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The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in well below market expectations in July, paving the way for a short-term relief bounce in Bitcoin. According to the data, released one day earlier due to the July 4 holiday, the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June. Markets had expected an increase of 114,000, while the previous month’s figure stood at 172,000. The unemployment rate was also recorded at 4.2%, instead of the expected 4.3%.Bitcoin was trading around $61,700 when the data was released. According to TradingView data, the cryptocurrency briefly moved higher after the announcement and approached the $62,000 mark, before fluctuating within that range for the rest of the day. The limited price reaction suggests that the market interpreted the weak employment data as a development that could increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, but did not price it in with aggressive buying. Kyle Rodda of Capital.com described the nonfarm payrolls report as the most critical data release of the week. According to Rodda, markets had lowered the probability of a rate hike this month from 33% at the beginning of the week to 28%; weak employment figures could reinforce this expectation. It is also worth noting that the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in June for the fourth consecutive time, while rate cut expectations were pushed back to 2027 due to the hawkish stance of new Chair Kevin Warsh.Bitcoin spent most of the week under pressureBefore the employment data, Bitcoin had already been through a difficult week. The cryptocurrency fell to a 21-month low during the week, dropping to $57,800. According to Bitfinex analysts, this marked the fourth time in the cycle that a decline in bond yields and a drop in Bitcoin’s price occurred at the same time; Bitcoin continued to pull back even as the S&P 500 closed the quarter at a record high.Two main groups are behind the selling pressure. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, marking their worst month since their launch in January 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for $3.55 billion in outflows. In addition, Strategy’s board approved the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin on June 29 to build dollar reserves and meet liabilities. The company’s stock is now trading roughly 30% below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.Despite this, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that long-term investors have started accumulating again. According to Beamish, buying appetite is spreading across a wide range of participants, from small wallets to entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. However, for the first time during this downturn, the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the amount held in profit; approximately 10.83 million BTC is currently being held below its cost basis.A similar picture is emerging on the Ethereum sideEthereum, meanwhile, recovered from its low near $1,500 and climbed into the $1,600-$1,620 range. Simon-Peter Massabni of XS.com described this move not as a confirmed reversal, but as buying from a technical bottom. Spot ETH funds have seen net outflows for seven consecutive weeks, with total outflows reaching $1.18 billion during this period.In the coming days, the market’s main focus will be how much the weak employment data influences the Fed’s rate decision. For now, whether Bitcoin can break above the $62,000 resistance level on a sustained basis appears to depend on both macro data and the direction of ETF flows.
The first trading day of July brought a mixed picture for spot crypto ETFs traded in the United States. While Bitcoin and XRP funds saw outflows, investors preferred to increase their positions in Ethereum and Solana. This divergence across the four assets suggests that investors entered July with mixed risk appetite. The size of the outflow from Bitcoin was especially notable, as it showed that the inflow trend seen in recent weeks had been interrupted, at least in the short term.Third Daily Outflow for BitcoinSpot Bitcoin ETFs closed July 1 with net outflows of $294.62 million. This marked one of the largest single-day outflows seen in recent weeks. Considering that institutional investors had largely added money to these funds throughout June, the pullback at the start of the month stood out. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin fell as low as $58,000 toward the evening yesterday. As shown in the chart below, the price move was sharp: Daily swings of this kind are not exactly new for the market. Since their launch, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced several similar days of sharp outflows, only to recover within a few days. Still, a figure approaching $300 million shows that short-term investors entered July with a more cautious stance.Ethereum Returns to Positive TerritoryEthereum ETFs recorded $14.89 million in net inflows on the same day. Unlike the outflows seen in Bitcoin, interest in Ethereum funds has remained relatively steady recently. This has also led to comments that some investors may be shifting their portfolios from Bitcoin toward Ethereum, although it is still too early to speak of such a rotation based on a single day of data.A Modest but Positive Picture for SolanaSolana ETFs ended the day with $521,000 in net inflows. The figure is small, but given Solana’s relatively new position in the spot ETF market, a consistently positive trend remains an important signal. Although total fund size is still far behind Bitcoin and Ethereum, the fact that daily flows have not turned negative shows that demand for Solana funds remains alive.Limited Outflow in XRPXRP ETFs saw net outflows of $1.86 million. This figure remains quite small compared with the outflow from Bitcoin and does not point to a trend reversal on its own.Looking at the broader picture for the day, the key takeaway is clear: some of the capital leaving Bitcoin and XRP funds was likely pulled from the market due to profit-taking or short-term risk reduction. The positive flows into Ethereum and Solana, meanwhile, show that interest in these two assets remains alive, at least for now.
Tokyo-based Metaplanet announced that it purchased another 2,823 Bitcoin in the second quarter. The company’s total reserves have now climbed to 43,000 BTC. The purchase reportedly cost around $221 million.Known as Japan’s first publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company, Metaplanet has now grown its holdings by around 22.5% compared to where it started the year. The company’s average purchase cost across its portfolio stands in the $97,000 to $104,000 range. Since Bitcoin has been trading well above this range in recent weeks, the company is currently sitting on a significant paper profit.Buying pace accelerates quarter by quarterMetaplanet’s accumulation story actually goes back only a short time. The company closed 2025 with 35,102 BTC. It then added another 5,075 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 40,177 BTC as of March 31. That purchase required a budget of roughly $398 million to $405 million, with the average unit price landing in the $78,000 to $80,000 range. Now, with the additional 2,823 BTC bought in the second quarter, the total has risen to 43,000 BTC.The company began accumulating Bitcoin in April 2024, when it was still a small hotel and technology operator. At the time, its holdings stood at just 97.85 BTC. By the end of 2024, that figure had risen to 1,761 BTC, and by September 2025 it had reached 30,823 BTC. In other words, the company’s Bitcoin holdings have grown rapidly over the past year and a half.Target is 100,000 BTC, but the road is longMetaplanet’s publicly announced targets under its “555 Million Plan” are highly ambitious. The company aims to reach 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The latter figure would equal roughly 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Based on the current picture, CEO Simon Gerovich and his team need to buy another 57,000 BTC in the next six months. At current prices, that would cost more than $5 billion, which means the company will likely need to pursue multiple large-scale share issuances and debt financing rounds to reach this target.The company mainly finances these purchases through share issuances, warrant sales and revenue generated from Bitcoin options. In January, it raised $137 million through a share and warrant sale aimed at overseas institutional investors. Its additional financing potential can also reach up to $276 million.Challenging third place in corporate rankingsWith this latest purchase, Metaplanet has entered a close race with Twenty One Capital in terms of corporate Bitcoin ownership. Strategy still sits at the top of the ranking with more than 762,000 BTC in reserves. Among the names Metaplanet has surpassed is MARA Holdings, which sold a significant portion of its Bitcoin holdings in recent months to repay debt.The risk side of the picture should not be ignored either. Metaplanet is using share dilution and debt financing to buy a highly volatile asset. In a prolonged downturn scenario, the company’s average cost base in the $97,000 to $104,000 range will become a critical threshold for investors to watch closely. The more than $5 billion in capital needed to reach the year-end target is another factor that must be evaluated together with the dilution risk that could come with successive share and debt issuances.
Nearly 1,700 British investors have filed a group lawsuit against Binance, its founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, and Abu Dhabi-based Nest Exchange at the High Court in London. According to the claim form filed on June 29, the exchange allegedly sold crypto derivative products to retail investors for years without obtaining regulatory approval.The claim form, submitted by law firm KP Law on behalf of 1,692 claimants, including lead claimant Tomas Sutas, alleges that the defendants sold leveraged tokens, crypto futures, options, and margin trading products to British consumers from around September 13, 2019. The filing claims this violated the Financial Services and Markets Act.What does the legal basis say?The claim argues that the sales violated the general prohibition on carrying out regulated activities without authorization. It also alleges that the promotion of these products breached rules on unauthorized financial promotions.The claimants are seeking the return of money and property they paid, as well as damages and interest under the Senior Courts Act 1981.CZ and Binance Holdings are named as additional defendants in the case on the grounds that they allegedly acted in “common design” with the entities operating the platform. A fourth defendant, covering other entities that operated the Binance trading platform, is listed only as “Persons Unknown.”The gap between the figures stands outAccording to court documents, the amount claimed in the claim form is listed as “exceeding £200,000” ($264,900). This figure is actually the threshold that triggers a court fee of £10,067 when filing the case.KP Law, however, told media outlets including Reuters that the group is seeking more than £150 million ($200 million) in total. That figure does not appear in the claim form itself.In a statement, Binance said full compliance with UK regulations remains a priority for the company. A spokesperson said the exchange remains committed to its obligations to users and will defend itself against the allegations through the appropriate legal process when the time comes.Past records add weight to the caseThe lawsuit comes after Binance pleaded guilty in the United States in 2023 to anti-money laundering and sanctions violations. That case resulted in a $4.3 billion fine for the exchange and a four-month prison sentence for CZ. CZ was later pardoned by President Donald Trump.The development also came just days after Binance withdrew its MiCA license application in Greece. In comments to The Block, CZ claimed the application had been “fully compliant” and close to approval before unnamed political forces intervened.The case is still at an early stage. It is not yet clear when Binance will file its formal defense.
According to the annual financial disclosure report published on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s income included hundreds of millions of dollars earned through his family’s crypto company World Liberty Financial, as well as thousands of dollars in investments in companies such as Coinbase and Strategy. The 927-page report, prepared by the Office of Government Ethics, covers a wide investment portfolio ranging from Domino’s Pizza and Costco to Victoria’s Secret, Lockheed Martin and major banks such as JPMorgan.The most striking item in the report was the income generated from World Liberty Financial, which came to light at a time when Congress is debating a comprehensive bill aimed at regulating the crypto sector. Democrats are demanding that an ethics clause be added to the bill, barring the president, vice president, members of Congress and other federal officials from certain cryptocurrency transactions in exchange for supporting the legislation.According to the disclosure, Trump earned more than $65.6 million from the sale of his stake in WLF Holdco and $236.25 million from distributed proceeds from World Liberty Financial’s token sales. The report also listed Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDC, LINK, AAVE, ENA, MOVE and ONDO holdings kept in cold wallets linked to World Liberty Financial, along with roughly $1.8 million in Ethereum staking rewards.Trump’s portfolio also includes an investment of up to $100,000 in crypto exchange Coinbase, as well as multiple investments in Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy.Vance’s Disclosure Was Much SimplerThe financial disclosure of Vice President JD Vance, released on the same day, was far shorter at just 17 pages. Vance reported holding up to $500,000 in Bitcoin.The Trump administration’s close ties to the crypto sector are once again becoming a point of debate at a time when the regulatory process is shaping a law that directly covers the products of these companies. The fact that World Liberty Financial was founded by the president’s own family and that Trump directly earned income from the company stands out as one of the factors strengthening conflict-of-interest claims.Crypto Lobby’s Rise in WashingtonThis disclosure also highlights how much the crypto sector’s influence in U.S. politics has grown over the past few years. During the 2024 election cycle, crypto companies and investors channeled hundreds of millions of dollars into election campaigns through super PACs, turning the industry into one of the most powerful lobbying groups in Congress.They have also begun to see returns on that investment. The market structure bill being debated in the Senate aims to clarify which regulatory agency will oversee digital assets and to provide exchanges with a more predictable framework.However, the fact that Trump’s own family directly earns income from a crypto company is raising more questions about the neutrality of the bill. World Liberty Financial was founded in late 2024 by a group that included Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., and quickly raised hundreds of millions of dollars through token sales. The company’s stablecoin, USD1, also drew attention after it began being used in transactions involving some Middle Eastern investment funds.Ethics experts have long argued that it is unprecedented for a sitting president to earn income from the private sector on this scale. Traditionally, presidents have transferred their assets into blind trusts to avoid conflicts of interest. The Trump administration has been criticized for not adopting this practice, and his stake in World Liberty Financial has become one of the clearest examples of that debate.
U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds closed June with $4.5 billion in net outflows. This marked their worst month since launching in January 2024.Nine-Day StreakAccording to SoSoValue data, June 30 alone saw $222.6 million in outflows, extending the negative streak to nine days. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the largest share of the damage: the fund saw $3.55 billion in outflows this month alone. The total figure surpassed the previous record of $3.48 billion, set in February 2025, by 29%. Macro Rotation or Loss of ConfidencePaul Howard of Wincent said in a statement that the outflows were driven more by a broader macro rotation than by any deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. High interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and a cautious macro environment have pushed institutions to reduce their exposure to risk assets.STS Digital CEO Maxime Seiler offered a simpler explanation: after last year’s heavy capital inflows, the market has run out of fresh money. On top of that, capital moved heavily in another direction throughout the month, toward SpaceX’s public offering.This scenario is not exactly unfamiliar. Some analysts had previously suggested that the SpaceX IPO could pull capital away from the crypto market. According to CNN, SpaceX’s public offering, with the sale of 555 million shares and $75 billion raised, created the highest single-day net buying volume by retail investors in history.Seiler’s view is clear: new capital flowing into Bitcoin is declining, while SpaceX has absorbed a significant amount of money from the market. The market structure bill still has not passed through Congress, and there is no new catalyst to wait for. What remains is an excess supply that is slowly being absorbed through ETFs.The numbers also support this view. Total net assets in ETFs have fallen from a peak of more than $110 billion at the start of the year to $70.9 billion. Still, cumulative net inflows since launch remain above $51 billion, meaning the overall picture is still positive.Pressure on Bitcoin’s Price ContinuesBitcoin is trading around $58,500, a level not seen since September 2024. It has lost 20% over the past 30 days and 45% over the past year, while volatility has increased in parallel.Bitfinex’s latest Alpha report is even more pessimistic: Bitcoin could fall toward the $40,000 area by the fourth quarter of the year.Lynq CEO Jerald David says ETF outflows could reduce spot demand and create short-term selling pressure. Combined with a cautious macro environment, this could increase volatility and make it harder for Bitcoin to maintain upward momentum.Still, not everyone is this bearish. Renna Ba, head of ecosystem at Morph, reads the picture differently: this is not institutions losing interest in Bitcoin, but speculative positioning cooling down. According to Ba, the crypto market is actually going through a period of stabilization, and real resilience will come not from trading volume, but from onchain usage.
Bitcoin treasury company Strategy did not buy Bitcoin during the week of June 22-28. According to an 8-K filing submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company directed $1.15 billion raised through MSTR share sales not to Bitcoin, but to its USD reserve and a new buyback program.Its total Bitcoin holdings remained unchanged at 847,363 BTC. That is worth roughly $51 billion and represents more than 4% of Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap. Strategy built this position at an average price of $75,651 per BTC, for a total cost of $64.1 billion including fees. At current prices, the company is sitting on an unrealized loss of around $13 billion.New Framework: The Reserve Is No Longer FlexibleStrategy’s new policy, called the Digital Credit Capital Framework, tightens the rules around where its USD reserve can be used. The reserve can now only be used for preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments, and nothing else. Under a board decision, the company must maintain a minimum balance equal to at least 12 months of dividend and interest obligations.As of June 28, the reserve balance had risen to $2.55 billion. On June 21, that figure was $1.4 billion, showing a rapid increase in just one week. Part of the increase comes from share sales that had not yet fully settled.The source of the increase was MSTR share sales. Strategy sold 12,669,017 MSTR shares last week for roughly $1.15 billion. As of June 28, the company still had $24.3 billion worth of MSTR shares available for sale under the program.CryptoQuant analysts made a sharper recommendation last week: building reserves is not enough, the company should stop buying Bitcoin completely. The reason is simple; as the dividend burden grows, cash is being depleted quickly.STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK: Buyback Priority Is SetStrategy announced a $1 billion buyback program for its outstanding digital credit securities, STRC, STRF, STRD and STRK. STRC is first in line.The new STRC Dividend Policy has also changed. The rate will now be recalculated every month. STRC’s trading level, market yields, credit spreads, Bitcoin’s price and volatility, the state of the USD reserve, market conditions and the company’s capital structure will all be included in the calculation. Strategy emphasized one point in particular: even if STRC trades below its stated value, that alone will not be considered a reason to increase the dividend.Through a separate program, independent of the USD reserve, the company also allocated $1 billion for buybacks of its Class A shares, MSTR. Finally, the BTC Monetization Program was launched. Under this program, Strategy may occasionally sell Bitcoin to generate up to $1.25 billion in cash to fund the USD reserve, dividend payments or other buyback programs.Saylor: “We’re Going to Need More Charts”Michael Saylor reshared the company’s Bitcoin purchase chart on X on Sunday, this time with the note, “We’re going to need more charts.” Unlike previous posts, there was no new Bitcoin purchase this time. Saylor appeared to be referring to the new framework.On Monday, the STRC dividend rate was increased by 50 basis points to 12.00%, effective from the July 2026 record dates. Saylor repeated that the goal is to keep STRC in the $99-100 range over time.Last week’s picture was grim. After Bitcoin fell below $60,000, STRC dropped as low as $71.25 and only recovered to $74.57 on Friday. MSTR had an even worse week. The stock lost 30% over five trading days and fell to $82.31, its lowest level since the start of 2024. Since its July 2025 peak of $455.90, the stock has lost 82% of its value.Behind this concern is the relationship between the company’s market value and its net asset value. Strategy’s mNAV ratio, calculated as market value plus debt and preferred shares, minus cash, divided by the value of its Bitcoin holdings, fell below 1 on Friday. Another name has now joined the list of Bitcoin treasury companies whose premiums are under pressure.On Monday, Saylor said the company would act cautiously with MSTR issuance, especially when the stock is trading near 1x mNAV.According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, 199 publicly traded companies currently hold Bitcoin. The four names following Strategy are Tether-backed Twenty One with 43,514 BTC, Metaplanet with 40,177 BTC, MARA with 36,303 BTC, and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, backed by Adam Back and Cantor Fitzgerald, with 30,021 BTC.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to close June with $4.06 billion in net outflows. According to SoSoValue data, this marks the largest monthly outflow since the funds launched in January 2024. The previous record was set in February 2025, when outflows reached $3.56 billion; June has now surpassed that level by more than half a billion dollars. Data from the final two trading days of the month could still slightly change the total.Last week alone, the funds saw $1.79 billion in outflows, making it the second-largest weekly loss since trading began in 2024. More importantly, it marked the latest week in a seven-week negative streak, the longest weekly outflow series in the products’ history. The picture moved in the opposite direction of expectations at the start of the month. SpaceX’s public listing on June 12 was expected to draw institutional attention back to Bitcoin. What happened was the opposite.$6.5 Billion in Two MonthsIn May, the ETFs recorded $2.43 billion in net outflows. Combined with June, the two-month total has reached $6.5 billion; a figure close to the total market value of Zcash (ZEC), one of the world’s 15 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Net outflows in the first half of 2026 have now reached $5 billion.The decline in institutional demand is also visible in price action. Bitcoin lost nearly 30 percent in the first half of the year, making it one of the worst-performing major asset classes. Shares of Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, the publicly traded company known for its Bitcoin treasury strategy, fell 45 percent over the same period.IBIT Investors Turn From Profit to Loss in One YearThe fund hit hardest by the outflows was BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT. According to calculations by investment research firm Bespoke Investment Group, the average investor in IBIT is now down around 40 percent. In mid-2025, the same investor group was still up 30 percent. Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, described the situation as a “brutal introduction to Bitcoin for mainstream investors.”The numbers also support that picture. IBIT has collected a total of $60.77 billion since launch, but its current net assets stand at $44.42 billion. The $16 billion gap is entirely the result of Bitcoin’s price decline and has widened from $13.4 billion in mid-June. On the final trading day of the week, all of the $444.51 million that flowed out of the funds came from IBIT alone.Fed’s Hawkish Stance Fueled the SellingThe wave of selling came at the same time as the Federal Reserve’s increasingly restrictive stance. At its June 18 meeting, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged, but removed language from its statement that had previously signaled possible easing. After that, markets began pricing in a more than 50 percent probability of a rate hike in December.Bitcoin was trading around $59,700 at the time of writing. That level is more than 50 percent below its record high of $126,272, reached in October 2025.Ethereum ETFs are showing a similar pattern. They saw $273.34 million in outflows during the same week, marking their seventh consecutive weekly loss. That streak is one week short of the category’s eight-week run of outflows in early 2025. Ethereum was trading around $1,570 at the same time.The only exception was seen in smaller crypto funds. Hyperliquid’s three funds attracted $108.09 million on Thursday, marking their strongest day since launching in mid-May. XRP funds also recorded $15.63 million in inflows, their highest daily figure in recent weeks. Still, even the best of these numbers remained below the $444.51 million that flowed out of IBIT alone on the final trading day of the week.
Bitcoin fell 4.8% in less than an hour on June 25, sliding from the $61,500 range to as low as $58,400. The decline was driven by a sell-off that started in technology stocks on U.S. exchanges and spilled over into the crypto market.According to market data, Bitcoin opened the day at $59,524 before a sharp breakdown in the afternoon. The price quickly dropped to the $58,400 range, then recovered to around $59,400. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $59,422. The speed of the move was striking. On the chart, the price had been moving calmly sideways in the $61,000-$61,600 range until around 16:00 TRT. Within the next hour, it turned into a steep red candle to the downside.Liquidations Accelerated QuicklyDuring the sudden decline, five separate positions worth more than $10 million were liquidated. In total, nearly $560 million in positions were closed across the market in less than half an hour. Leveraged long positions triggered the next layer of liquidations as the price kept breaking lower, creating the classic setup traders call a “liquidation cascade.”Bitcoin’s move below $59,000 marked the second major pullback of the month. The more striking detail is that Bitcoin fell below $59,000 for the first time since October 10, 2024. BTC has now lost more than half of its value since its October 2025 peak of $126,000.The Main Trigger Came From Outside CryptoAccording to some analysts, the drop was not driven by crypto-specific market dynamics. Instead, selling pressure from U.S. technology and semiconductor stocks spilled over from the previous day and weakened risk appetite more broadly. Bitcoin was caught in that wave. In recent months, when volatility rises in equities, Bitcoin has increasingly behaved less like a safe haven and more like a risk asset.Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are also making the picture heavier. The funds have recorded seven straight weeks of net outflows, pointing to weaker institutional demand. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, also sold Bitcoin for the first time in years during this period, reigniting debate over whether the company’s long-standing “never sell” stance is still as firm as it once was.Key Levels AheadAnalysts warn that a break below the $58,000 level could trigger a fresh wave of liquidations. According to Coinglass data, nearly $1.6 billion in additional long positions could be at risk if the price slips below that threshold.On the technical side, analysts say the RSI indicator has entered oversold territory. Some investors see this as a possible reversal signal. Still, analysts remain cautious, noting that oversold conditions can last much longer than expected. Whether the market can hold the $58,000-$60,000 range in the coming days will likely determine the short-term direction.
Bitcoin is heading into Friday’s $10.5 billion quarterly options expiry under pressure, with market attention now focused on Deribit’s positioning data.Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, shows its Bitcoin volatility index, DVOL, at 41.5%. The index measures Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility. That is far below the 90% peak recorded in February, but slightly above the lows seen in May.Jean-David Péquignot, Deribit’s head of commercial operations, said volatility is cheap compared with its own history, though it can no longer be described as “low-priced.”Cheap volatility means investors expect more limited Bitcoin price movements compared with the past year. It also makes options contracts used for hedging against price swings less expensive. Since volatility tends to revert to its mean, investors often turn to options when they believe volatility has become cheap relative to historical levels.According to Péquignot, implied volatility on call options is noticeably cheaper than on put options, making bullish call spread strategies more attractive. He said call spreads still look favorable for those positioning for a recovery after the quarterly reset, and they now look better from a volatility perspective as well. That is because call spread buyers are purchasing the cheaper side of the volatility curve, which is currently skewed in the opposite direction.Several factors could push volatility higher in the near term. The most important one is Friday’s options expiry, which Péquignot described as “one of the most important liquidity events in the annual calendar.”Put option buyers from recent months are currently in profit, while call buyers are seeing their positions move toward expiration without value. Péquignot said that with Bitcoin’s spot price around $64,000, the June 26 expiry book is clearly leaning toward profitable put positions and worthless call positions. Call buyers who chased strikes above $80,000 are now sitting on embedded losses. Another topic of debate ahead of the expiry is the “maximum pain” theory. According to this theory, options sellers tend to push the spot price toward the level where options buyers suffer the largest losses, causing as many contracts as possible to expire worthless. For this expiry, that level is calculated at $72,000, well above Bitcoin’s current price. The theory gained popularity during several expiries in 2020 and 2021, when the price appeared to move closer to those levels, but a similar “pinning” effect has not been clearly observed recently.Focus Turns to PCESignals from outside the Bitcoin market are also being watched closely. Sharp declines in Alphabet (GOOG) and SpaceX (SPCX) shares, combined with weakness in Asian equity markets, could add further pressure on Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s tendency to move in line with technology stocks is already a familiar market pattern.The core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is also on the agenda for Thursday. The data is expected to show the strongest price pressure since May 2024. Such a result could trigger volatility across a wide range of assets, from Treasury bonds to cryptocurrencies.
Long-term investors who have held Bitcoin for at least five years, the group often referred to by the market as “OGs,” appear to have paused their profit-taking for now. This is not a minor detail. These investors had been one of the largest sources of selling pressure on Bitcoin over the past two years; whenever the price climbed, they released their coins into the market and effectively capped the rally themselves. Now, that cycle seems to have slowed, offering important clues about how current price levels and the broader market trend should be interpreted.According to CryptoQuant data, the 90-day average amount of BTC spent by these investors has fallen to 962 BTC. This marks the lowest level seen since November 2024.A CryptoQuant analyst commented on the issue on X, noting that the 90-day average of BTC spent by OGs had fallen below the 1,000 threshold and settled at 962, its lowest level since November 2024. According to the analyst, these investors are choosing to hold their positions rather than sell at current price levels, helping ease selling pressure in the market.The Most Aggressive Selling Period of the Last Two Years Is OverTo understand why this slowdown matters, it is necessary to look at OG behavior over the past two years. The bull cycle that began in early 2023 saw some of the most intense OG selling in Bitcoin’s history. These sales became particularly heavy last year, when BTC was trading above $100,000.Whenever the price jumped, these long-term investors moved to sell in large waves. Notable selling peaks were seen in May 2024, February 2025 and September 2025.Analysts track this behavior through a metric known as STXO, or spent transaction outputs. This metric shows the movement of BTC on-chain. When an OG moves coins that have been held for five years, it is almost always interpreted as a sign of an upcoming sale or profit-taking. At the peak of the bull cycle, single-day sales exceeded 142,000 BTC in some periods, causing sharp market swings. Now, the picture looks different.Why the $63,000 Level MattersAccording to CryptoQuant analysts, the timing of this slowdown in selling is not a coincidence. Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,000; according to the assessment shared by analysts on X, this level corresponds to the “break-even” point for the most expensive coins this group may have purchased five years ago.By choosing to hold their positions at these levels, OG investors have effectively removed a major source of selling pressure that limited Bitcoin’s rise above $100,000 last year.In other words, while pressure on the sell side is weakening, some contrary indicators are also pointing to a possible bottom formation. The slowdown in spot ETF outflows over the past two weeks has also been recorded as another positive signal for the cryptocurrency.You can see the current Bitcoin price in the one-month chart below:
Global asset management giant Franklin Templeton has expanded its institutional growth strategy in the cryptocurrency market with a new step. The company has completed its acquisition of 250 Digital, which operates in active crypto investment management, and officially established a new dedicated digital asset management unit called Franklin Crypto.According to Franklin Templeton’s statement, Franklin Crypto will offer actively managed cryptocurrency strategies to institutional investors. The new unit will combine the crypto investment expertise of the 250 Digital team with Franklin Templeton’s global distribution network. This structure shows that the company does not want to limit its digital asset strategy to passive products alone, and is instead moving toward a more selective, strategy-driven investment model.Franklin Templeton, which manages approximately $1.78 trillion in assets, has become increasingly visible in the digital asset space in recent years. The company had already been working to build a strong position in the sector through spot crypto ETFs, tokenization initiatives and blockchain-based fund infrastructure. The completion of the 250 Digital acquisition now shows that this strategy is being extended into active investment management.250 Digital Team Joins Franklin CryptoAs part of the acquisition, 250 Digital’s entire investment team has joined Franklin Templeton. The statement also noted that the liquid cryptocurrency strategies previously managed by the team under CoinFund have been transferred to Franklin Crypto. This positions the new unit not only as an advisory or research-focused structure, but as a division with direct portfolio management and active strategy development capabilities.Franklin Templeton will also invest its own capital in these liquid strategies as part of the transaction. This detail shows that the company is not merely providing operational support to the newly formed unit, but is also demonstrating financial commitment to its strategies. For institutional investors, such a move can be seen as a sign of the manager’s confidence in its own products. Two well-known names from the crypto industry will lead the new division. Christopher Perkins will serve as Head of Franklin Crypto, while Seth Ginns will serve as the unit’s Chief Investment Officer. They will be joined by Tony Pecore, an experienced figure on Franklin Templeton’s digital asset investment side. Franklin Crypto will operate under Sandy Kaul, the company’s Head of Innovation.Institutional Investor Demand in FocusThe launch of Franklin Crypto also reflects the changing approach of major asset managers toward the cryptocurrency market. In recent years, institutional access to crypto has become significantly easier through spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, but demand in the market is no longer limited to passive products that simply track prices. More sophisticated investors are also showing interest in actively managed strategies built around market cycles, liquidity conditions, token economics and risk management.Franklin Templeton’s move aims to respond directly to this need. Through Franklin Crypto, the company will seek to bring a more traditional asset management discipline to the cryptocurrency market. Elements such as active portfolio management, fundamental research, risk control and institutional reporting could play a decisive role in offering crypto strategies to a broader investor base.A Strategy Beyond ETFsFranklin Templeton already had a separate structure focused on research, active portfolio construction and institutional risk oversight in digital assets. Franklin Crypto now adds a more specialized layer to this infrastructure, directly focused on cryptocurrency strategies.
Bitcoin treasury company Strategy acquired another 520 BTC between June 15 and June 21. According to an 8-K filing submitted to the SEC on Monday, the purchase was made at an average price of $67,068 per BTC and cost a total of $34.9 million.With the latest purchase, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings have reached 847,363 BTC. According to co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor, those holdings are currently worth around $54.8 billion. The average cost basis of the position stands at $75,651 per BTC, while the total bill, including fees and expenses, has climbed to $64.1 billion.The numbers show that Strategy now holds more than 4% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply cap. At current prices, the company’s paper loss is approaching $9.3 billion.Funding Came From MSTR Share SalesThe latest purchases were funded with cash raised through at-the-market sales of Strategy’s Class A common stock, MSTR. Last week, Strategy sold 2,714,839 MSTR shares for approximately $335.5 million. As of June 21, the company still had $25.4 billion worth of MSTR shares available for sale under that program.The company also expanded its ATM programs. It added $21 billion in capacity for MSTR, $21 billion for STRC preferred shares and $2.1 billion for STRK preferred shares. On Sunday, Saylor shared Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase chart with the caption, “Looking better with more dots.” The market is familiar with the phrase; it is usually seen as a signal that Strategy will announce the previous week’s Bitcoin purchase on Monday.STRC Is Still Trading Below ParSTRC, the company’s monthly dividend-paying, floating-rate preferred stock, is designed to trade close to its $100 par value and currently offers an annual yield of 11.5%. Earlier this year, it was Strategy’s main funding source for Bitcoin purchases. However, it has failed to return to par value since mid-May and has not been used to fund Bitcoin purchases over the past month.Strive CEO Matt Cole described last Thursday, when STRC fell to a record low of $82.53, as “the hardest day in digital credit history.” SATA also dropped as low as $92.88 on the same day. STRC closed the session at $88.59, while SATA ended at $97.71. U.S. markets were closed on Friday due to the Juneteenth holiday.Cash Reserve Keeps GrowingStrategy’s dollar reserve is also growing. As of June 21, the reserve balance had risen to $1.4 billion, up from $1.1 billion on June 14. The figure also includes expected cash from shares sold under the ATM program but not yet settled.A small 32 BTC sale last week was criticized by some observers as a move that “spooked” the market. Benchmark and TD Cowen analysts disagreed with that view. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the collapse scenario overlooked the fact that Strategy would not sell Bitcoin before using the $1 billion in cash it had set aside for dividend payments.TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete also said Strategy’s STRC dividend burden could be covered with current reserves. There is one condition: Bitcoin needs to continue rising at least modestly.There Are 199 Companies on the ListAccording to Bitcoin Treasuries data, 199 publicly traded companies have adopted a Bitcoin acquisition model. After Strategy, the top 10 includes Tether-backed Twenty One, Metaplanet, MARA, Adam Back, Cantor Fitzgerald-backed Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, Bullish, Strive, SpaceX, Coinbase and Riot Platforms. They hold 43,514 BTC, 40,177 BTC, 36,303 BTC, 30,021 BTC, 24,300 BTC, 19,105 BTC, 18,712 BTC, 16,492 BTC and 15,680 BTC, respectively.Shares of these companies have fallen sharply from their summer 2025 highs. Market value-to-net asset value ratios, or mNAVs, have also dropped significantly. MSTR is down roughly 75% from its peak. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, its mNAV stands at 0.81, while Strategy’s own calculation, which includes debt and preferred shares, puts the figure at 1.12.Strategy shares lost 5.8% last week and closed Friday at $112.53. The stock is down 27.2% since the start of the year. Over the same period, Bitcoin has declined by around 4%.
According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin mining economics have deteriorated significantly this year. The cryptocurrency has traded below its estimated production cost for five consecutive months, increasing pressure on miners across the industry.JPMorgan analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin’s hash rate, which represents the network’s total computing power, and mining difficulty have become more sensitive to price movements this year. These two indicators normally move relatively independently from the price because deploying or shutting down mining equipment takes time. However, the relationship has strengthened recently.Over the past six months, the beta of mining difficulty relative to Bitcoin’s price has risen to 0.62. According to the analysts, this suggests that a growing share of miners are operating near their break-even point and are more prepared to switch their machines on or off when the price changes. In other words, miners are now reacting to price fluctuations much faster than before.The analysts said in the report:“When Bitcoin trades below its production cost, higher-cost miners shut down their machines, the hash rate declines and mining difficulty adjusts downward accordingly. This pattern was also observed in the second week of June, when difficulty fell by 10%, marking the second decline of this magnitude this year. The previous drop occurred in January.”Production Cost Rises to $78,000JPMorgan currently estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at approximately $78,000. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $62,500. The difference represents a gap of roughly $15,500, forcing a significant share of miners to produce Bitcoin below cost. According to CoinShares’ mining report for the first quarter of 2026, approximately 20% of Bitcoin miners are now operating at a loss. This figure is considerably higher than at the beginning of the year and points to growing consolidation pressure across the industry.Faced with these conditions, publicly traded mining companies sold more than 32,000 Bitcoin during the first quarter alone to cover their operating expenses. That figure exceeded their total sales for the entirety of 2025. The rapid depletion of miner reserves suggests that cash flow problems are affecting major publicly listed companies as well as smaller operators.Difficulty Adjustments Expected to Become More FrequentJPMorgan analysts expect the hash rate to remain highly sensitive to price movements as long as Bitcoin continues to trade significantly below its production cost. They also anticipate larger and more frequent mining difficulty adjustments. The current production cost is estimated at approximately $78,000.The cycle is considered somewhat self-correcting in the short term. As weaker miners shut down, the hash rate declines, partially restoring profitability for those that remain. However, as long as Bitcoin stays below its production cost, the balance is disrupted again and the cycle repeats.JPMorgan has previously maintained a cautious stance on the cryptocurrency market. This time, however, the analysts added an unexpected observation, describing the market’s current weakness as a potential “forward-looking bullish signal.”According to the analysts, periods of severe stress in the mining industry have historically tended to coincide with the formation of price bottoms.
Asset management firm Franklin Templeton has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that would reinvest stock dividends into Bitcoin.According to filings submitted on Thursday, Franklin is seeking to register the Franklin US Equity Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF and the Franklin US Innovation Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF. The funds have an early estimated effective date of September 1, 2026. The funds are designed to track the VettaFi US Large-Cap 500 Bitcoin DRIP Index and an innovation-focused variation of the same index. Under the proposed mechanism, dividends generated by the stocks held in the funds would be systematically invested in Bitcoin instead of being reinvested in equities.The name “DRIP” refers to dividend reinvestment plans, which have traditionally been used to expand equity positions. In this case, the same approach would be used to accumulate Bitcoin.Exposure to Bitcoin would be obtained through Bitcoin exchange-traded products, futures, options and other instruments. In some cases, the funds could gain this exposure through a subsidiary established in the Cayman Islands. VettaFi will manage the underlying indexes.The indexes will begin with a 95% allocation to large-cap US equities and a 5% allocation to Bitcoin. During quarterly rebalancing periods, any Bitcoin allocation exceeding 5% will be reduced to 4.5%. Between rebalancing dates, the total Bitcoin allocation will be capped at 20%.As of April 30, the equity index included approximately 498 securities, with market capitalizations ranging from $7.5 billion to $4.9 trillion.The filing remains preliminary. It does not provide details about the funds’ fees. Under the regulatory framework used for the filing, the ETFs could become effective in approximately 75 days, pointing to a potential launch in early September.A New Entrant Joins the Crowded ETF RaceFollowing the SEC’s introduction of generic listing standards for crypto-linked funds in late 2025, issuers have accelerated efforts to bring new products to market. Bitwise estimates that more than 100 similar ETFs could launch during 2026.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said late last year that the number of pending applications had surpassed 100, highlighting the intense flow of new products from issuers.Much of this activity has moved beyond simple spot Bitcoin exposure, a category dominated by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust with tens of billions of dollars in assets. Issuers are increasingly competing through fund structures and income strategies.These products include covered-call income funds such as BlackRock’s recently launched iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, alongside other structured offerings. Franklin’s model of converting stock dividends into Bitcoin represents the latest example of this trend.The ETF filings also expand Franklin Templeton’s aggressive push into digital assets. The company already operates its own spot Bitcoin ETF, EZBC, which held $358.9 million in net assets and had recorded $329.6 million in cumulative net inflows as of Thursday.Franklin also acquired 250 Digital from CoinFund this year and established a dedicated Franklin Crypto division. The company formed a tokenization partnership with Kraken’s parent company, Payward, while its BENJI tokenized money market funds are now available across multiple blockchains.In May, Franklin Templeton partnered with Payward to explore new ways of tokenizing traditional investment products. Earlier this month, the company integrated its BENJI tokenized money market fund and other tokenized products with MoonPay Trade.The integration allows institutional users to move between stablecoins such as USDC and USDT and Franklin’s tokenized fund through MoonPay’s onchain trading infrastructure.
