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Fannie Mae, one of the most critical players in the US housing finance system, is preparing to launch a mortgage model that accepts crypto assets as collateral. According to information reported by The Wall Street Journal, the new product was developed in collaboration with Better Home & Finance and Coinbase. This step is considered a significant milestone in the integration of digital assets into the traditional financial system.The new model allows users who want to buy a home to use their crypto assets as collateral without selling them. Thus, investors will be able to access housing loans and protect their positions in the crypto market without having to convert their digital assets into cash.The crypto-collateralized loan model is expandingFannie Mae's entry into this field could actually make existing crypto-collateralized loan models more accessible to a wider audience. Given the institution's central role in the US mortgage market, the potential for such a product to become widespread is seen as quite high. Because Fannie Mae is a federally supported institution and operates under the supervision of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the loan products it offers generally have standard-setting characteristics.Under the new mortgage product, it is stated that applicants can use assets such as Bitcoin and USD Coin as collateral. Loans will comply with "conforming loan" standards, similar to traditional mortgage products. This means that consumer protections and loan terms will be similar to the classic system.For Coinbase users, the process is further simplified. Assets on the platform can be transferred to custody wallets without being sold, and users will continue to protect their ownership rights. This structure can allow crypto investors to access liquidity without disrupting their long-term positions. Price fluctuations will not affect loan terms.One of the notable aspects of the model is the details regarding the collateral structure. The "margin call," or additional collateral request, frequently seen in traditional crypto-backed loans, will not be included in this product. This means that even if the value of the crypto assets used as collateral decreases, the loan terms will not automatically change.For the collateral to be at risk, the borrower must fail to meet their payment obligations. Accordingly, if the borrower does not make payments for 60 days, the collateral will be activated. This approach aims to reduce the pressure of volatility in the crypto market on loan users. Uncertainties and Regulatory FrameworkAlthough the development has generated significant buzz, some critical points regarding the product's details remain unclear. Issues such as which crypto assets will be accepted, how collateral valuation will be conducted, and what the risk management criteria will be will be clarified in the coming period.This development is seen as part of a broader integration process for crypto assets in the US. Recently, the steps taken by both regulatory bodies and major financial institutions in the field of blockchain and tokenization have attracted attention. In particular, tokenization initiatives on exchanges and diversification in investment products are strengthening the place of digital assets in the financial system.Bitcoin Price Pulls BackOn the other hand, despite this development, Bitcoin experienced a short-term pullback in price. Trading at around $69,400 with a daily decrease of approximately 3%, BTC moved in parallel with the general market weakness. Macroeconomic pressures and institutional selling are cited as factors influencing this decline.Liquidations seen in derivative markets also put pressure on the price. Approximately $61.7 million worth of Bitcoin positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with the majority of these being long positions. Analysts suggest that a drop below $69,000 could lead to a further decline to $67,800, but a recovery towards the $71,300 region is possible if current levels are maintained.
MARA Holdings, a Bitcoin mining company, has made a notable move in its balance sheet management. The company announced that it sold 15,133 BTC worth approximately $1.1 billion and used the proceeds to repurchase its convertible bonds. According to the announcement, the sales took place between March 4th and March 25th. This process followed immediately after MARA updated its digital asset management policy on March 3rd. With this policy change, the company moved away from its approach of only selling newly mined Bitcoins and included its BTC assets held on its balance sheet in the sale. At the time of the policy change, the company held a total of 53,822 BTC, approximately 28% of which was used in loan and collateral agreements. Debts decreased by 30%MARA used the proceeds to repurchase a significant portion of its interest-free (0.00%) convertible bonds maturing in 2030 and 2031. The company repurchased $367.5 million in principal from 2030 bonds to $322.9 million and $633.4 million from 2031 bonds to $589.9 million. These transactions are expected to be completed on March 30 and 31. As a result of these repurchases, MARA's total convertible debt decreased by approximately 30% to $2.3 billion. Following the transactions, $632.5 million in principal remains on the 2030 bonds and $291.6 million on the 2031 bonds. The company stated that these transactions resulted in approximately $88.1 million in cash savings, excluding transaction costs, which represents a discount of approximately 9% to the nominal value. MARA CEO Fred Thiel emphasized that this move increased the company's strategic flexibility. According to Thiel, the company is now moving away from a structure focused solely on Bitcoin mining and is expanding into digital energy and artificial intelligence/high-performance computing (AI/HPC) infrastructure. This transformation is also seen as part of the company's goal to increase revenue diversification.Weakening financials draw attentionThe company's latest financial results provide important signals for understanding the background of this strategic change. MARA reported a net loss of $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure indicates a sharp deterioration compared to the net profit of $528.3 million recorded in the same period of the previous year. The biggest factor in the loss was stated to be the negative change of $1.5 billion in the fair value of digital assets due to the approximately 30% drop in the price of Bitcoin.A limited decline was also observed on the revenue side. The company's revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year to $202.3 million.
The Kingdom of Bhutan has entered a notable period of unwinding in its Bitcoin holdings. According to recent on-chain data, the country transferred approximately 519.7 BTC from its main wallet addresses, adding about $37 million worth of additional supply to the market. With this latest transaction, Bhutan's total Bitcoin reserves have fallen to 4,453 BTC, while the value of the assets held by the country is approximately in the $315-318 million range. Arkham Intelligence data reveals that some of the transferred Bitcoins went to addresses linked to Singapore-based crypto trading company QCP Capital. This indicates that these transactions were not only a redistribution within wallets but also potentially intended for sale or liquidity management.The pace of selling accelerated in MarchBhutan's transactions throughout March indicate a remarkable acceleration. In just the last few weeks, the country transferred approximately $110 million worth of Bitcoin in total. In the 24-hour period leading up to March 18th, $72 million worth of BTC was moved in six separate transactions, while on March 9th, a transfer of approximately $11.8 million was recorded. The fact that only around 284 BTC was transferred in February makes the increase in March even more significant. This picture shows that Bhutan has entered a systematic process of reducing its Bitcoin reserves.According to Arkham's analysis, Bhutan generally prefers to make tiered sales in the range of $5 to $10 million. However, the significant increase in transfer volume in the last two weeks indicates that this strategy has entered a more aggressive phase.65% Drop from PeakBhutan's Bitcoin holdings peaked at over 13,000 BTC in late 2024. Today, reserves have decreased by approximately 65%. This decrease reflects both regular sales and the use of reserves due to the country's financial needs. Bhutan views its Bitcoin holdings not only as an investment vehicle but also as a source of financing for economic development projects. Specifically, the Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) project plans to utilize crypto reserves. The country also aims to create a strategic crypto reserve including assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB. A model extending from mining to developmentSince 2019, Bhutan has been among the leading countries investing in Bitcoin mining. The country sustains its mining activities with low-cost and environmentally friendly energy thanks to hydroelectric power plants built on rivers fed by glaciers.In 2023, the state sovereign wealth fund Druk Holding and Investments (DHI) decided to expand its mining capacity by forming a $500 million partnership with Bitdeer. This model shows that Bhutan has made crypto directly a part of its economic growth strategy. Market impact and weakening demand signalsBhutan's sales coincide with a fragile period for the Bitcoin market. On-chain data signals weakening demand. Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score indicator is hovering near zero, revealing that investors are more inclined towards distribution than accumulation. Additionally, large investor activity has fallen to its lowest levels since 2023. CryptoQuant's Network Activity Index data also shows a decline in overall network activity and weakening structural demand.
The Bitcoin network witnessed a rare technical event on Monday. A temporary fork, caused by different mining pools producing blocks almost simultaneously, resulted in a two-block "reorganization" (reorg). The event once again demonstrated the network's workings and how its consensus mechanism operates. According to the data, the process began with the formation of competing chains at block heights 941881 and 941882. Foundry USA Pool created its own chain, while AntPool produced an alternative block at the same height. Then ViaBTC pushed AntPool's chain one block further. Simultaneously, Foundry continued to expand its own branch. This short-lived competition presented a different picture than the forks that are sometimes seen on the Bitcoin network but are usually limited to a single block. This time, the competition lasted for two blocks, and therefore it was recorded as a "two-block reorg". The chain with the most manpower wonBitcoin's fundamental consensus rule is based on the chain with the highest total "proof of work" value being considered valid. The same mechanism came into play in this case.Foundry USA Pool's continued production of blocks made its own chain "heavier." Having achieved a series of seven blocks in total, Foundry surpassed competing chains. As a result, the nodes on the network accepted this chain with more manpower as the "canonical," or valid, chain. With this development, blocks produced by AntPool and ViaBTC became "stale blocks." That is, although technically valid, they did not earn rewards because they were outside the final chain.The balance of mining power was decisiveIt is believed that Foundry's high hash rate played a role in its victory. According to current data, Foundry USA Pool controls approximately 32.2% of the Bitcoin network's hash power. In contrast, AntPool's share is 15.7%, while ViaBTC's is 7.2%. This distribution increases the probability of larger pools finding consecutive blocks during short-term forks. However, this alone does not indicate an abnormal development. According to experts, each miner's probability of finding the next block is directly proportional to their hash rate.Why is a two-block reorg rare?Single-block reorganizations can occur from time to time on the Bitcoin network. The main reason for this is that blocks reach different nodes at different times and there is simultaneous block production.However, two-block reorgs are less common. For this to happen, competing chains need to run close to each other for at least two blocks. This has a lower probability in terms of both timing and network latency. No transactions were lostOne of the most frequently asked questions in such events is the fate of transactions. However, no transactions were lost during this reorg. Transactions within stale blocks were either already on the winning chain or returned to the transaction pool, pending processing in subsequent blocks. This once again demonstrated the Bitcoin network's resilience in maintaining data integrity. While this two-block reorg might seem unusual at first glance, it's actually a natural part of Bitcoin's design. The network automatically selects the strongest chain in response to short-term forks, reverting to a single, accurate historical record. This event serves as a recent example of the system working as expected.
Digital asset investment products saw inflows slow to $230 million last week. Compared to previous weeks, this marked a clear deceleration, with market sentiment shaped largely by the “hawkish pause” interpretation following the latest U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. While inflows were strong at the beginning of the week, they reversed sharply after the FOMC decision, resulting in $405 million in outflows; this pressure eased somewhat toward the end of the week.Looking at the broader weekly trend, inflows totaled $635 million across Monday and Tuesday, signaling strong early demand. However, the Fed’s more cautious and tighter stance on its rate path weakened risk appetite and prompted investors to scale back positions. This shift emerged as the main reason behind the relatively modest weekly net inflows.Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins: latest trendsOn an asset level, Bitcoin maintained its clear dominance. With $219.2 million in weekly inflows, it accounted for the majority of total flows, continuing to be seen as a relatively safer option in a period of uncertainty. At the same time, short-Bitcoin products recorded $6 million in inflows, highlighting ongoing divergence in market sentiment. Ethereum, on the other hand, reversed course. After three consecutive weeks of inflows, it recorded $27.5 million in outflows last week, signaling a decline in short-term investor interest. Multi-asset products also saw $2.2 million in outflows, with the category showing a negative trend on a monthly basis.The altcoin landscape presented a more mixed picture. Solana stood out with $17 million in weekly inflows, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and bringing total inflows over that period to $136 million. This underscores Solana’s growing popularity among investors. XRP recorded a modest $2.9 million in weekly inflows, though it still showed a significant $129.7 million in monthly outflows. Chainlink saw $4.6 million in inflows, Sui $1.5 million, and the “other” category added $8.6 million.Litecoin showed no notable weekly movement, though it posted a modest $0.6 million in monthly outflows. No meaningful flows were observed for Zcash.Among investment product providers, iShares led with $257 million in weekly inflows. In contrast, Fidelity saw $105 million in outflows, Grayscale $26 million, and ARK 21Shares $28 million. Bitwise and CoinShares also recorded smaller outflows.Regionally, all major markets recorded net inflows on a weekly basis, which is considered a positive signal. The United States led with $153.6 million, followed by Germany with $30.2 million and Switzerland with $27.5 million. Smaller inflows were also seen in Canada, Brazil, and Australia. However, monthly data still shows ongoing outflows in some regions, particularly in Sweden and Germany.
While institutional players' accumulation strategies in the cryptocurrency market continue unabated, two distinct approaches stood out in the last week, both in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, continued its Bitcoin purchases but at a significantly more cautious pace compared to previous weeks; while Bitmine accelerated its aggressive accumulation in Ethereum, solidifying its position as one of the largest ETH holdings in the market. Strategy slows down its buying paceStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, purchased 1,031 Bitcoins last week. This purchase, totaling $76.6 million, represents a significant slowdown compared to the large-scale purchases exceeding one billion dollars made by the company in the previous two weeks. These Bitcoins were added to the portfolio at an average price of $74,326.The company's total Bitcoin holdings reached 762,099 BTC. Strategy built this accumulation at a total cost of approximately $57.7 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,694. Bitcoin's current price trading just below $70,000 indicates that the company's average cost currently remains above the market price.It was also noted that recent purchases were entirely financed through the sale of shares. In previous weeks, Strategy had used the proceeds from the issuance of STRC preferred shares for its high-volume purchases.On the market side, Strategy shares rose by approximately 1.7% in premarket trading in parallel with these developments. However, the slowdown in the company's purchase pace was interpreted by some investors as a signal to take a more cautious position.Bitmine Aggressively Grows in EthereumOn the other hand, Bitmine Immersion Technologies is exhibiting remarkable growth by focusing on Ethereum in its crypto asset strategy. The company's total crypto, cash, and "moonshot" investments have reached a value of $11 billion. The largest part of this portfolio consists of 4.66 million ETH.The amount of Ethereum held by Bitmine corresponds to approximately 3.86% of the total supply. This ratio makes the company one of the world's largest Ethereum holdings, placing it only behind Strategy's Bitcoin holdings on a global scale.Company management states that they have accelerated their Ethereum purchases, especially in recent weeks. Bitmine, which purchased 65,341 ETH last week, has increased its purchase pace from an average of 45,000–50,000 ETH in previous weeks. This aggressive accumulation strategy reflects the company's expectation that Ethereum is entering a strong recovery phase in the current cycle.Another important pillar of Bitmine's strategy is its staking activities. The company has staked approximately 3.1 million of its 4.7 million ETH. While approximately $184 million in revenue is generated annually from these staking activities, it is stated that this figure could reach $272 million when full capacity is reached. The Crypto "Safe Haven" Narrative is StrengtheningBitmine Chairman Tom Lee points out that crypto assets perform more strongly than traditional assets, especially during periods of geopolitical tension. According to Lee, Ethereum has recently risen by 18%, while gold has lost more than 15% of its value. This situation brings the "safe haven" narrative of crypto assets back to the forefront.In addition, the progress of regulations such as the Clarity Act in the US is seen as a positive catalyst for the market. The fact that the probability of the law passing by the end of the year is priced at over 68% in the forecast markets stands out as a factor that increases the appetite of institutional investors.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s softer tone on the Middle East triggered a strong rebound across the cryptocurrency market in a short period. Bitcoin climbed rapidly from around $68,500 during the day to above $71,000. Signals suggesting a potential, even temporary, easing of geopolitical tensions pushed investors back toward risk assets. Trump statements take center stageIn his remarks, Trump said the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations.” He also noted that planned military operations targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure had been postponed for five days. The decision was said to be contingent on progress in ongoing diplomatic talks. Markets interpreted the development as a sign that tensions could ease in the near term. Following the announcement, Bitcoin gained more than 4%, rising to as high as $71,500 before stabilizing around the $70,000 level. Ethereum saw a similar move, climbing from just above $2,000 to $2,190 and holding near the $2,150 range. Overall, a broad-based recovery was observed across digital assets.However, the drivers behind this rally are not limited to crypto. Global markets continue to be shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly through energy prices and interest rate expectations. Concerns that a potential conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supply via the Strait of Hormuz had recently triggered sharp sell-offs. As a result, any signal of de-escalation is prompting swift reactions across asset classes.On the macro side, volatility in U.S. Treasury markets has increased, with investors frequently repricing rate expectations. In some scenarios, the possibility of further rate hikes this year has even re-entered the conversation. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields have put pressure on traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while also weighing on equities.Within this environment, crypto continues to play a dual role as both a risk asset and an alternative store of value. According to analysts, Bitcoin’s latest move appears to be driven more by traditional risk appetite dynamics rather than acting as a geopolitical hedge. This suggests that prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to macro developments in the near term.Meanwhile, significant liquidations were recorded in derivatives markets during the rally. Data shows that approximately $791 million in leveraged positions were wiped out, with a large portion consisting of long positions. This highlights the elevated volatility in the market and the strong impact sudden price swings can have on traders.Oil reboundsEnergy markets also experienced notable fluctuations. Brent crude fell from above $113 to as low as $98 before recovering, while U.S. crude (WTI) dropped more than 10% before stabilizing. Gold initially declined sharply but later showed signs of recovery. These movements underline how strongly geopolitical risks continue to influence global markets.Update: Despite the U.S. emphasizing diplomacy, Iran said there are currently no negotiations taking place, according to FARS and Tasnim news agencies, and described Trump’s statements as “psychological warfare.” Officials also stressed that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict conditions unless tensions fully subside.
As the sell-off deepened in global markets, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East put pressure on both traditional assets and the crypto market. Asian stock markets approached correction territory, bond yields rose, and oil prices experienced a sharp jump. However, Bitcoin's relative resilience amidst this negative picture was noteworthy. With rising geopolitical risks, investors adopted a more cautious stance, and a widespread sell-off emerged in the markets. Gold, traditionally considered a "safe haven," has lost value continuously for the past nine days, falling to around $4,360. This decline marks one of the longest negative streaks in recent years. Meanwhile, Asian stocks approached a correction threshold with a three-day losing streak, while US and European futures indicated a weak opening.On the energy side, however, the picture completely reversed. Brent oil prices rose to $113 per barrel, showing an increase of over 70% since the beginning of the year. Goldman Sachs described these developments as "one of the biggest supply shocks in history for global oil markets," and revised its year-end oil forecasts upwards. Rising energy prices, strengthening inflationary pressures, have also led to expectations that central banks may move away from interest rate cuts. This has caused bond yields to rise.What's the latest on Bitcoin and altcoins?While the general trend in the crypto market is negative, Bitcoin's performance has remained relatively strong. Despite losing approximately 6% in value over the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to hold above the $66,000 level. This level stands out as a significant support during all the war-related sell-offs since the end of February. Trading around $68,000 in Asian markets, Bitcoin has shown a slight recovery signal in the last 24 hours. On the altcoin side, a weaker outlook prevails. Ethereum is trading around $2,050, while XRP has fallen to $1.38. While major assets like Solana and Dogecoin experienced sharper weekly losses, Tron was the only major cryptocurrency to show a limited but positive divergence on a weekly basis. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to $2.35 trillion, reflecting a decline in investor risk appetite. Analysts note that current price movements stem not only from short-term market dynamics but also from deeper structural changes. In particular, the recent increase in gold reserves by some countries, especially China, created a significant shift in market direction. However, the escalation of conflict and the resulting need for liquidity reversed this buying trend in gold. On the other hand, the relatively strong performance of both Bitcoin's spot price and derivatives markets indicates continued institutional interest. Experts suggest that funding rates and futures markets may increase in the coming weeks, which could strengthen the possibility of an upside surprise in prices. Meanwhile, tensions remain high on the geopolitical front. The harsh statements from the US against Iran and threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz are increasing uncertainty about energy supplies. Iran's threat to close the strait in the event of a possible attack poses serious risks to global trade and energy markets.
The reactivation of long-dormant old wallets in the cryptocurrency market continues to attract attention. Most recently, a Bitcoin wallet untouched for approximately 13 years sparked curiosity by moving 2,100 BTC. A massive move after 13 yearsAccording to on-chain data, the transaction took place on Friday. Approximately 2,100 BTC, worth about $147.7 million, was involved in a new transaction around 13:00 Turkish time. According to blockchain analysis platforms, this transfer occurred by combining multiple UTXOs under a single output. While the majority of the transaction remains at the same "1NB3Z" address, a small amount appears to have been sent to a different address. This suggests a possible technical adjustment to take advantage of lower transaction fees. The history of this wallet is quite remarkable. It was first sent on July 4, 2012, during Bitcoin's early days, with a total of 2,100 BTC. At the time, the total value of these assets was only $13,685. Today, the same amount of Bitcoin is worth approximately $147 million, indicating a more than 10,000-fold increase in value. It's noteworthy that the funds haven't yet been moved to another address, and there's no information about the wallet owner's identity or the purpose of the transfer. On-chain analytics platforms indicate that the address is untagged, making it unclear whether it belongs to an institutional or individual investor. Technically, this wallet appears to be an older generation Bitcoin address. Addresses starting with "1" belong to the oldest address format known as Pay-to-PubKey-Hash (P2PKH). Later, P2SH addresses starting with "3", SegWit addresses starting with "bc1q", and the most current format, Taproot addresses starting with "bc1p", were introduced. Despite this, the wallet owner's preference to keep their assets in the old format is noteworthy. Recently, there has been an increase in wallet activity belonging to early-stage Bitcoin investors. This activity seems to have accelerated, particularly following Bitcoin's projected peak of around $126,000 in 2025. Last year, Galaxy Digital released 80,000 BTC that had been inactive for 14 years as part of a client's asset planning, a sale valued at over $9 billion at the time. Similarly, in September, another early-stage investor reportedly converted a significant portion of their Bitcoin holdings into Ethereum, resulting in a rotation worth billions of dollars. More recently, an investor who had accumulated 5,000 BTC approximately 13 years ago resumed selling, divesting 1,000 BTC. Around the same time, early-stage investor Owen Gunden reportedly made hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin sales.
Cryptocurrency markets are preparing for short-term fluctuations today as approximately $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire. The market's delicate balance, particularly due to increased selling pressure and ETF outflows in recent days, makes this expiration date even more critical. Bitcoin still holds the largest share in the options market. Approximately $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options, equivalent to 23,000 contracts, are expected to expire today. According to data, the put-call ratio is at 0.96, indicating that there is no expectation of a strong direction in the market, but rather a balanced but cautious outlook.Critical levels stand out as options expiration approachesAt this point, the most important level closely watched by investors is the $70,000 band, known as the "max pain." This level is known as the price point where a large portion of option contracts incur losses, and historically, prices tend to move towards this level on expiration dates. Indeed, Bitcoin recently attempted to break above the $75,000 level but failed to hold, retreating to around $70,500. This indicates that this region is acting as strong support. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that downward expectations have not completely disappeared from the market. The concentration of short positions, particularly around the $60,000 level, suggests that some investors are still pricing in the possibility of a deeper correction. Additionally, the outflow of $253.7 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last two days points to a cautious short-term stance among institutional investors. A similar picture emerges on the Ethereum front. Approximately $370 million worth of ETH options, equivalent to 176,000 contracts, expire today. The put-call ratio in Ethereum is at 1.04, indicating a more pronounced downward expectation compared to Bitcoin. The critical threshold for Ethereum is the "max pain" point at $2,150. This level, like Bitcoin, is expected to create a short-term pull on the price. The recent weakness in ETH's price increases the likelihood of this level being tested.Option expiry dates often cause short-term sharp movements in the market. Last week, following a similar expiry, Bitcoin rose by approximately 8%, and Ethereum by around 10%. However, the fact that the total option size has decreased from $2.4 billion to $2.1 billion this week suggests that the potential impact may be somewhat more limited.Despite this, market players remain cautious. According to Polymarket, a prediction platform, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 by the end of March 2026 is priced at 38%. This shows that investors are still not completely ignoring the downside risks. In short, today's option expiry could play a critical role in determining the direction of the cryptocurrency markets. Specifically, the $70,000 level for Bitcoin and the $2,150 level for Ethereum appear to be central to price movements throughout the day. Investors are closely watching whether these levels can be maintained.
Morgan Stanley, one of the leading investment banks in the US, has taken its moves towards the crypto asset market a step further. The company has submitted a second updated S-1 registration form to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of its spot Bitcoin ETF application. This development once again demonstrates the increasing institutionalization of Wall Street's interest in digital assets. Morgan Stanley Makes Progress in Bitcoin ETF ProcessAccording to the latest application, the fund, to be created under the name "Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust," is planned to be traded on the NYSE Arca exchange under the code "MSBT" if approved. More details about the fund's structure were also shared in the updated file. Accordingly, the ETF's creation unit will consist of 10,000 shares, and it will initially enter the market with a "seed" basket of 50,000 shares. In this initial phase, it aims to reach a size of approximately $1 million.Morgan Stanley also announced that, as part of transparency, it purchased two shares of the ETF for audit purposes on March 9th. These types of transactions indicate that the fund's operational readiness process is progressing.The fund has significant business partners on the custody and operational side. Accordingly, BNY Mellon will be responsible for cash custody, management, and transfer transactions. Coinbase will act as the prime broker for Bitcoin assets and will hold the digital assets in cold wallets.Approval is not certain, but institutional interest is increasingThis second update to the S-1 application shows that the process is progressing, but it does not mean final approval. However, if approved, Morgan Stanley could become the first major US bank to directly issue a spot Bitcoin ETF. This could indicate that the integration between traditional finance and the crypto market has entered a new phase.On the other hand, it is known that the company also applied for a spot Solana ETF in January along with its Bitcoin ETF application. However, the lack of a new update on the Solana side indicates that the Bitcoin product is progressing faster.Amy Oldenburg, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Morgan Stanley, recently emphasized that the adoption process of crypto ETFs is still in its early stages. According to Oldenburg, approximately 80% of current demand comes from platforms where individual investors trade independently. This indicates that crypto assets still have a limited presence in portfolios managed by financial advisors.Billions of dollars in the ETF marketSpot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted strong capital inflows since their approval in the US in 2024. Total inflows exceeding $56 billion reveal the adoption of these products by investors. In particular, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC funds hold the largest share of the market.While some outflows may be seen in the short term, the long-term picture indicates that institutional demand continues. Indeed, since ETFs require direct Bitcoin purchases, they can reduce the supply in the market, creating upward pressure on the price.Considering that Morgan Stanley manages approximately $1.8 trillion in assets, the impact of a potential ETF approval could be even more remarkable. Even if the company allocated only 1% of its portfolios to Bitcoin, it would theoretically mean billions of dollars in new demand. Regulatory clarity could accelerate the processThe recent move in the US to deem a significant portion of crypto assets as securities has removed one of the biggest obstacles for institutional investors. According to experts, this development could help banks and asset managers gain easier access to crypto products.Morgan Stanley's progress on its ETF application is also seen as part of this transformation. The SEC's decision in the coming period will be decisive not only for this fund but also for the direction of institutional crypto investments in general.
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs traded in the US experienced a sharp reversal after a strong inflow streak in recent days. According to data released on Wednesday, a total net outflow of $219.2 million occurred from funds covering both asset classes. This marks the first time both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recorded simultaneous negative outflows after consecutive days of inflows.The inflow streak in Bitcoin and Ethereum funds has endedLooking at the data, it is seen that the majority of outflows came from Bitcoin ETFs. A total net outflow of $163.5 million was recorded in spot Bitcoin funds, while this figure was $55.7 million for Ethereum. This pullback, particularly in Bitcoin ETFs, signals the end of the strong inflow trend that lasted for seven trading days. For Ethereum funds, this is the first net outflow seen since March 9th. Looking at the funds individually, the largest outflow occurred in Fidelity's FBTC product. A single day saw outflows of $103.8 million from the fund in question, marking the second-largest daily outflow in March. Grayscale's GBTC fund experienced outflows of $18.8 million, while Bitwise's BITB product recorded a net outflow of $7 million. Other Bitcoin ETFs showed no significant inflows or outflows throughout the day. A notable development also occurred with BlackRock IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF. After eight days of uninterrupted inflows, the fund recorded its first negative outflow, with a net outflow of $33.9 million. In contrast, IBIT had attracted over $900 million in inflows over the previous seven trading days, recording a net inflow of $169.3 million on March 17th alone. Therefore, this latest outflow is interpreted as a signal of a shift in short-term investor behavior. A similar picture emerged in Ethereum ETFs. The majority of the total outflow of $55.7 million came from Fidelity's FETH fund. FETH alone saw a net outflow of $37.1 million. Grayscale's ETHE product experienced a loss of $8.9 million, while Bitwise's ETHW fund saw outflows of $4.7 million and VanEck's ETHV fund saw outflows of $4.8 million. BlackRock's ETHA fund recorded a limited outflow of $1.3 million, while the company's new staking-focused product, ETHB, achieved a small positive inflow. This weakness in the ETF market coincided with a pullback in the overall crypto market. The Bitcoin price fell below the $70,000 level, trading around $69,700. According to data from the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's value has decreased by more than 4%. This decline is considered to be influenced by a decrease in risk appetite among ETF investors, as well as short-term profit-taking.
FTX, which made headlines in crypto history with its bankruptcy proceedings, is entering a new phase in its repayment plan for creditors. The FTX Recovery Trust, which manages the company's bankruptcy proceedings, plans to disburse a total of $2.2 billion in a new distribution round starting at the end of March.Eyes on March 31stAccording to the announcement, payments will begin on March 31st, and eligible creditors will receive their funds within 1 to 3 business days. Distributions will be made through service providers such as BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer. However, users must complete identity verification (KYC) processes, submit necessary tax documents, and register with their chosen payment provider to receive these payments.This new payment round will be the fourth major distribution the company has ever undertaken. Since the beginning of the bankruptcy process, over $6 billion has been repaid in total. The latest planned $2.2 billion distribution will contribute significantly to compensating many creditors for their losses.Creditors are categorized into different classes under the repayment plan. The group referred to as the "convenience class" generally includes individual investors and smaller creditors. A significant portion of users in this group are expected to receive repayments of up to 120% of their asset value at the time of the 2022 crash. This rate presents a rare scenario in bankruptcy proceedings.There are also notable increases in the "non-convenience" classes, which cover larger and more complex claims. For example, the repayment rate for the Class 5A group, which includes international users, has been increased to 96%. In the Class 5B group, which includes US users, the repayment rate has reached 100%. Similarly, the Class 6A and 6B groups, which cover general unsecured claims and digital asset loans, have also been brought to the 100% repayment level.FTX management emphasizes that with this distribution plan, many creditors will be considered "fully satisfied." This is seen as a significant sign of recovery after the FTX crash, which created a long period of uncertainty in the crypto sector. On the other hand, one of the most controversial aspects of the process is that repayments are made in US dollars rather than directly in crypto assets. Some users argue that this method is unfair, especially since the price of assets like Bitcoin has increased significantly since the crash. Right now, around $70,000. As a reminder, the price of Bitcoin fell to around $15,700 when FTX filed for bankruptcy. Today, prices are at much higher levels, leading to criticism that some investors have missed opportunities. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried continues to criticize the bankruptcy process in statements made from prison. Bankman-Fried claims that the company did not actually have to go bankrupt and that mismanagement decisions triggered this process. In addition, the high fees paid to consultants during the bankruptcy process and the low valuations of some asset sales continue to be a subject of debate.
A cautious wait prevails in global markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's (FED) critical interest rate decision. The decision, to be announced on Wednesday, March 18th, is expected to be released at 9:00 PM Turkish time (GMT+3), with FED Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 9:30 PM GMT+3. While markets are pricing in the almost certain scenario of keeping interest rates unchanged, the main focus is on forward-looking messages and projections. Current expectations suggest the FED will keep its policy rate stable between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East, leading to rising energy prices and increased inflation expectations, have heightened sensitivity to the decision text and Powell's tone. According to experts, a "hawkish" stance by the FED, meaning a reluctance to cut interest rates, could put pressure on risky assets. Conversely, an emphasis on inflation being temporary could trigger relief and upward movement in the markets. The scenarios in the markets are quite clearly defined. If projections for the policy interest rate point below 3.75%, this could strengthen expectations of an early rate cut and increase risk appetite, leading to a sharp rise in the markets. While a more limited reaction is expected if the rate remains at this level, a projection above 3.75% could increase selling pressure, particularly in the crypto and stock markets.Bitcoin's current situationBitcoin's performance before this critical decision is also noteworthy. The leading cryptocurrency has managed to stay above $70,000, moving in a horizontal band around $71,000. Analysts note that the price being stuck in a narrow range in recent days indicates that the market is waiting for macroeconomic developments to determine its direction. It is stated that the $75,000 level has become a strong resistance, and the difficulty in overcoming this level reveals the market's indecisive nature. Although institutional demand and ETF inflows continue to support Bitcoin, macroeconomic uncertainties are limiting this rise. According to QCP Capital analysts, Bitcoin is struggling to generate new momentum despite maintaining the price range established after the recent surge. They emphasize that market dynamics are increasingly dependent on macroeconomic factors rather than crypto-specific developments.On the other hand, on-chain data is also generating noteworthy signals. On March 18th, approximately $2.2 billion worth of USDT flowed into Binance. This was the largest single-day stablecoin inflow since November 2025. This increase in liquidity could act as a buffer to limit potential declines. However, some analysts believe this rise is largely due to speculative positioning and may not signify a sustained increase in demand.Increased positions in the futures market also raise the risk of volatility. Weakening whale activity and fluctuating ETF flows raise questions about the sustainability of the current rally.
February Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the US signaled a stronger-than-expected inflation trend, increasing volatility in risky assets. The higher-than-expected figures, in particular, triggered short-term selling pressure in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency sector. According to the data, the US PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in February. This significantly exceeded the market expectation of 0.3% and indicated an acceleration compared to the previous month's 0.5% increase. On an annual basis, the PPI rose to 3.4%, surpassing the 2.9% expectation. This picture reveals that the increase in production costs remains strong and inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.A similar picture was observed in the core PPI. The monthly core data rose 0.5%, exceeding the expectation of 0.3%, while the annual rate reached 3.9%, surpassing market forecasts. The upward trend in previous data indicates that cost-driven inflation remains resilient in the US economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an inflation indicator that measures price changes in goods and services during the production phase; that is, it shows what happens on the cost side before products reach the consumer. This data is seen as a leading signal for future consumer inflation (CPI) because as production costs increase, this increase is often reflected in final prices. Therefore, a PPI above expectations increases concerns that inflation may be persistent and may lead central banks to postpone interest rate cuts. From a market perspective, high PPI data generally puts pressure on risky assets because it strengthens expectations of tighter monetary policy, which can lead to sell-offs in assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.How did the markets react?Markets, which followed a calmer course before the data release, saw sharp price movements after the announcement. Gold fell by 2.3% after the data, dropping below the $4,900 level to around $4,891. This movement is attributed to strong inflation data raising interest rate expectations and increasing demand for the dollar. A similar reaction was observed in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, in particular, exhibited a more sideways trend before the data release, but experienced a sharp downward break after the PPI exceeded expectations. As seen in the chart below, the price quickly retreated and selling pressure intensified. This short-term reaction from Bitcoin indicates that investors are repricing their expectations regarding interest rate policies. Higher-than-expected inflation data strengthens the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may postpone its easing measures. This situation can trigger sell-offs in risky assets, causing short-term investors to reduce their positions.
