in market expectations has also been quickly reflected in prediction platforms. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Kevin Warsh being appointed as Fed chairman quickly rose from around 30% to over 94%. During the same period, the probability of Rick Rieder, previously considered the favorite, sharply declined. A similar trend emerged on the Kalshi platform, where Warsh's probability was priced above 90%. Kevin Warsh served on the Fed Board of Governors from 2006–2011 and was at the center of monetary policy debates during the most turbulent period of the global financial crisis. In recent years, he has been known more for his emphasis on tight monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and the fight against inflation. Analysts believe that if Warsh becomes Fed chairman, he will distance himself from quantitative easing policies and send a more "hawkish" message to the markets. This expectation has already begun to show its effect in financial markets. As the probability of Warsh becoming chairman strengthened, the US dollar gained value, and Treasury bond yields rose. Investors have begun pricing in the expectation that monetary policy may shift to a more cautious and inflation-focused approach. From the perspective of the crypto markets, Warsh's approach holds particular significance. Jerome Powell has, until now, tended to view the role of Bitcoin and other crypto assets within the US financial system as limited. In contrast, Warsh has previously stated that he does not see Bitcoin as a threat to the Fed, but rather as a feedback mechanism that provides market discipline. This approach is interpreted by crypto investors as a more constructive tone. On the other hand, the Fed kept its policy interest rate unchanged at this week's FOMC meeting. Having cut interest rates three times at the end of last year, the bank maintains its cautious stance due to inflation still being above targets. Trump, however, has increased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates faster and more sharply. This tension is further exacerbated by the fact that Powell's term ends in May. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated and confirmed by the Senate, this appointment could signal a significant shift in the Fed's rhetoric regarding digital assets and risky market instruments. While markets await Trump's announcement, uncertainty about the Fed's future direction is already being priced in globally.
Bitcoin traded sideways just below the $89,000 level, while the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market was one of cautious optimism. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, expected around 9 PM Turkish time, investors appeared hesitant to take risks, resulting in price movements remaining within a narrow range. Bitcoin traded around $88,800 in the morning, showing a limited recovery effort after the volatile start to the week. On the Ethereum front, a stronger performance was evident. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose by nearly 2%, approaching the $3,000 level, while most large-scale altcoins also saw slight increases. However, it is argued that these increases do not signal the start of a strong trend, but rather represent short-term stabilization movements in a market currently in a waiting mode. This calm trend in the cryptocurrency market mirrors the global market sentiment. Asian stock markets are testing new highs, while US futures indices are also indicating a positive opening. Optimism, particularly towards technology stocks and AI investments, is keeping risk appetite alive in equity markets. The S&P 500 index closed at a record high, while the financial results to be announced this week by major technology companies are among the main agenda items for the markets.The weak performance of the US dollar is also one of the main factors supporting risky assets. The dollar index fell to its lowest levels since the beginning of 2022 during the week, and investors began pricing in more flexible messages from the Trump administration regarding the "weak dollar." This situation has led to sharp increases in precious metals such as gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies appear to have lagged behind this rally.Leveraged positions are noteworthyAccording to market analysts, Bitcoin's recovery from the $86,000-$87,000 range is related more to the clearing of leveraged positions than to a strong buying wave. The concentration of long liquidations in this region reduced excessive leverage in the market and allowed the short-term price structure to become more balanced. Therefore, the recent rise is considered more of a technical relief than a momentum boost.The Fed's interest rate decision and the messages it will deliver today will be decisive for the crypto market in the short term. The market is generally pricing in a decision to keep interest rates unchanged. However, signals regarding inflation and the future interest rate path may cause a new direction to be determined in risky assets. A more dovish tone could revive interest in crypto assets, while a cautious or tight stance could bring about a new price correction.On the other hand, it is frequently stated that the strong performance of global equity markets in recent months has drawn capital from crypto. Fund flows towards large technology stocks are among the factors limiting the rises in Bitcoin and altcoins. This situation shows that the crypto market is waiting for clarification on the macro front and is struggling to enter an aggressive upward trend without a strong catalyst. Looking at the current situation, Bitcoin appears to be struggling to hold its ground within a narrow range, while the market continues to search for direction. Without clarity on the Fed's decision, the balance sheets of major tech companies, and the trajectory of the dollar, a strong and sustained upward movement in the cryptocurrency market seems unlikely. For now, prices are holding steady, but momentum has not yet been generated.
Global markets are focused on this week's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Following three consecutive interest rate cuts in the last three meetings, the direction the US central bank will take in its January meeting is one of the most important factors determining the direction of both traditional markets and crypto assets.The US Federal Reserve's (FED) January 2026 FOMC meeting will be held on January 27-28. The interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM Turkish time. Statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the decision will be closely watched by the markets.What is expected from the Fed meeting?Market pricing indicates a very high probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of interest rates remaining at their current level has risen above 97 percent. This rate was around 95 percent last week. This growing expectation indicates that investors do not anticipate a new easing step from the Fed in the short term. As a reminder, the Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range at its December meeting. Thus, the bank has made three consecutive rate cuts in the last three meetings. The main purpose of these steps was to prevent a sharp slowdown in the labor market from turning into a permanent increase in unemployment rates. However, the latest FOMC minutes show that a significant portion of Fed officials believe that caution should be exercised at this point. The minutes show that some members expressed the view that it would be healthier to keep the policy rate stable for a while after three consecutive rate cuts. The fact that inflation is still above the target level and that mixed signals continue in the labor market are among the factors that make the decision-making process difficult. While the latest non-farm payroll data released in the US was below expectations, the limited decline in the unemployment rate reinforced the view that the Fed should not act hastily. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also drew attention to this dilemma in his recent statements. Powell pointed out that both inflation and unemployment risks are simultaneously on the rise, emphasizing that balancing two different risks with a single policy tool is extremely difficult. These statements support expectations that the Fed may adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy in the short term.This uncertainty regarding the interest rate decision is also causing volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. While the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is around $2.99 trillion, leading crypto assets remain under pressure despite a limited recovery across the market. Losses in large-cap coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have been noticeable in recent days.According to market analysts, the sharp rise in gold and silver prices is also contributing to this weak outlook. The shift in safe-haven demand towards precious metals is accelerating the exit from risky assets. Some forecasting platforms have even increased the probability of the Fed maintaining its current interest rate level to 99%. This expectation indicates that volatility may continue in the crypto market in the short term. In summary, while the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting wasn't a major surprise for the markets, the decision text and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks will be crucial in terms of pricing. In the crypto market, the real direction is expected to become clearer with the signals the Fed will give regarding future meetings.
Cryptocurrency markets experienced sharp fluctuations following Donald Trump's messages in Davos. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $88,000 before recovering to the $90,000 level. This movement was driven by Trump softening his tariff threats against Europe over Greenland. This reversal created a sudden relief in crypto markets, which have become extremely sensitive to macroeconomic developments in recent days.The volatile trend once again demonstrated the impact of Trump's Davos engagements at the World Economic Forum on cryptocurrency prices. At the beginning of the week, harsh tariff rhetoric against Europe and rising global bond yields weakened risk appetite, leading to rapid sell-offs in crypto assets. The sharp sell-offs, particularly in long-term Japanese government bonds, tightened global financial conditions and forced investors to exit risky positions. However, the picture changed during Asian trading. Trump's statement that he would refrain from imposing tariffs on European countries that oppose US control over Greenland softened the market tone. Trump described this statement as "a framework for a future agreement." This statement reinforced the perception that a new trade war is not on the horizon in the short term and triggered a recovery in the crypto markets.Donald Trump's softening of tariff rhetoric eased tensions in cryptoBitcoin quickly recovered, approaching $90,000 after falling to around $87,300 overnight. Despite being positioned as an alternative store of value, Bitcoin continues to react with investors' risk-aversion reflexes during periods of uncertainty. A similar picture was seen in the altcoin market. Ethereum tested below $3,000 in the sell-off, then rose above $3,020, limiting its daily losses. Solana recovered to around $130, while XRP approached the $1.95 level again. Cardano rebounded from weekly lows, heading towards $0.37. Dogecoin also recovered some of its losses around $0.127. The overall picture pointed to a temporary search for equilibrium rather than a strong risk-on rally. The striking aspect of the market was the speed of these movements. Trump's harsh rhetoric triggered sell-offs, while equally rapid messages of conciliation reversed the price trend. Such "whipsaw" movements are becoming increasingly common in this market, where algorithmic and leveraged trading, reacting instantly to macroeconomic events, is gaining prominence. Diplomatic contacts also played a role in this process. Trump announced a "very productive" meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and that an agreement had been reached on a framework for the future of Greenland and the Arctic region. Following this announcement, he stated that the planned tariffs on European Union countries would not take effect on February 1st. These messages, of course, also affected traditional markets. US futures indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining approximately 1.3 percent during the day. Gold, which approached record levels due to safe-haven demand, gave back some of its gains. In the coming days, investors will closely watch whether the relief stemming from Davos will be permanent. As of writing, the Bitcoin price has fallen to $89,750.
