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The cryptocurrency market started the new week cautiously. Total market capitalization fell by approximately 0.5% to $2.59 trillion, while Bitcoin stabilized around $77,600. However, it is believed that the real decisive move has yet to come; markets are now focused on the intense flow of macroeconomic data from the US. The next few days present a structure quite different from a classic data week. On April 29th, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and subsequent press conference will give the market its first directional signal. However, the real critical point will be the growth (GDP) data and especially the PCE inflation data, which the Fed closely monitors, to be released the following morning.This tight schedule presents investors with a two-stage test. First, the Fed's approach to interest rates, inflation, and the economic outlook will be priced in; then, the incoming data will either support or completely change this narrative.The market narrative could change quicklyNormally, Fed weeks give markets time to digest new expectations. This time, the process will be completed in approximately 48 hours. This means sharper price movements, especially for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.For Bitcoin investors, Fed policy remains a critical reference point. Interest rates determine liquidity, and liquidity determines risk appetite. Expectations of a looser monetary policy generally create a positive environment for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, a "longer period of high interest rates" scenario puts pressure on risky assets.This week's GDP data will show how strong the economy was in the first quarter of the year. Strong growth means the Fed can maintain its tight stance, while weak data could highlight concerns about an economic slowdown.PCE inflation also has a separate weight in the equation. A higher-than-expected inflation figure would postpone expectations of interest rate cuts, while a lower reading could provide relief to the market.Scenarios for Bitcoin are becoming clearerThis data flow highlights several key scenarios for Bitcoin. The most favorable combination for the markets is a dovish tone from the Fed followed by weak economic data. In this case, investors may more strongly embrace the idea that interest rate cuts are possible later in the year. However, it is also necessary to mention the risky scenario. If relatively soft messages come from the Fed while inflation remains high, it could lead to a rapid repricing in the market. In this case, Bitcoin could come under pressure not only due to its own dynamics but also due to broader risk market factors.A more cautious Fed and strong macroeconomic data, on the other hand, could reinforce the narrative that "high interest rates will continue for a long time." This scenario is one of the most challenging combinations for Bitcoin in the short term.Conversely, a cautious Fed message accompanied by weak economic data could create a mixed picture in the markets. In this case, investors may price in interest rate cuts while simultaneously showing risk aversion due to growth concerns.In recent weeks, strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional demand continue to support the market. Indeed, in April, net inflows were seen in ETFs for eight consecutive days, with total inflows exceeding $2.4 billion.
Institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has accelerated again. According to data from April 23rd, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding $223 million on a daily basis, maintaining a positive flow for the eighth consecutive day. Total inflows exceeding $2 billion over the past eight days suggest that institutional investors are viewing the post-2025 correction period as an accumulation opportunity. According to SoSoValue data, BlackRock's IBIT fund saw the largest share of inflows that day, totaling $167.5 million. Positive flows were also seen in Ark Invest/21Shares, Morgan Stanley, and Grayscale. On the other hand, Fidelity, Bitwise, and VanEck's Bitcoin funds experienced outflows totaling approximately $30 million. Source: The Block The picture is weaker for Ethereum. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $76 million on the same day, following a ten-day streak of uninterrupted inflows. The sudden shift in direction of ETH ETFs, which saw inflows of over $96 million on the previous trading day, suggests that the market is giving more weight to Bitcoin in the short term.Institutional demand is strengthening, Bitcoin is taking center stageMarket experts state that ETF flows now reflect a more structural demand rather than short-term speculative movements. According to Bitrue Research Leader Andri Fauzan Adziima, institutional investors are now positioning Bitcoin not just as a trading instrument, but as a stabilizing element in portfolios. This approach, combined with continuous buying through ETFs, especially during a period when supply has tightened after the halving, is creating a lasting demand base in the market.The Bitcoin price has risen by approximately 10% in the last 30 days and is currently stabilizing around $78,000. However, this level is still well below the peak of approximately $126,000 seen in October 2025. Nevertheless, the fact that Bitcoin dominance has risen above 60% indicates that the market is becoming increasingly BTC-weighted. In this period where altcoins are generally performing poorly, the flow of capital into Bitcoin is noteworthy. According to experts, if ETF inflows continue at this pace, the $85,000 to $90,000 range could emerge as the "base scenario" for Bitcoin. However, the possibility of a retest of the $74,000 to $70,000 range in the event of a slowdown in flows is not being ignored. On the macro side, geopolitical developments continue to be decisive for the markets. While US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely supports risk appetite in the short term, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved. This situation reveals that the crypto market is still sensitive to macroeconomic issues. On the other hand, the approximately $8.6 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry that took place on April 24 is also being closely watched in terms of short-term volatility.
One of the most critical days of the month in the crypto derivatives markets has passed. Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts, totaling approximately $9.8 billion, expired on April 24th, with prices closing above their "max pain" levels. This indicates that the overall market trend remains upward, while the decrease in volatility has led to a more cautious interpretation of the rally's nature. According to the data, expiry transactions covered approximately 109,000 Bitcoin contracts, reaching a total nominal value of $8.55 billion. On the Ethereum side, 563,000 contracts stood out, corresponding to approximately $1.32 billion. This was recorded as the highest options closing price of April. The "max pain" level, frequently referenced in the options market, is known as the price point where investors suffer the greatest possible losses. While Bitcoin was trading around $72,000, the spot price at expiry was noteworthy at approximately $77,900. This difference indicated that the market was exhibiting strength beyond expectations. A similar picture emerged for Ethereum. With its maximum price around $2,200, the ETH price traded at approximately $2,315.The put/call ratio in the options data also provided important signals regarding market sentiment. While this ratio showed a balanced appearance at 0.93 for Bitcoin, it remained at 0.72 for Ethereum, indicating a stronger bullish outlook. The significant prominence of call options, particularly on the Ethereum side, clearly revealed investors' expectations of a price increase.The open position distribution also supported this trend. While call and put contracts were quite close in Bitcoin, the call side showed a clear dominance in Ethereum. This suggests that there is a broader market optimism, rather than just short-term speculation. Market remains strong, volatility declinesOn the other hand, the decrease in implied volatility despite the rise in prices offered an important clue about the character of the market. According to analysts, volatility in Bitcoin options fell below 40%, while in Ethereum it dropped to around 60%. While volatility is normally expected to increase with price increases, the opposite picture emerged this time.This divergence shows that the current rise is supported by a more balanced capital flow rather than a sudden and speculative movement. In other words, there is a more controlled and institutionally focused entry into the market rather than aggressive leverage use. This is read as a signal that the rally may be more sustainable.In the coming period, eyes are turned to the new expiry dates. Approximately 12% of the existing open positions will expire at the end of May. The real critical threshold will be the quarterly closing at the end of June. It is expected that approximately 24% of the total positions will be resolved during this period. Analysts believe that the June expiry date will be more decisive in terms of market direction. If macroeconomic pressures ease towards the middle of the year, levels around $78,000 could become a strong support area for Bitcoin. However, if the current downward trend in volatility reverses, sharper price fluctuations may occur.
Pantera Capital, a prominent investment fund in the crypto asset management field, has increased pressure on Satsuma Technology, which is traded on the London Stock Exchange. The fund is demanding that the company sell its remaining approximately $50 million worth of Bitcoin assets and distribute the proceeds directly to shareholders. This call has brought the company's controversial Bitcoin strategy back into the spotlight. Bitcoin strategy shaken by investor pressurePantera Capital's demand is not just an investment opinion; it points directly to a corporate governance debate. The fund, which manages approximately $3.8 billion in assets, is known to hold around 7 percent of the company's shares. This indicates that the call represents a strong shareholder intervention rather than a mere criticism.Satsuma Technology management confirmed that some shareholders "demanded the return of capital," and stated that different options for how to meet these demands are being evaluated. The company's board of directors states that they are trying to find a solution that takes into account the interests of all shareholders. However, the current situation reveals a clear disagreement between investors and management. This process has become even clearer with a formal shareholder initiative. The request submitted to the company mandated that the role of Bitcoin assets on the balance sheet be discussed at the general assembly. Thus, the issue became an agenda item for all shareholders to decide on, not just at the management level.How did the $221 million strategy collapse?In August 2024, Satsuma Technology came to the forefront with a rather ambitious plan. The company announced that it had raised approximately $221 million to implement an "AI-powered Bitcoin treasury strategy." This strategy aimed to offer investors indirect crypto exposure by using Bitcoin as a balance sheet asset. However, market conditions developed against this plan. Bitcoin's value dropping by approximately 40% after rising above $126,000 severely disrupted the company's financial balance. In particular, the fact that purchases made with borrowed funds occurred near peak levels further increased the risks. Following these developments, the company's shares experienced a sharp decline. The share price, which has lost more than 99% of its value compared to its peak in June 2025, has fallen to levels as low as $0.21. The company's market capitalization has also dropped to approximately $25 million. This situation reveals that investor confidence in the strategy has weakened considerably. Management crisis and increasing tensionThe tension within the company is actually not new. In December 2024, Satsuma's sale of approximately half of its Bitcoin holdings drew criticism from some investors. The purpose of this sale was to repay investors who had not converted their debts into shares. However, this move was considered a strategic mistake, especially by large shareholders.Significant changes also occurred in the company's management during this process. As of March 2025, CEO Henry Elder and CFO Andrew Smith resigned from their positions. This change in the management team was interpreted as one of the concrete results of investor pressure.Today, the pressure has increased again. Some shareholders, primarily Pantera Capital, want the remaining Bitcoin holdings to be sold to limit the losses before they grow further. Possible scenarios: Dividend, share buyback, or liquidationIf the company complies with shareholder demands, several different paths can be taken. The most likely options include a special dividend distribution, a share buyback program, or a capital distribution tied to the complete closure of the crypto asset position. Pantera's main argument is clear: Investors who want to invest in Bitcoin can do so directly. Indirect exposure through a company's balance sheet can create unnecessary institutional risk and value discounting.
Tesla announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. While revenue slightly fell short of Wall Street expectations, profitability exceeded analyst estimates. Weakness in the cryptocurrency and energy segments was the most significant negative factor. Total revenue increased 16% year-over-year to $22.39 billion in the first quarter, falling short of the market's expectation of $22.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share exceeded the consensus estimate of 37 cents, reaching 41 cents. Tesla shares rose more than 3% in post-earnings trading. The automotive segment continued to grow. Vehicle sales revenue increased 16% year-over-year to $16.2 billion. However, energy production and storage revenue decreased by 12% to $2.41 billion. Net profit rose to $477 million, compared to $409 million in the same period of the previous year. Declining costs per vehicle and rising average selling prices supported profitability. The automotive gross margin reached 19.2%, exceeding all quarters of the previous year.The overall performance in the stock market lagged considerably behind the positive balance sheet picture. Tesla shares have lost approximately 14% of their value since the beginning of 2026, placing it among the weakest performing major technology companies. Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia performed better during the same period.Bitcoin recorded a $173 million loss in valueThere was no significant movement in the cryptocurrency market. Tesla held onto its 11,509 BTC in the first quarter, making no purchases or sales. However, the decline in Bitcoin prices was reflected in the balance sheet: The company recorded a post-tax loss of $173 million for its digital assets. The drop in Bitcoin's price from around $90,000 at the beginning of the year to around $68,000 at the end of the quarter is a direct cause of this loss. The total value of digital assets carried on the balance sheet also decreased from approximately $1 billion in the last quarter of 2025 to $786 million. On the product side, Tesla announced the release of more affordable versions of the Model Y and Model 3. This move aims to protect its market share, especially in an environment where BYD and Xiaomi are challenging the market with competitive pricing.Long-term investments continued unabated. Capital expenditures increased by 67 percent year-on-year to $2.49 billion. The company stated that it increased spending on autonomous driving technologies and the Optimus humanoid robot project. Tesla announced that it will begin preparations for a large-scale Optimus production facility in the second quarter of 2026, and that the first-generation production line is planned to reach an annual capacity of 1 million robots.
GSR has launched its first ETF on Nasdaq. Known as a long-standing market maker in the cryptocurrency market, the company is entering the investment products space with this fund, named GSR Crypto Core3. The fund will trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "BESO" and will invest simultaneously in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.The difference from classic spot ETFs is that Core3 will offer a share not only of price fluctuations but also of staking returns for eligible assets. Investors can earn passive income while waiting for their assets to appreciate in value. The fund is actively managed and rebalanced weekly. The management fee is 1% annually.GSR claims that Core3 is the first actively managed multi-asset ETF in the US to offer staking access. They may be right in this claim, as the SEC has long been wary of staking mechanisms and multi-asset structures. This was partly due to regulatory uncertainty and partly due to a lack of clarity on how such complex structures should be assessed in terms of investor protection. Until spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved in 2024, the path was effectively closed for such products. Core3 will be one of the products to test whether the regulatory environment has truly changed.Since then, the sector has changed rapidly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted billions of dollars in inflows shortly after their approval. BlackRock's Bitcoin and Ethereum funds became the most prominent examples in the category in terms of both trading volume and size. Grayscale and Hashdex also launched products covering multiple digital assets. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs became more visible in the crypto ETF space. A new ecosystem has emerged. But regulatory hesitancy towards multi-asset strategies has not completely disappeared; this area is still partly ambiguous. GSR's growth effortsOn the GSR front, this step is part of the direction the company has recently taken. Known for many years only for its market making, GSR is now expanding into asset management and token advisory. In March, it acquired Autonomous and Architech; both companies operate in the token advisory field. In addition, by investing in Libeara, a tokenization platform backed by SC Ventures, it has positioned itself in the field of digitizing real-world assets. Core3 fits into this picture; a model where liquidity and pricing information gained from market making are transferred to asset management. Andy Baehr, responsible for the product, says Core3 is designed to answer three practical questions: what to invest in, how to generate returns while holding, and how to position oneself against market fluctuations. CEO Xin Song puts the approach in a broader context; he states that the ETF strategy is built on a deep understanding of the evolution of the crypto asset class.
The cryptocurrency market regained upward momentum in the middle of the week. With Bitcoin surpassing the $78,000 level, a limited but significant recovery was observed in both major crypto assets and the overall market capitalization. Data shows that Bitcoin gained over 2% in the last 24 hours, trading around $78,000, while Ethereum similarly rose over 2.5%, surpassing the $2,300 mark. A rise of over 2% is also noticeable in the total crypto market.Truce extended, risk appetite returnsThe cryptocurrency market turned upward again in the middle of the week. Bitcoin gained approximately 2% in the last 24 hours, trading around $78,000; Ethereum rose over 2.5%, surpassing $2,300. A rise of over 2% is also seen in the total market capitalization. No single factor is enough to explain the rise. Capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are significant: Funds have recorded uninterrupted net inflows for three weeks, drawing in a total of approximately $1.8 billion. As institutional buying continues, it becomes easier to absorb downward pressure.The short squeeze factorThere is also a short squeeze component. Funding rates are still negative, meaning that short positions continue to accumulate in the market. With the increase in the amount of open positions, this structure provides fertile ground for new squeeze waves.A short squeeze is a chain reaction of buying that occurs when investors holding short positions in the market are forced to close their positions to cut their losses in the face of rising prices. Opening a short position simply means: you borrow an asset, sell it, buy it back when the price falls, and pocket the difference as profit. But if the price doesn't fall as expected and rises, your debt starts to grow. It becomes necessary to close the position, i.e., buy back the asset, before the loss becomes unbearable. These purchases push the price even higher; the price pushing it upwards puts other short position holders under the same closing pressure. The cycle feeds itself. In the case of Bitcoin, this is the current situation: funding rates are negative, meaning those holding short positions in the futures market pay more fees than those holding long positions. This indicates that pressure on the short side is still high. When the price breaks upwards, these positions become squeezed and have to close; each closing signals a new purchase, and each purchase signals a new price increase. This mechanism is one of the main reasons why short-term rallies are so sharp and fast. Trump's statementsOn the macro front, Trump announced he would extend the ceasefire, giving time for negotiations. Iran also stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open. These are not permanent solutions, but they were sufficient for short-term relief. They boosted both the crypto market and US stocks.There is also a noticeable movement in sentiment indicators. The Fear & Greed Index, which fell to 8 at the beginning of April, is now at 33. It is still in the "fear" zone; panic has subsided, but confidence has not yet returned. A significant portion of retail investors are still hesitant about the rise; According to some analysts, this situation actually supports the rise, because purchases in a low-expectation environment push prices up faster. Experts believe that technically, the $78,000 to $83,000 range is crucial. If this region cannot be maintained, the picture will change. For a broader bull run, in addition to price movement, improved liquidity and the participation of altcoins in the rise are needed. For now, not all of these conditions have been met.
Strategy is creating a unique category in the market with its approach that positions Bitcoin not as an investment vehicle, but as the backbone of the company. This strategy, shaped under the leadership of Michael Saylor, seizes every opportunity for new purchases, rather than selling during price dips. According to today's announcements, the same scenario unfolded last week: Strategy was on the buying table while Bitcoin was trading in the $74,000-$76,000 range.Strategy bought 34,000 BitcoinStrategy bought 34,164 BTC in the week of April 13-19. The amount spent was $2.54 billion, with an average purchase price of $74,395. This is the largest weekly purchase since November 2024. Total Bitcoin holdings reached 815,061 BTC. Total cost was $61.6 billion, with a current market capitalization of approximately $61.2 billion. The company is currently operating at a loss of approximately $400 million. Saylor has long ignored such short-term deviations; the strategy plays on Bitcoin's supply, not its daily price. Indeed, the average price of $74,395 during the week the purchases were made is quite close to Bitcoin's current level of $74,985; the company's position has not yet turned profitable, but it is close to the threshold.815,000 BTC represents 3.8% of Bitcoin's total supply. A single institutional player holding such a large share directly affects the market's supply-demand balance. Controlling a position of this scale elevates Strategy to a different category than an ordinary institutional investor.The financing for the purchases comes from share sales. MSTR shares and the STRC perpetual preferred stock program are two prominent instruments. Last week, the company raised $2.1 billion solely through STRC. The approximately 11.5% annual yield offered by STRC is a key factor in attracting investors. There is also a change in the dividend structure: a shift from monthly payments to bi-weekly payments is planned. The company anticipates that this step will increase liquidity, contribute to price stability, and offer investors a more flexible structure. The decision will be finalized at the general assembly on June 8th.42/42 planThe growth plan is also ongoing. Under the strategy known as "42/42," the goal is to raise a total of $84 billion by 2027, with a large portion of this fund being directed towards direct Bitcoin purchases. The company also has the capacity to sell billions of additional shares, along with expanding existing ATM programs.The Bitcoin price fluctuated between $73,854 and $76,165 this week. BTC recorded a 5.92% increase on a weekly basis and a 6% increase in its 30-day performance. Currently trading around $74,985, the price is just above Strategy's average purchase cost. Although the share price has fallen sharply from its 2025 peaks, it has gained over 27% in value in the last week. During the same period, Bitcoin increased by 9%.
CoinShares regularly publishes reports tracking weekly fund flows into crypto asset investment products. According to the company's latest data, the market recorded its strongest weekly performance since January. Following a third consecutive positive week, the question of whether this is a trend or a temporary recovery is increasingly being discussed.$1.4 billion inflowCrypto asset funds saw $1.4 billion in inflows last week. This marks the third consecutive positive week and the strongest performance since January. According to the report, two things triggered this: US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and Bitcoin surpassing $76,000. BTC had been stuck at horizontal levels for two months after the February drop; breaking these levels attracted position taking. Total assets under management rose to $155 billion, with the weekly inflow/AuM (total assets under management) ratio at its highest level of the year at 0.91 percent. In terms of regional distribution, the US alone drove almost all of the inflow with $1.49 billion. Germany was up $28 million. Switzerland stands apart with a $137.8 million outflow. Europe isn't the only block.Bitcoin funds have withdrawn $1.115 billion, bringing the total to $3.07 billion since the beginning of the year. There's only a $1.4 million inflow on the short-Bitcoin side; very few want to bet down.The picture is more interesting for Ethereum. The weekly inflow of $328 million is the highest since January, and I don't think that's a coincidence. ETH has been in Bitcoin's shadow throughout the year, with investors largely ignoring it for a long time. This week's inflow shows that at least some money is starting to look at Ethereum again. The total figure reaching $197 million year-to-date also supports this turnaround; the starting point was low, but the direction seems to have changed. The altcoin side is more mixed, each asset has a different story. XRP experienced a weekly outflow of $56.2 million, and a negative monthly outlook. Despite this, it remains up $122 million year-to-date; meaning the long-term conservative group is still there, while short-term money is fleeing. Solana is showing a similar divergence: despite a small weekly outflow of $2.3 million, the year-to-date total is up $216 million. Chainlink saw inflows of $5.3 million, Sui $2.2 million, and the "other" category $4.8 million; small numbers but the direction is positive. Among providers, iShares led by a wide margin with $1.04 billion. Bitwise added $122 million, and ARK 21Shares added $106 million. CoinShares saw outflows of $113 million. On the macro front, March CPI came in at 3.3%, and core at 2.6%. The market did not interpret this as a problem, which opened up room for upward movement.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East shaped the direction of global markets on the first day of the week. The recent increase in military tensions between Iran and the US has led to sharp movements, particularly in energy prices, and the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, is also affected by these developments. However, looking at price movements, it is noteworthy that crypto assets have shown a more limited reaction compared to traditional markets. The development that ignited the tension was the US Navy's intervention against an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US side claimed that the ship violated the blockade and continued to proceed despite warnings. It was then announced that the USS Spruance destroyer targeted the ship's engine room, stopping it, and that US soldiers boarded the ship and took control. While Washington considered this action as "enforcing the blockade," the Tehran administration described the incident as "armed piracy." In response to this intervention, Iran reportedly launched drone attacks against US warships in the Gulf of Oman. Sources close to Iran claimed the attack was a direct retaliation for this incident, raising concerns that the ceasefire had been effectively violated. The possibility of a new conflict, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, led to rapid price fluctuations in global energy markets.Oil prices rose by over 6% during the day, approaching $90 per barrel. Double-digit increases were seen in European natural gas futures. This indicates that the previously declining "war premium" is being repriced. At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the planned talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan further increased market anxiety.Bitcoin remains more resilientDespite the increasing geopolitical risks, Bitcoin's price movement remained relatively limited. Starting the week at around $78,000, BTC fell to $73,775 during the day before stabilizing around $74,000. While the loss in the last 24 hours remained in the 1.5-2% range, it is noteworthy that it is still positive on a weekly basis. Ethereum similarly fell by slightly over 2%, while losses in Solana and other major altcoins remained below 3%. In contrast, it is noteworthy that sharper sell-offs were seen in stock futures. The divergence in the markets is not limited to price movements. The fact that Bitcoin remained relatively flat in an environment where Brent oil rose by over 5%, European stock markets signaled a decline, and the dollar strengthened suggests a possible shift in investor behavior. In particular, the base effect created by spot ETF demand may have contributed to the limited nature of the sharp weekend sell-offs seen in past cycles.Critical levels are being monitoredAnalysts believe that Bitcoin's reaction in the short term, within the $74,000-$73,000 range, will be decisive. Maintaining this band could support the asset's positioning as a "balancing factor" against geopolitical risks. A downward break, however, could indicate that the market is still sensitive to global risk appetite.In the coming period, investors' focus will not only be on developments in the Middle East; Also included are US Treasury yields, the dollar index, and potential Fed interest rate moves. In particular, if rising energy prices push the inflation outlook upward again, the possibility of delayed interest rate cuts could put additional pressure on the crypto market.
The sudden easing of tensions between the US and Iran shook the crypto market. Following the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic, Bitcoin surged to $78,200, its highest level in nearly two and a half months. Although the price retreated slightly from this peak during the day, it managed to hold above the $78,000 mark. This rise wasn't unique to Bitcoin. Ethereum gained over 5% in the last 24 hours, while XRP and Dogecoin also saw similar gains. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $2.7 trillion; the overall picture indicated that investors were beginning to reclaim risk.The Strait opened, markets breathed a sigh of reliefThe announcement that ignited the movement came from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to all merchant ships via designated routes during the ceasefire period. This step alleviated, at least temporarily, one of the biggest fears for global supply chains. US President Donald Trump also confirmed that the strait was "fully open and ready for trade." However, in the same speech, he did not fail to add that the naval blockade against Iran would continue. Therefore, the picture is not entirely clear: the ceasefire is only for 10 days, the blockade is still in effect. Markets were excited but did not abandon caution. The general market atmosphere also supported this optimism. While the S&P 500 approached new highs in US stock markets, Brent and WTI oil prices fell sharply. This decline in energy prices was read as an indication that geopolitical risk was being mitigated in the short term.Highest level since FebruaryFor Bitcoin, this movement is considered a sign of a long-term recovery. The price, which was hovering around $90,000 in February, fell to $60,000 within a few weeks, creating serious demoralization in the market. By the end of April, a significant portion of these losses had been recovered. 21Shares strategist Matt Mena predicts that if the current momentum is maintained, Bitcoin could test the $80-85,000 range in the short term. The possibility of reaching the $80,000 level has also begun to be priced in significantly on the prediction platform Polymarket.But the derivatives markets disagreeDespite all this optimism, data from the derivatives markets paints a more cautious picture. Funding rates and open interest data indicate that investors are not yet fully convinced of the rise. Analysts emphasize that the $78,000 level constitutes a critical resistance zone in the short term, and that strong demand from the spot market is needed for this resistance to be permanently overcome.In short, the market has relaxed, but hasn't completely gotten rid of its anxieties. The fact that the ceasefire is for 10 days, the blockade continues, and the derivatives data appears hesitant suggests that investors are considering both opportunity and risk simultaneously.
The US government this week transferred approximately 8 BTC associated with the 2016 Bitfinex hack to Coinbase Prime. These coins, currently worth around $606,000, originated from the wallets of Ilya Lichtenstein, the mastermind of the hack, according to Arkham, which tracks on-chain data.A transfer to an exchange is often interpreted as a sell signal. But not always. Routine custody changes or wallet management leave the same trace; the meaning changes depending on the context.These coins have a placeLichtenstein stole 119,756 BTC from Bitfinex in 2016. After years of legal proceedings, in 2025 a federal court ruled that these assets should be returned to Bitfinex in kind, rather than liquidated. So the money will not go into the Treasury. Bitfinex plans to use the recovered funds for two purposes: first, to fully recover the Recovery Right Tokens distributed to the hack victims, and then to spend at least eighty percent of the remaining net proceeds to withdraw and burn UNUS SED LEO tokens from the market.The story from eight years agoIn August 2016, Lichtenstein infiltrated Bitfinex systems and took control of 119,756 BTC through more than two thousand fraudulent transactions. At the time, this amount was approximately $72 million. Today's equivalent is $8.9 billion.This was followed by a complex years-long cleanup operation: crypto mixers, dark web exchanges, cross-chain transfers, and gold purchases. In 2022, investigators caught him; at that time, BTC worth $3.6 billion was seized. In 2024, Lichtenstein was sentenced to 60 months in federal prison. Released in January 2026 under the First Step Act, and X shared a post thanking President Trump.Coins in the reserveThe stolen coins are still in government possession before being released. And this is where the picture gets interesting.In March 2025, Trump announced the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with an executive order. According to the White House statement, the reserve is based not on new purchases, but on coins seized through lawsuits. White House official David Sacks emphasized that the reserve would not impose an additional cost on taxpayers.The crypto assets currently held by the US government consist of approximately $24.54 billion worth of BTC, $146 million worth of ETH, and various other tokens. The majority of this portfolio also consists of assets seized from proceeds of crime.The reserve's influence did not remain confined to the US borders. Pakistan, in May 2025, announced it was inspired by the US when it established its own strategic BTC reserve. Arizona and New Hampshire, meanwhile, have laid the groundwork for state-level crypto reserves.
Bitcoin tested $76,000 for the third time in four days. The price briefly surpassed this level on Friday morning, but BTC is currently around $75,440. It still faces a $450 million sell wall; according to CoinGlass data, most of these orders are concentrated in the $75,900-$76,300 range. Some traders are opening short positions at this resistance, while others have placed pre-orders to protect positions that will be liquidated if a breakout occurs. Stocks RiseUS stock markets reached record highs on Thursday. The easing of tensions on the Iranian front following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was reflected in the markets. Crypto had significantly outperformed stocks during the period of escalating conflict. Now the situation has reversed, and BTC is moving in a more measured direction.Futures Market ActivityWhile the price has not yet charted a clear direction, there is some activity in the futures market. Total market capitalization surged 28% to $225.8 billion, with open interest (OI) rising over 1.5% to $126.68 billion. The most notable development: Total liquidations surged 140% to $529 million. Short positions are slightly outpacing long positions, indicating a limited-scale short squeeze dynamic.SOL leads the list in open interest growth. The number of active SOL futures contracts increased by 11% in the last 24 hours, reaching 5.53 billion SOL; the highest figure since March 18th. Dogecoin is also noteworthy: DOGE open interest is at a six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.Rising funding rates and positive OI-weighted CVD (cumulative volume delta: the cumulative sum of the volume difference between buy and sell orders) in SOL indicate that buyers are becoming increasingly aggressive. The picture is mixed in DOGE: CVD is showing buying interest, while slightly negative funding rates remind us that there is still a bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. ADA stands out in the OI-weighted CVD ranking; buying pressure is evident in Cardano.Volatility is falling, the options market is cautiousBitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has fallen to 43.35%, its lowest level in 2.5 months. Ethereum's index, EVIV, is hovering near its recent lows, around 65%. Falling volatility usually paves the way for market calm and an upward trend.In Deribit, however, the options market gives a slightly different feeling. Put options continue to dominate both BTC and ETH options; downward concerns have not yet fully dissipated. The market is preparing for an uptrend, but it is not very willing to put all its money on the table.
Charles Schwab shared details of the Schwab Crypto platform this week. Expected to roll out gradually in the coming weeks, the platform will allow clients to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum through the same account infrastructure they use for stock and bond trading. This move directly pits the company against Robinhood, which, while targeting a relatively young audience, has long offered stock and crypto trading under one roof, and is now adding additional financial services. Given Schwab's position as one of the world's largest brokerage firms with over $11 trillion in client assets, this move is attracting attention in the industry. Schwab Crypto accounts will be linked to existing brokerage accounts but will remain separate. The account will be offered under the Charles Schwab Premier Bank, SSB, which will be responsible for the storage and recording of digital assets. Sub-custody and transaction execution services will be handled by Paxos, an OCC-regulated blockchain infrastructure provider. The transaction fee is set at 0.75% of the dollar value of each trade. For comparison, Robinhood's commission-free trading is still a possibility. Coinbase, on the other hand, applies different rates depending on user tiers. The company positions this pricing among the lowest in the market for crypto trading among major brokerage firms.Customers are interested in cryptocurrenciesSo, is the timing of this decision a coincidence? Not really. Schwab has been openly stating for months that its customers are interested in crypto investing. With the Trump administration's regulatory stance towards the sector becoming more pronounced, traditional financial institutions that had previously been on the sidelines have begun to take action. Schwab is not alone in this respect: Morgan Stanley recently launched a spot Bitcoin ETF, and Goldman Sachs has applied for a Bitcoin income ETF.Schab is actually no stranger to the crypto market. According to company data, Schwab customers currently hold approximately 20% of all spot crypto exchange-traded products. Existing access options on the platform include spot crypto ETPs, crypto futures, options on spot crypto ETPs, and crypto-focused mutual funds. The new platform adds direct spot trading to these.Initially, only Bitcoin and Ethereum will be supported. The company plans to add more cryptocurrencies to the platform in the future and introduce transfer features that will allow deposits and withdrawals, enabling customers to move their digital asset holdings from elsewhere to Schwab.The survey, conducted between July and September 2025, involved 460 crypto investors and potential investors. Participants highlighted three factors when choosing a crypto trading platform: low and transparent pricing, a familiar brand and trust, and the belief that digital assets will be kept safe. The market will show how competitive Schwab is in these three areas. Looking at the shares, they fell 2 percent following the company's quarterly financial results announced on Thursday. The crypto announcement did not offset this decline.
Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, has attracted a net investment of $103 million in six trading days since it opened on April 8. This marks the highest inflow in the bank's history for an ETF in terms of first-week performance. Digital assets head Amy Oldenburg confirmed this to Bloomberg. The figure makes more sense when put into perspective: MSBT has surpassed the inflow rate of WisdomTree's Bitcoin fund in its first week. It's also the cheapest of the current spot Bitcoin ETFs, with an annual fee rate of 0.14%, including BlackRock's IBIT.Background: A decade of waitingThe SEC rejected the first Bitcoin ETF application in 2013. Over the next decade, dozens of applications have been submitted, all suffering the same fate. The reasoning has always been the same: the risk of market manipulation and the lack of adequate oversight mechanisms. In 2021, the door was opened to Bitcoin futures-based ETFs, but approval for a product directly linked to the spot market did not come until BlackRock applied in June 2023.BlackRock's move was symbolic. The world's largest asset manager had taken the matter to the table, and the market took it seriously. Fidelity, Invesco, and ARK Invest lined up. The SEC approved several applications at once in January 2024. In the first few days, the money flowing into IBIT broke record after record. But the real issue is not the price, but the channel. Morgan Stanley's network of financial advisors managing trillions of dollars will now offer MSBT as a priority option for clients to access the crypto market indirectly. These advisors had been recommending BlackRock's fund since August 2024. The priority has changed hands.It should also be noted that MSBT is still a small player. BlackRock's IBIT has reached $53 billion since its launch in January 2024. $103 million is a good start, but the gap between these two figures is long.Goldman and BlackRock are next in lineMorgan Stanley's launch hasn't left competitors inactive. Goldman Sachs filed with the SEC last week for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. This structure, which aims to generate income through options strategies, aims to offer regular cash flow rather than spot price gains. BlackRock is also working on a similar income-focused product.According to Nate Geraci, head of NovaDius Wealth Management, Goldman's move is a sign that established Wall Street institutions can no longer ignore Bitcoin. Geraci says it wouldn't be surprising if names like JPMorgan also take action soon.We clearly see that spot ETF competition is leading to price compression. MSBT's 0.14% share is putting downward pressure on BlackRock and Fidelity. In the coming days, BlackRock's IBIT earnings data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy announcements will remain the two most important variables shaping the market's direction.
