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Options expiries in the crypto market can create short-term pressure on prices, especially when large volumes are involved. The reason is simple: options writers may have an incentive to push the price toward the “max pain” level, where the largest number of contracts expire worthless. The $6.25 billion worth of Bitcoin options set to expire on Deribit on May 29 brings exactly this dynamic back into focus.Bitcoin Market Turns Its Attention to May 29The Bitcoin options market is focused on May 29. On Deribit, contracts worth a total of $6.25 billion will expire on that date, with open interest standing at 80,535 contracts. The numbers are large, but the key question is where the price will be pulled. The level currently drawing the most attention is $75,000. This price corresponds to the “max pain” point, meaning the level at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless and options writers face the least loss. According to Deribit data, there is a $394 million concentration of puts at the $75,000 strike. The picture is slightly different on the upside: $80,000 leads with $532 million in call positions.Bitcoin is trading at around $77,250 at the time of writing. The max pain level sits about 3% below the current price. This gap matters from a technical perspective because large options writers have an incentive to minimize their losses by pushing the price toward $75,000. That is why the “max pain gravity” theory often comes back into discussion ahead of major Deribit expiries.The put/call ratio stands at 0.86. In other words, there are 43,184 call contracts against 37,351 puts, showing that the market is net positioned for upside. Still, with Bitcoin trading in the $77,000-$78,000 range, max pain remains within reach.Part of the market is much more optimistic. On Thursday, the most actively traded instrument on Deribit was the BTC 29MAY26 $82,000 call, with 1,600 contracts changing hands at a volume of around $126 million. This figure looks more like a directional bet than a hedging position. Traders appear to be positioning for a breakout before expiry. However, $82,000 is roughly 6% above the current price. To reach that level, Bitcoin first needs to break through the $80,000 wall, where there is also a heavy call concentration.Deribit’s total open interest has reached $31.3 billion, surpassing BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which stands at $27 billion. This is not a coincidence. Crypto options volume has grown systematically since 2025 as institutional participation has increased. Hedge funds and market makers are now actively using derivatives strategies alongside spot ETFs. If more open interest has accumulated on a crypto options exchange than in the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, it is now clear that the derivatives market has reached a scale comparable to institutional products.There are eight days left until May 29. If Bitcoin breaks above $82,000, the call side wins. If the price is pulled back toward $75,000, the max pain thesis will be validated. For now, the market is stuck between these two scenarios, and both remain on the table.
SpaceX has officially disclosed its Bitcoin holdings for the first time in an S-1 filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of its public offering process. According to the filing, the company holds 18,712 BTC. As of March 31, 2026, this position had a market value of $1.29 billion. By the filing date, Bitcoin’s price increase lifted that value to $1.45 billion. The total acquisition cost of the company’s Bitcoin position stands at $661 million. This puts the average purchase price at roughly $35,324 per Bitcoin. At current price levels, the unrealized profit is around $789 million.Arkham and Bitcoin Treasuries estimates were far below the actual figureThe disclosure closed a major information gap in the market. In April 2026, on-chain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence had identified only 8,285 BTC in wallets attributed to SpaceX. Bitcoin Treasuries had provided a similar estimate. In other words, the actual figure is more than double the amount previously known to the public.For comparison, Tesla holds 11,509 BTC. With this figure, SpaceX moves clearly ahead of Tesla among corporate Bitcoin holders and ranks as the seventh-largest Bitcoin holder among public companies.Position unchanged since 2021SpaceX made its first Bitcoin purchase in early 2021. This coincided with the period when Elon Musk’s other company, Tesla, announced its $1.5 billion Bitcoin investment. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, the company held 25,724 BTC at the time. Its current position of 18,712 BTC suggests that around 7,012 Bitcoin were sold at some point. Tesla, by contrast, sold roughly 75% of its total position in 2022. SpaceX retained most of its holdings during that period.The position has remained unchanged since December 31, 2024. The company says it uses third-party custody providers, while maintaining direct ownership rights and control over the assets.Accounting rules brought volatility to financial resultsNew accounting standards that came into effect in 2024 require digital assets to be measured at fair value. This change had a direct impact on SpaceX’s income statement. The company recorded $955 million in unrealized gains from its Bitcoin position in 2024, followed by an unrealized loss of $112 million in 2025.The broader financial picture is more complex. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, while annual revenue grew 33% to $18.67 billion. The picture worsened in the first quarter of 2026, with the company reporting a $4.3 billion loss against $4.7 billion in revenue. Its accumulated deficit reached $41.3 billion by the end of March.A historically large public offeringSpaceX plans to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026. With a target offering size of around $75 billion, the IPO is set to become the largest transaction ever seen in capital markets. The company’s valuation is estimated to be between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.In its S-1 filing, SpaceX described its target market as “the largest accessible total addressable market in human history.” The company sees a $28.5 trillion opportunity across artificial intelligence, space and connectivity services. Funding needs for Starlink, orbital data centers and Mars colonization projects are also listed among the main reasons behind the public offering.AI giants such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also among the companies evaluating IPO processes in 2026. SpaceX, however, has become the name taking the most concrete step so far.
Digital asset investment products closed the week with net outflows of $1.07 billion. According to CoinShares’ latest weekly fund flows report, this marked the end of a six-week positive streak. The outflow was also the third-largest weekly outflow recorded so far in 2026.The report linked the selling pressure mainly to a more cautious investor mood triggered by renewed Iran-related geopolitical risks. The risk-off trend was especially concentrated in Bitcoin products. However, selective interest in altcoins continued, with 11 different assets recording weekly inflows of more than $1 million.Total assets under management fell from $159 billion in the previous week to around $157 billion. The table showed total AUM at $156.9 billion. Despite the weekly outflow, month-to-date flows remain in positive territory at $521 million. Year-to-date inflows stand at $4.88 billion.Bitcoin Funds See Sharp OutflowsBitcoin investment products were the weakest segment of the week. According to CoinShares data, Bitcoin funds saw $981.5 million in outflows. Even so, Bitcoin products still hold $3.94 billion in net inflows since the start of the year.The picture also weakened on the Ethereum side. ETH investment products recorded $249.3 million in outflows. This was the largest weekly outflow for Ethereum funds since January 30. Ethereum’s total year-to-date net flow remained at $137 million.Blockchain equity ETFs were also hit by the broader risk-off mood. According to the report, these products saw a total of $133 million in outflows. This shows that the pressure was not limited to spot crypto products, as selling was also felt in crypto-linked equity themes. By contrast, XRP and Solana stood out positively during the week. XRP products attracted $67.6 million in inflows, while Solana products drew $55.1 million. Inflows into both assets accelerated compared with recent weeks.Smaller assets also saw notable demand. Ton recorded $7.7 million in inflows, Sui $4.7 million, Ondo $4.1 million, Chainlink $3.9 million and Dogecoin $3.2 million. This suggests that investors continue to show interest in selected altcoin themes despite short-term pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum.Regionally, nearly all of the outflows came from the United States. U.S.-based products recorded weekly outflows of $1.14 billion. By contrast, Europe showed a more balanced picture. Switzerland saw $22.8 million in inflows, Germany $22 million, the Netherlands $7.5 million and Canada $12.6 million.Large outflows were also visible on the provider side. iShares products saw $487 million in outflows, while Fidelity recorded $305 million and ARK 21Shares saw $323 million leave its products. Grayscale posted weekly outflows of $84 million. Bitwise, meanwhile, stood out positively with $25 million in inflows.The report also noted that news flow around the CLARITY Act in the U.S. partially supported market sentiment. Although the full week ended in negative territory, Thursday saw $174 million in positive flows.
A new era is dawning in Japan where the cryptocurrency market will become more closely intertwined with traditional finance. Two of the country's largest online brokerage firms, SBI Securities and Rakuten Securities, are preparing to offer cryptocurrency mutual funds once the regulatory framework is finalized. According to Nikkei Asia, these products will allow investors to access crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum through their existing brokerage accounts. Currently in Japan, individual investors typically need to open a separate exchange account or use a wallet to buy cryptocurrencies. The new mutual fund model could make this process more familiar. Instead of directly buying cryptocurrencies, investors will be able to take positions through fund units based on these assets. This will make crypto investing more similar to buying stocks or mutual funds. SBI Securities' plan is based on distributing products developed by its group company, SBI Global Asset Management. The company's product portfolio is expected to include mutual funds and ETFs linked to liquid assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The SBI group aims to manage the entire process internally, from product development to distribution. Rakuten Securities is similarly moving forward within its own group structure. Products to be developed by Rakuten Investment Management are planned to be directly buyable and sellable through Rakuten's smartphone application. This approach could make access to crypto more practical, especially for individual users who invest through mobile applications. It's not just SBI and Rakuten; other major financial institutions in Japan are also not shying away from this area. According to a Nikkei survey of 18 major brokerage firms, 11 companies stated they would consider offering crypto investment funds once regulations become clearer. These companies include prominent names such as Nomura Securities, Daiwa Securities, and Mizuho-affiliated Asset Management One. SMBC Group is also reportedly forming an in-house working group on the subject. Behind this interest are regulatory steps taken by the Financial Services Agency of Japan (FSA). The FSA aims to amend the implementing regulations of the Investment Partnerships Act to add crypto assets to the list of "certain assets" that investment funds can hold. This process is expected to be completed by 2028. Activity on the regulatory sideIn parallel, the Japanese government approved a bill in April that would classify cryptocurrencies as financial products rather than means of payment. If the bill passes parliament, the new regulation could come into effect in the 2027 fiscal year. Thus, crypto assets will be brought under a regulatory framework closer to financial instruments such as stocks and bonds.These preparations in Japan coincide with the increasing global interest in crypto ETFs. In the US, spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, after which these products became an important entry point for institutional and individual investors. According to SoSoValue data, the net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have exceeded $100 billion. While Japan is proceeding more cautiously in this area, it is seen that large financial institutions are starting to take positions as regulatory uncertainty decreases. Crypto mutual funds can provide a significant convenience for Japanese individual investors. Users with an SBI or Rakuten account can access assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum without opening a new crypto exchange account. Having regulated financial groups handle custody, reporting, and transaction processes can also strengthen the perception of trust. However, this structure is not the same as directly owning cryptocurrency. Instead of holding Bitcoin or Ethereum in their own wallets, investors will own funds based on these assets. Therefore, factors such as management fees, custody structure, and counterparty risk will determine the attractiveness of the products.
Iran may be working on a remarkable model for the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical transit points for global energy trade. According to Fars News, a state-affiliated news outlet, the Iranian Ministry of Economy plans to manage ships passing through the strait not through direct transit fees, but through marine insurance and financial liability certificates. The use of Bitcoin in payments for this model has led the cryptocurrency market to closely monitor the issue.Bitcoin could be at the center of the insurance model in the Strait of HormuzAccording to the news, the platform called "Hormuz Safe" aims to offer insurance services for maritime cargo passing through the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and surrounding waterways. The system allows cargo owners to purchase digitally verifiable policies, which become active after payment is confirmed. The plan also includes providing the cargo owner with a signed digital receipt. However, it is not yet clear how far the project has progressed. The website mentioned in the report only shows a landing page, and basic details such as policy terms, insurer information, deductibles, and claims processes are not clearly shared. Therefore, it has not been possible to confirm whether Hormuz Safe is actually operational or whether any cargo owner is using the platform. According to Fars News, this model could generate over $10 billion in revenue for Iran. However, it has not been explained on what basis this estimate is derived. Nevertheless, the logic of the proposal seems quite clear. Iran may be trying to monetize its strategic position on the Strait of Hormuz not directly through "transit fees," but through an insurance and certificate structure.The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most sensitive energy corridors, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil trade passes. Therefore, any new payment or certificate system that could be implemented in the region concerns not only maritime transport companies but also energy markets, insurers, and international trade networks.The Bitcoin option, however, constitutes the most controversial part of the plan. Iran has long been trying to reduce its dependence on dollar-based financial systems due to sanctions. A marine insurance platform that accepts Bitcoin payments seems, in this respect, consistent with Iran's broader strategy to overcome the pressure of sanctions. However, such a system carries serious compatibility risks. Payments to Iranian-linked state institutions or entities close to the state do not eliminate the risk of sanctions, even if they don't pass through the banking system. Whether the payment is made in Bitcoin, stablecoins, or other digital assets, it creates an area requiring legal scrutiny for shipowners, trading companies, and insurance organizations. Some news reports have suggested that Iran may previously demand Bitcoin payment per barrel of oil from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, it is known that some shipping companies operating in the region in the past have been targeted by scammers demanding cryptocurrency under the guise of secure passage. Therefore, the possibility that the site circulating under the name Hormuz Safe is fake cannot be entirely ruled out. Iran's shift towards Bitcoin instead of centralized stablecoins like USDT is also noteworthy. This is because stablecoin issuers can freeze wallets associated with sanctions. Bitcoin, however, does not have a central issuer that can freeze funds. This feature makes Bitcoin a more convenient payment method for countries under sanctions.
Strategy, which has become one of the most closely watched publicly traded companies in the crypto market with its Bitcoin treasury, has taken a significant step toward simplifying its debt structure. The company has signed private agreements to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its 2029-maturity, 0%-rate convertible senior bonds. Strategy expects to pay approximately $1.38 billion in cash for this transaction. However, the final payment amount will be determined after the share price-dependent settlement period is completed. According to Strategy's Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the agreements were made with selected bondholders on May 14th. The transaction is expected to be completed on May 19th, provided the usual closing conditions are met. Following the closing, the company will cancel the repurchased bonds. Thus, approximately $1.5 billion of debt from the same 2029-maturity bond group will remain in the market. This step is considered one of the first major moves in Strategy's plan to reduce its growing debt burden in recent years. The company has previously used convertible bonds, stock sale programs, and various types of preferred share issuances to finance its Bitcoin purchases. Therefore, the buyback decision doesn't just mean reducing a single debt item; it also signals a rebalancing of Strategy's broader capital structure.How will Strategy finance the debt buyback?One of the most striking points in the document is that the company explicitly listed Bitcoin sales among the resources it could use for the buyback. Strategy stated that it could make payments with its existing cash reserves, proceeds from the sale of shares in the market, cash from the sale of securities, and/or proceeds from the sale of Bitcoin. This statement attracted particular attention in the market due to Michael Saylor's long-standing "no selling Bitcoin" approach. Strategy is the largest player in the sector in terms of institutional Bitcoin accumulation, and the value of the Bitcoin assets held by the company is estimated at approximately $65 billion. Therefore, the company's potential Bitcoin sale is closely watched not only from a balance sheet management perspective but also from a market psychology perspective. Saylor had previously stated that the company aimed to transform its convertible bonds into an equity-heavy structure over a period of three to six years. This strategy involves reducing debt and securing financing through a larger equity or preferred stock structure. The repurchase of bonds maturing in 2029 is a concrete part of this plan. STRC Volume Hits RecordOne of the prominent instruments in Strategy's capital structure is its STRC preferred stock, known as Stretch. The company's STRC product stands out with its perpetual preferred stock structure that makes monthly payments and offers an annual cash dividend yield of 11.5 percent. On Thursday, STRC trading volume reached a record high of $1.53 billion. This volume was more than four times the 30-day average of $331 million.The intense trading activity in the market is said to have strengthened Strategy's capacity to raise capital through the market. According to BitcoinQuant, this trading volume helped the company finance the purchase of approximately 11,707 Bitcoins. The majority of STRC transactions occurred at or above the $100 nominal value level during the day. Friday being the dividend payout date for STRC was also among the factors that increased trading volume.However, STRC's high dividend structure keeps the pressure on Strategy's long-term cash flow and debt management on the agenda. The company's continued accumulation of Bitcoin and its maintenance of preferential share dividends make its access to capital markets even more important. A new era for Bitcoin treasuryStrategy shares traded at around $178 after the opening on Friday. Although the stock has risen by approximately 18 percent since the beginning of the year, it remains well below the $457 peak seen last year. This shows that investors continue to be interested in the company's Bitcoin strategy, but are also closely monitoring its debt and dividend obligations. The company's decision to repurchase its 2029-maturity bonds reveals that Strategy is not only pursuing an aggressive institutional treasury model focused solely on Bitcoin accumulation, but is also attempting to readjust the financing side of that model. Once the repurchase is complete, $1.5 billion in debt will remain from the same bond portfolio. Additionally, the company holds approximately $1 billion in other bonds that investors may be forced to repurchase as early as September 2027.
April inflation data in the United States renewed caution across global markets. According to the Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual inflation rose to 3.8% in April. This marked the highest level in three years. Annual inflation had stood at 3.3% in March and 2.4% in February.Markets had expected inflation to rise to 3.7%. However, the reported figure came slightly above expectations. The main driver behind the increase was the sharp rise in energy prices. The conflict in the Middle East has started to weigh on the U.S. economy, especially through higher fuel prices.According to the data, gasoline prices rose 28.4% year over year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased from 2.6% in March to 2.8%. This raised concerns that price pressures may not remain limited to energy.Oil Prices Put Pressure on MarketsEnergy prices stood out as one of the most important parts of the report. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a sharp increase in global crude oil prices. This development directly affected pump prices in the United States. According to AAA data, gasoline prices reached $4.50 per gallon on Tuesday. Diesel prices also climbed to $5.64, approaching an all-time high.In recent days, optimism over a possible ceasefire deal had helped limit energy prices to some extent. However, that optimism weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s response to the latest proposal as “unacceptable.” Trump also said the possibility of a month-long ceasefire was under serious pressure.Higher fuel prices are creating a new source of pressure for household budgets and business costs in the United States. For this reason, some lawmakers proposed suspending federal fuel taxes to provide temporary relief for drivers. Still, such a move may have only a limited effect on inflation. The main source of the price increase appears to be the tightening in global energy supply rather than domestic tax rules.Bitcoin Tries to Stay Above $80,000Following the inflation data, the crypto market also showed a cautious outlook. According to market data, Bitcoin was trading around $80,803 at the time of writing. The leading cryptocurrency was down 0.37% over the past 24 hours, while its daily trading range stood between $80,487 and $82,041. The short-term chart shows that Bitcoin moved in a volatile range during the day. The price traded near $81,800 in the early hours before facing downward pressure and falling toward the $80,500 area. It later saw a limited recovery and moved back above $80,800. This move shows that investors are closely watching inflation data and energy-driven macro risks.Bitcoin’s gain of more than 13% over the past 30 days suggests that the broader trend has not fully weakened. However, the 24-hour decline and limited weekly loss show that the market has become more sensitive to new data. In particular, the renewed acceleration in U.S. inflation may strengthen expectations that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to rate cuts.For the crypto market, this picture can be read in two ways. On one hand, high inflation may support Bitcoin’s long-term “store of value” narrative. On the other hand, expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer could pressure risk assets. For this reason, Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above $80,000 will remain important for short-term market sentiment.Markets are now watching both energy prices and signals from the Fed. If inflation remains persistently above 3%, volatility may increase across a wide range of risk assets, from stocks to cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, the $80,000 level stands out as short-term support, while the $82,000 area appears to be the first resistance zone.
The Himalayan country of Bhutan has once again drawn attention in the crypto market with its Bitcoin holdings. According to onchain analytics platform Arkham, the Royal Government of Bhutan transferred around 100.44 BTC to another address on Tuesday. The transfer was valued at approximately $8.2 million at current market prices. The transaction is being seen as the latest step in Bhutan’s accelerating Bitcoin outflows in recent months. According to Arkham, the transfers took place in three separate transactions at 08:27 Turkey time. The BTC was sent to an unlabeled address beginning with “bc1qn,” which has not been linked to any institution or exchange.Bhutan’s Bitcoin Sales Draw AttentionArkham said more than $230 million worth of BTC has flowed out of Bhutan-linked addresses since the start of the year. This suggests that the country may have sold around $50 million worth of Bitcoin per month throughout 2026. Analysts noted that if Bhutan were to sell all of its BTC at current prices, it would exit the market with $767 million in onchain profit.Still, the exact purpose of the latest transfer remains unknown. Some previous transfers were linked to platforms such as Binance and investment firm Galaxy Digital. For this reason, the market is also interpreting the latest movement as a possible preparation for a sale.However, there is another possibility. The latest transaction may have been intended to move funds from an older Bitcoin address format to a newer one. According to Arkham, the BTC was moved from an old-style address beginning with “3” to a more modern SegWit address beginning with “bc1q.” This indicates that the transaction may have been a wallet update or fund consolidation rather than a direct sale.Bhutan Still Holds $252 Million Worth of BTCDespite the recent outflows, Bhutan still holds a significant amount of Bitcoin. According to Arkham data, the country holds around 3,119 BTC. These assets are currently valued at approximately $252.3 million.However, Bhutan’s Bitcoin balance has fallen sharply compared to last year. The country’s BTC holdings peaked at around 13,000 BTC in October 2024. Since the beginning of this year, the balance has dropped by nearly 3,000 BTC. This trend strengthens the view that Bhutan has been gradually reducing its Bitcoin reserves.Bhutan’s Bitcoin story differs from that of many other countries. While many governments usually obtain Bitcoin through seizures linked to illegal activity, Bhutan built most of its reserves through mining. The country’s state investment arm, Druk Holding & Investments, used Bhutan’s abundant hydroelectric resources to mine Bitcoin.This model has made Bhutan a notable example in the crypto world. Despite its small population and limited economic scale, the country long stood out as one of the largest state-linked Bitcoin holders in the world.According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, Bhutan ranks eighth among known nation-state Bitcoin holders. The countries ahead of it include the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, El Salvador, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan.Has Mining Activity Stopped?Recently, there has also been debate over whether Bhutan is still continuing its Bitcoin mining activity. According to Arkham, the last major BTC inflow of more than $100,000 to Bhutan-linked addresses took place more than a year ago. This has increased speculation that the country may have slowed down or completely halted its mining operations.
Michael Saylor’s long-repeated “never sell” stance has become the center of a new debate after Strategy’s latest earnings call. The company’s Executive Chairman openly stated for the first time that Strategy could sell Bitcoin to meet its dividend obligations. The comment marked a notable shift in tone for a company that has long treated its Bitcoin reserves as almost untouchable.Since its rebranding in 2025, Strategy has clearly positioned itself as a “Bitcoin treasury company.” Its business model is largely built around increasing its Bitcoin holdings, raising capital through shares and debt instruments, and using that capital to buy more BTC. However, the latest remarks show that this model is becoming more complicated under the pressure of dividend payments and market valuation.As of May 11, 2026, the company holds 818,334 BTC. The market value of this reserve is estimated at around $66 billion. This amount represents roughly 3.9 percent of Bitcoin’s total issuable supply. For this reason, the possibility of Strategy buying or selling Bitcoin is closely watched not only by the company’s shareholders, but also by the wider market. Saylor steps back: “If we sell one BTC, we will buy 10 to 20 more”After his remarks during the earnings call, Saylor partially softened his tone in interviews released over the weekend. While he acknowledged that Strategy may occasionally sell Bitcoin, he stressed that the company would continue to accumulate BTC on a net basis. According to Saylor, even if the company sells one Bitcoin, it aims to be in a position to buy 10 to 20 more during the same period.This approach suggests that Saylor is trying to redefine his “never sell” message rather than abandon it entirely. He said Bitcoin is capital and that the company should end each year with more BTC than it had at the beginning of the year. In other words, Strategy now accepts that Bitcoin can be used as a financial tool when needed, while still keeping long-term accumulation as its main goal.Strategy CEO Phong Le framed the issue in a similar way. Le said the company would consider selling Bitcoin to fund dividend payments only if doing so proved more beneficial for shareholders. Pointing especially to the “Bitcoin per share” metric, Le said the company would act based on mathematical calculations rather than ideology.Dividend burden increases selling pressureAt the center of the debate is Strategy’s growing structure of preferred shares. The company has several instruments carrying dividend obligations, including STRK, STRF, STRD and STRE. However, the most notable item is STRC. STRC carries a variable 11.5 percent dividend paid monthly in cash. Given its $8.5 billion outstanding face value, this program alone creates an annual payment burden of roughly $982 million.Under normal conditions, Strategy prefers to cover this burden through new share sales. The company’s so-called “flywheel” model is also based on this mechanism. When MSTR shares trade at a premium to the net value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings, Strategy can raise capital by issuing new shares. This capital is then used to buy more Bitcoin, while the increase in BTC holdings raises the company’s net asset value.However, this cycle becomes fragile when the company’s market value moves too close to the value of its Bitcoin reserves. Strategy’s mNAV ratio currently stands at 1.01. This shows that the company’s market value carries only a limited premium over its Bitcoin assets. If mNAV falls below 1, new share issuance could dilute BTC per share instead of increasing it. In such a scenario, the company would be left with several difficult options: borrowing more, issuing shares despite dilution, or selling Bitcoin.First-quarter lossStrategy’s first-quarter 2026 results also strengthened this debate. The company reported a loss of $12.54 billion in the first quarter. Of that amount, $14.46 billion came from unrealized losses tied to the decline in Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin’s temporary drop to $63,000 during the period showed once again how sensitive the company’s balance sheet is to BTC price movements.By contrast, revenue from the company’s software business stood at $124.3 million. This figure is far from enough to cover dividend obligations on its own. Although CEO Phong Le said the software and artificial intelligence business is gaining momentum and that the first quarter was the strongest software quarter in the past decade, the market’s main focus remains on Bitcoin reserves and the company’s financing model.The market reacted quickly after Saylor’s comments. Strategy shares fell more than 4 percent in after-hours trading following the earnings call. However, in the latest trading session, the stock closed up 4.31 percent at $187.59. Although the stock has recovered strongly over the past month, it remains in negative territory on a six-month basis.
Cryptocurrency investment products once again took center stage in the market last week with strong capital inflows. According to CoinShares data, global crypto asset investment products saw net inflows of $857.9 million. This extended the positive streak in funds to a sixth week, with weekly inflows reaching their highest level since April 24th.US-based products and Bitcoin funds were particularly decisive in the acceleration of capital inflows. Market sentiment was supported by optimism generated by progress on crypto regulations in the US. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill pointed to developments around the CLARITY Act and the consensus text prepared regarding stablecoin yields as key factors in this recovery.Bitcoin's rise above $80,000 during the week was also a key factor supporting fund flows. With this move, the leading cryptocurrency reached its highest level since the correction in February, while institutional risk appetite was seen to have revived. Total assets under management also rose to $160 billion. Bitcoin funds lead by a wide marginLooking at assets, the strongest inflow of the week occurred in Bitcoin products. Bitcoin-focused investment products attracted a net inflow of $706.1 million, bringing the total inflow since the beginning of the year to $4.9 billion. This figure shows that the majority of the weekly total inflow was concentrated on Bitcoin.Conversely, a different picture emerged in short Bitcoin products. Short Bitcoin products saw an outflow of $14.4 million. According to CoinShares, this was the largest weekly outflow in this category this year, indicating that some hedging positions were being closed as bullish expectations strengthened. Ethereum funds also recovered after the weak performance of the previous week. Ethereum investment products recorded an inflow of $77.1 million last week, following an outflow of $81.6 million seen the previous week. This turnaround revealed that investors are beginning to show renewed interest in major assets other than Bitcoin.On the altcoin side, Solana and XRP stood out. Solana products received inflows of $47.6 million, while XRP products received $39.6 million. The significant acceleration of movement in these two assets compared to recent weeks shows that market participation is not limited to Bitcoin alone. While Chainlink, Sui, and Litecoin saw more limited inflows, multi-asset products experienced outflows of $5.5 million.US products dominated the weekIn terms of regional distribution, US-based investment products were clearly ahead. Cryptocurrency investment instruments listed in the US saw net inflows of $776.6 million last week. This figure indicates a very strong recovery compared to the $47.5 million inflow in the previous week.There was a more measured but positive outlook on the European side. German-based products saw inflows of $50.6 million, Swiss-based products $21.1 million, and Dutch-based products $5 million. This picture showed that the recovery in the US was also supported by Europe.Among fund providers, BlackRock's iShares products led the week by a wide margin. iShares saw inflows of $733 million, while inflows since the beginning of the year reached $4.58 billion. ARK 21Shares recorded weekly inflows of $52 million, and Bitwise recorded $41 million. Grayscale, however, deviated from the general trend. The company's products saw outflows of $63 million last week, bringing the total year-to-date outflow to $636 million. While Fidelity products saw weekly inflows of $31 million, they also recorded a net outflow of $1.05 billion year-to-date.
Bitcoin rallied back above the $82,000 level over the weekend. The rise was driven by strong capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, a more supportive macroeconomic outlook, and continued institutional demand. A notable development was the transfer of 500 BTC by a Bitcoin whale who had been inactive for 12 years.Bitcoin briefly surged above $82,200 on Sunday, reaching its highest level since May 6th. Afterwards, the leading cryptocurrency continued trading around $80,700, recovering from the $66,000 region in recent weeks and gaining strong upward momentum. Analysts note that continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are creating a tightening of supply and providing a supportive effect on the price. According to the latest data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $622.7 million last week. This extended the positive inflow streak into ETFs to six weeks. In this six-week period, total net inflows exceeded $3.4 billion. Increased access to Bitcoin by institutional investors through spot ETFs has become one of the prominent factors in the short-term pricing of the market.Macro outlook supported BitcoinMacro conditions also played a role in the market's recovery. The partial easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limited the sudden risk-aversion movements stemming from oil and inflation. In addition, global liquidity conditions and the resilient outlook in equity markets created a more balanced environment for crypto assets.Nevertheless, uncertainty has not completely disappeared. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, persistent inflation concerns, and diplomatic impasses between the US and Iran are among the risk factors monitored by the markets. Although the possibility of extending the ceasefire and ending the war between the US and Iran has been raised, no clear result emerged from the recent talks.According to analysts, whether Bitcoin can remain above the $80,000-$82,000 band will depend on the continuation of new purchases. This region is being monitored as an important resistance area in the short term. If the price holds above this level, it could create a stronger technical outlook. However, pullbacks towards the $78,000-$80,000 range are also considered a healthy correction area.12-year Bitcoin whale moves 500 BTCAnother notable development during the same period as the rise in Bitcoin price came from an old whale wallet. According to on-chain data, an address that had been inactive for 12 years transferred 500 BTC to a new wallet on Sunday. The current value of the transferred Bitcoin is approximately $40.6 million.These 500 BTC arrived at the address on November 27, 2013. At that time, the value of this amount was approximately $457,000. In the 12 years that have passed, the value of these BTC has increased approximately 89 times. The reason for the transfer is not yet known. However, the reactivation of large wallets that have been inactive for a long time is generally interpreted in the market as a sign of a potential sell-off. While such movements don't always mean selling, they are closely monitored by investors. Large transfers from old wallets, especially during periods of strong price increases, can heighten expectations of profit taking. Last month, an Ethereum ICO participant who had been inactive since 2015 moved $23 million worth of ETH to a new address.
Bitcoin is trying to maintain its position around $80,000 following better-than-expected employment data from the US. The April non-farm payrolls data showed that the labor market remains resilient despite signals of an economic slowdown. This picture has brought expectations regarding both the Fed's interest rate path and risk appetite in the crypto market back into focus.Critical data released in the USAccording to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy recorded an increase of 115,000 jobs in April. Market expectations were around 62-65,000. Thus, the employment increase significantly exceeded expectations. However, the data was below the 185,000 employment increase in March. The March figure was previously announced as 178,000 and later revised upwards.The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, in line with expectations. This picture shows that the US economy has not completely cooled down, but has entered a more moderate pace of employment growth compared to previous months. The main question for the markets focuses on how the Fed will interpret this data. Strong employment figures could narrow the room for interest rate cuts, while signals of a slowdown in employment could keep alive the debate for a more cautious monetary policy in the coming months. Following the data release, Bitcoin initially traded around $79,900. However, the price came under renewed pressure during the day and fell below $80,000. According to the current data on the chart, BTC is currently priced around $79,553, having lost approximately 1.16% in the last 24 hours. The daily trading range is between $79,287 and $80,648. This suggests that Bitcoin is struggling to regain the $80,000 level in the short term. In recent days, Bitcoin's price movement isn't solely explained by macroeconomic data. Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, particularly the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, are putting pressure on global markets. Optimistic news flow regarding a potential agreement had previously pushed Bitcoin above $82,000. However, developments suggesting that tensions may continue weakened risk appetite and caused the BTC price to fall back below $80,000.The high level of oil prices also continues to be a separate pressure factor for the markets. Uncertainty regarding energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz keeps crude oil prices sensitive. The increase in energy prices risks pushing headline inflation upwards. At the same time, it can put pressure on consumer spending and hinder economic growth. Therefore, investors are following geopolitical developments at least as closely as US macroeconomic data.Uncertainty continues on the Fed side. The US central bank kept its policy interest rate stable in the 3.50-3.75 percent range last week. This decision showed that the Fed continues to seek a balance between slowing growth and persistent inflationary pressure. Better-than-expected employment data strengthened the view that the Fed may not rush into interest rate cuts.Markets are also watching for a possible change in the Fed leadership. It is stated that Kevin Warsh is expected to go through the confirmation process for the Fed chairmanship in the coming period. Such a transition is a key topic for risky assets because it could directly impact expectations regarding monetary policy.
US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that all markets have been reactivated after experiencing hours of disruption to trading services due to a technical outage originating from Amazon Web Services (AWS). During the outage, the exchange temporarily halted order matching and switched markets first to "Cancel Only" mode, then to auction mode. Users experienced difficulties trading via web and mobile applications, and transfer delays were observed on some networks. Initially, Coinbase support stated that users might experience reduced performance due to an AWS outage. A later update indicated the problem was linked to a more widespread AWS outage. According to the company's live status page, the disruption initially affected the Solana and ALEO networks. As of 4:00 AM UTC+3 on May 8th, delays were experienced in sending and receiving transactions on these two networks. Coinbase stated that trading, deposits, and withdrawals were not affected on these networks during this period. However, the problem spread to a wider area in the following hours. Coinbase initially reported a "degraded performance" outage, stating that users might be unable to trade on web and mobile platforms. The company explained that the disruption was caused by "increased temperatures" in the use1-az4 availability area in the US-EAST-1 region of AWS. A subsequent technical assessment by Coinbase indicated that systems were designed to withstand outages in a single AWS region. However, this incident affected multiple AWS regions, resulting in longer-term disruptions to core trading services. During the return to normalcy, the exchange initially put all markets into "Cancel Only" mode, allowing users to cancel existing open orders but not accepting new market or limit orders. Markets were then switched to auction mode, where users could place limit orders and track indicative opening prices. Order matching was suspended for at least 10 minutes. After the auction process concluded, overlapping orders were matched at the opening price. Coinbase Support has now announced that all markets are back open for trading on Coinbase Exchange. The company stated that the issue has been fully resolved, but that the technical team will be investigating the outage and details may change once AWS's official assessment is released.The outage came at a time when Coinbase was under pressure both financially and operationally. The company recently decided to reduce its workforce by 14% due to weak market conditions and an AI-focused restructuring. This decision reportedly affected approximately 660 employees. Furthermore, Coinbase's first-quarter results fell short of expectations. The company reported a loss of $1.49 per share, while analyst expectations were for a profit of $0.27. Revenue remained at $1.41 billion, while market expectations were around $1.52 billion.COIN shares fell after the outageCoinbase shares also came under pressure after the outage. COIN shares fell 2.53% in pre-market trading on Friday. It was also reported that shares fell by more than 5% in after-hours trading following the company's announcement of weaker-than-expected financial results on Thursday.
While expectations for the end of the year are strengthening again in the Bitcoin market, data from the options side shows that investors are not exhibiting one-sided optimism. According to Deribit data, the open interest in Bitcoin options with a December 25 expiry date has reached $6 billion. While this figure initially points to a very strong bullish expectation, the details reveal that the picture needs to be read more balanced.Bitcoin has gained approximately 33 percent in value since its year-to-date low of $60,130 on February 6th. This rise has brought more optimistic price targets for the end of the year back into the spotlight. In particular, the high open interest accumulated in call options above $115,000 has been interpreted as the market pricing in a strong upward possibility. However, high open interest in the options market does not always directly mean a price expectation.Deribit stands out in year-end optionsDeribit's share in December Bitcoin options is quite high. With $5.5 billion in open interest, the platform holds approximately 92 percent of the total market in this area. However, the actual value at expiry may be much lower than the current open position size. This is because a significant portion of these positions are not opened for direct directional betting purposes, but rather as part of hedging or neutral strategies. In the options market, investors don't just take simple positions betting on the price reaching a certain level. Strategies built with different expiries, different strike prices, and reciprocal positions can generate profit even if the price doesn't move sharply. Therefore, interpreting the $6 billion open position alone as "Bitcoin is definitely preparing for a major surge at the end of the year" doesn't seem healthy. Call options are dominant, but extreme targets exist on both sides.At Deribit, put options remain 56% lower than call options. This trend in the put-call ratio is not surprising, given that investors in the crypto market are naturally more optimistic. Nevertheless, the fact that there are $1.85 billion in open positions in call options above $115,000 is noteworthy. This picture shows that Bitcoin investors are keeping quite high prices on the table for the end of the year. However, similarly, there is a significant accumulation of positions on the sell side for extreme scenarios. Open positions in put options below $55,000 reach approximately $1 billion. This reveals that a considerable amount of positions have been opened in price zones considered "low probability" on both the bull and bear sides.In other words, concluding that the market is overly optimistic by only looking at call options may be incomplete. On the bear side, there is similarly positioning for sharply declining scenarios. The fact that approximately half of the open positions are tied to distant price targets on both sides shows that investors are not only making directional predictions but also trying to manage portfolio risk. Professional investors are pricing in downside risk.One of the indicators that gives clearer signals in option pricing is the delta skew metric. This indicator measures how investors premium upside and downside risks. On Deribit, six-month Bitcoin put options are trading at a 9% premium compared to equivalent call options. In neutral market conditions, this indicator is generally expected to remain in the range of minus 6% to plus 6%. A 9% put option premium indicates that professional investors are cautious about a potential pullback in Bitcoin. While this doesn't signal panic in the market, it reveals that downside risks are not being ignored. The lack of significant relief in derivatives markets despite Bitcoin's recovery towards the $80,000 level is also important in this respect. High-strike call options, on the other hand, allow investors to participate in large bullish scenarios at a relatively low cost. For example, a call option with a strike price of $120,000 offers an investor the potential to profit if Bitcoin reaches much higher levels by the end of the year, at a limited cost. Such positions may be part of an asymmetric return quest rather than a direct expectation of a strong bull run. Therefore, interpreting the $1.85 billion high-price target call option position solely as excessive bullish confidence can be misleading. Interest in the Bitcoin options market for the end of the year is high, but professional investors are simultaneously seeking protection against downside risks. The market remains cautious while keeping the possibility of an uptrend on the table.
Bitwise Asset Management CEO Hunter Horsley said that the long-referenced four-year cycle narrative in the crypto market is no longer valid. Speaking in Miami as part of Consensus 2026, Horsley stated that investors should not expect the market to recover according to the old timeline.According to Horsley, in the past, the crypto market was generally interpreted as three years of ups and one year of downs. However, the weak market outlook experienced last year indicated that this pattern has broken down. Therefore, the Bitwise CEO argued that the "four-year cycle is dead," suggesting that the sector has now entered a different phase. Emphasis on the new era in the crypto marketHorsley stated that old patterns and reflexes from the previous era no longer provide sufficient guidance to investors in the crypto market. According to him, the sector is moving towards a new structure that is more institutional, more widely participated in, and where fewer large players are decisive.While describing this change, the Bitwise CEO used Winston Churchill's frequently quoted saying, "This is not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning." According to Horsley, the crypto sector has now moved beyond its early stages and is approaching a more mature market structure. The topics of discussion are also changing in this new era. Horsley stated that traditional financial giants like Morgan Stanley are now more prominent in crypto conversations than in-house companies like Gemini. He also noted that with the stablecoin supply exceeding $300 billion, market interest is shifting not only to altcoins but also to payment and financial infrastructure.A "juggernaut" comment for Strategy's new instrumentAnother point Horsley highlighted was Stretch, a preferred investment vehicle developed by Michael Saylor's company, Strategy. This structure stands out with elements such as Bitcoin collateral, stable net asset value, and a target return of over 10%.The Bitwise CEO described Strategy's product as a "juggernaut" and said the structure is still in its early stages. According to him, while Stretch may seem unusual at first glance, it addresses one of investors' fundamental needs: a Bitcoin-collateralized, income-oriented, and price-capable instrument. Horsley also predicted that this structure could become widespread across the sector within the next 12 months. In this scenario, Bitcoin could find a greater place not only as a spot market or treasury asset, but also in fixed-income products. The Bitwise CEO stated that Michael Saylor's financial engineering approach plays a significant role in this transformation. However, the picture on the Strategy side is not entirely risk-free. While the company's STRC product reached record transaction volume last month, it was also noteworthy that Saylor acknowledged the possibility of selling from the Bitcoin treasury. This possibility is seen as a significant break from the company's long-held "no selling Bitcoin" approach. Strategy is the company that holds the most Bitcoin. The payment narrative for Bitcoin may returnHorsley also approached the idea of Bitcoin being seen only as a store of value with caution. According to him, the vision of Bitcoin as a payment tool from its early days has not completely disappeared; it simply means the market needed to solve a different issue first.The Bitwise CEO said that the main debate in the last 10 years has revolved around whether Bitcoin is valuable or not. Horsley noted that hundreds of millions of people hold BTC today, and there is a stronger acceptance of Bitcoin's value across broader segments of the market. According to Horsley, this creates a more favorable environment for the resurgence of Bitcoin's use cases in the payments sector.
